Five Predictions for the 2026 NFL Season
Football is almost back! The first preseason game, the Hall of Fame game, takes place this Thursday. As we did last year, we’re going to try and make some predictions for the 2026 NFL season. Trying to forecast things before teams play an exhibition game is a fool’s errand, but you can’t deny that it’s fun to do. The same themes from previous years apply: teams I think can go worst-to-first in their divisions, new expected playoff teams, impactful veteran QBs who changed teams, and #1 draft pick candidates. At the risk of looking idiotic later, let’s take a shot at some of these (possibly wild) predictions!
Worst-to-First Candidates
Since the most recent divisional realignment took place in 2002, a team has gone from worst in their division to first the following year in every season except 2014, 2019, and 2024. The NFL loves its parity. League officials adore the perception (with decent evidence backing it up) that a team can completely rebound in just one offseason. Unlike last year, where just one team looked plausible but two (New England and Chicago) actually pulled off the feat, we’ve got a couple of decent options in 2026.
First up are the New Orleans Saints. The NFC South is imminently winnable. Carolina did so last year despite an anemic offense and an 8-9 record. New Orleans finished last in a jumbled group, but they were arguably playing the best football by the end of the season. More importantly, second-year QB Tyler Shough made strides are he became more experienced. He’ll look to take advantage of new WR Jordyn Tyson and new RB Travis Etienne to earn a second-year leap. Aside from Atlanta, the rest of the division looks weaker than it was (which was very weak). The Saints have a real shot for the first time in a while.
The obvious call is the Detroit Lions. They’re comically a “last-place team” because 9-8 landed them there in a historically tough NFC North. Everyone seemed so shocked at their 2025 decline, but the answers are evident. Losing OC Ben Johnson to the coaching cycle really messed with the running game. Former LT Taylor Decker’s injury stunted the offensive line. And I could go on all day about the secondary injuries suffered by the Lions. All three other divisional rivals are equal to or worse than their former selves, while Detroit buffed up. Add a last-place schedule, and the Lions are a great bet to return to the top of the heap.
New Playoff Teams That Missed the Dance in 2025
Another remarkable trend demonstrating parity in the NFL is that each year, 5-7 teams who didn’t make the playoffs in a given season will earn a berth the following year. Who do we expect to exchange playoff spots this time around? According to my worst-to-first picks, the Saints and Lions are excellent choices to crash the playoff party. New Orleans can probably only get in as division champs, as their ceiling doesn’t project to be good enough for a Wild Card spot in a tough NFC. Detroit can make the postseason through either route. They’re good enough to contend, not just make a single appearance in January.
The Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals are two teams that could be playoff threats if their defenses merely became top-20 units. Both of them have elite offenses if their star QBs and receivers stay healthy. They just need the other side of the ball to carry its weight. Elsewhere in the AFC North, if you believe that John Harbaugh was a great coach but his message got stale, then Jesse Minter, a Harbaugh protégé, should have you excited for the Baltimore Ravens. Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs are a buy-low candidate. As long as QB Patrick Mahomes recovers well from his ACL tear, that team can never be counted out.
The hard part comes next: I need to pick 6 teams that will miss the playoffs to make room for my choices above. The NFC West still seems elite enough to send 3 teams to the dance, so we need to find our NFC fallers elsewhere. Two of them could come from the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers have barely made the playoffs each year, and edge rusher Micah Parsons may miss part of the season. GB also lost players on the OL and at WR. The Chicago Bears are due for some regression. They can’t turn over opponents as often this year, and they can’t sneak up on teams anymore. Now the hunted, Chicago may crack.
My final NFC team is a dark horse: the Philadelphia Eagles. You’ve seen evidence of issues, and WR AJ Brown is gone as a result. QB Jalen Hurts is under pressure, and he’s got a rookie OC in Sean Mannion. I can envision the wheels coming off if the team struggles early. Over in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers could see their non-losing season streak end with HC Mike Tomlin’s departure. QB Aaron Rodgers is back but no younger than before, and the defense quietly took a step backward last year. I respect Mike McCarthy and the veterans on that team, but eventually they won’t be able to maintain their previous standards.
The New England Patriots made the Super Bowl last year, but could they miss the playoffs entirely? NE had the easiest schedule since 1999, and now they’ll be playing a first-place slate. I thought they were already overrated. Add in the Mike Vrabel distraction, and a decline is probable. The Jacksonville Jaguars surprised in Liam Coen’s first season as coach, but running it back will be tough. In addition to a tougher schedule, the Jags had the worst offseason of nearly anyone, with loads of talent heading elsewhere and a poor draft class. They’re a significantly worse team on paper, and that could pose a problem in a crowded AFC.
How Will Teams’ New Veteran QBs Fare?
This year, the number of new veteran starters is a variable with a fairly wide range. We know that Malik Willis will be starting in Miami, and Geno Smith has been named the Jets’ QB1. Beyond those two, nothing is guaranteed. Kirk Cousins seems likely to begin the season as Las Vegas’ starter, while Kyler Murray is favored to win Minnesota’s QB competition. The biggest wild card is Atlanta. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr will be battling for the starting role. The Falcons’ new regime did not draft Penix, and Tagovailoa seems to fit HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense better, so I’ll include him as a potential veteran starter on a new team.
Willis is in for a rough time. I’ve never been high on him as a passing talent, but he did very well under Matt LaFleur in Green Bay. This Packers outpost in Miami is nothing like the original. Willis is going to have an inferior line, the worst pass catching group in the NFL, and a defensive head coach. Elsewhere in the AFC East, Geno Smith is moving to a far better situation than he had in Vegas. His offensive line is worlds above what he played behind last year, and the weapons are solid. Smith isn’t a franchise QB, and his Seattle spark is long gone, but he’s decent enough. This reunion for the 2013 second-rounder could be fun.
Cousins is someone I feel is perennially underrated. He had no chance in Atlanta once the Falcons drafted Penix, and yet when he was healthy, he played really well. Las Vegas is a different challenge, with only TE Brock Bowers as a high-end option in the passing game. Cousins will give way to #1 pick Fernando Mendoza at some point, but his $20M salary this year suggests that the team means it when they say they want to let the rookie sit and learn. I think that would be the best approach. Think of how Alex Smith had a really nice season before ceding the KC job to Patrick Mahomes. Cousins could be in for a similar story.
Minnesota has an underwhelming QB competition between Murray and JJ McCarthy. I expect Murray to win it, if only because McCarthy is so bad. Murray showed flashes with Arizona during his time as their #1 pick, but they paid him $36M to play for someone else for a reason. Throwing to Justin Jefferson is an exciting opportunity, but Murray rarely makes use of his best pass catchers. He’s much more inclined to run, so while the Vikings may be competitive, Murray is always an injury risk. My guess is that we’ll see both passers before the year is done as part of a frustrating season in Minneapolis.
The Atlanta situation is highly intriguing. Penix was a former #8 pick, but nothing is owed to him, and he’s coming off another ACL tear. Tagovailoa’s time in Miami ended on a sour note, but he had moments of brilliance, particularly in a fantastic 2023 season. His offensive strengths (accuracy and timing throws to the intermediate part of the field) mesh so well with what Stefanski likes in his QBs. Behind a good offensive line, Tagovailoa will have time to play point guard with big targets in WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. Plus, he’ll have Bijan Robinson as his RB. This is a great chance for a career revival.
Rookies That Will Make an Immediate Impact
Rookies are tough to project. Many need time to adapt to the speed and technique of the NFL, whereas others hit the ground running and produce right away. That said, fans expect their QB picks to star immediately. I’m sorry to disappoint, but this class isn’t likely to prove in that regard. Las Vegas’ #1 pick Fernando Mendoza will likely sit for a while, and I’m not expecting much from the other rookie QBs. The Rams’ Ty Simpson will only play if disaster strikes Matthew Stafford. Maybe 3rd-rounder Carson Beck gets some run if Arizona is out of the race. Same with Cade Klubnik and the Jets. Otherwise, there’s not much to see here.
Fortunately, the other positions have more excitement. The Notre Dame first-round RB duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will make big impacts for Arizona and Seattle, respectively, but in very different ways. Love can rack up major volume for a losing Cardinals team, whereas Price may split time with a returning Zach Charbonnet and maybe even George Holani. Still, the latter’s touches will be far more impactful. As a sleeper, keep an eye on Chiefs’ first-rounder Emmet Johnson. Kenneth Walker always does best in a time share, and Kansas City needs a robust running game to restore their offense to its former glory.
The WR class is plentiful, and a bunch of players will see high snap counts. Tennessee’s Carnell Tate may underwhelm a bit relative to his status as a #4 pick given that he’s likely a high-end WR2, but his excellent route-running will assist QB Cam Ward’s development. That’s why he’s there in the first place. Jordyn Tyson brings explosiveness to the Saints, where he is expected to provide the same benefit to 2nd-year QB Tyler Shough. Tyson is actually my favorite WR in the class. Philadelphia’s Makai Lemon simply has to replace AJ Brown. He’ll be good, but not Brown good. The Eagles no longer have a big-bodied X wideout.
I’m grouping a trio of Browns together because Cleveland completely remade their WR room and offensive line. They nabbed the class’ best tackle in Spencer Fano. Whether his arm length causes any trouble at LT will be something to watch. Regardless, he’ll excel at some spot on the line. Cleveland spent their next two picks on WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Of the two, I expect Boston to make the bigger initial impact. The Browns’ possible starting QBs both struggle with accuracy. As a result, I can see the 6’4″ Boston being a very welcoming target. Both players will be dependent on (likely) poor QB play.
The rest of the stellar tackle class (with 7 first-rounders total) is more boom-or-bust. Blake Miller, the guy taken right in the middle of that group by Detroit, will be most consequential. With Penei Sewell moving to LT, Miller will have to prove his competence at RT. The Lions’ season depends on it, but Miller is a pro-ready prospect. On the opposite end of the spectrum, New England’s Caleb Lomu is said to be in need of some development. My suspicion is that he’ll come into play more as the season goes on. The Patriots can’t go through Will Campbell’s struggles again, which is why they drafted Lomu in the first place.
In another grouping, we’ve got a quartet of highly drafted Buckeyes defenders. OLB Arvell Reese was the first guy off the board, but he might need some time to get settled with the Giants. LB Sonny Styles, who’s now with the rival Commanders, is a DROY candidate. There’s just so much elite athleticism to work with for HC Dan Quinn. S Caleb Downs of the Cowboys could’ve gone #1 overall if he played a more important position. He may already be the best player on Dallas’ defense. Finally, 2nd-round DT Kayden McDonald could feast for the Texans, as he’ll be protected by 2 elite edge rushers. His run defense will pop right away.
The corner who MUST excel is Mansoor Delane in KC. Losing Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson in one offseason stings, but Delane can lessen the blow. He rose to the top of the class as a typical LSU DB: smooth, instinctive, and active around the ball. I know DC Steve Spagnuolo will do great work with him. Lastly, don’t forget about Raiders 4th-round CB Jermod McCoy. If not for a knee injury, he would’ve been the first CB taken. He’s a truly complete player on a team that badly needs him to be one. While I can’t say that his knee will hold up long-term, as a rookie, McCoy could be one of the league’s breakout stars.
Race for the #1 Overall Draft Pick
A few teams are clearly at the bottom of the heap this year. Tennessee and the Jets both improved enough to avoid the dishonor of picking first, and even the Raiders look better than they did a year ago thanks to their hiring of Klint Kubiak as HC and an infusion of talent under center. By far, the worst teams are the Dolphins, Browns, and Cardinals. All three took steps back as far as their rosters, none has an answer at QB, and their fans already know to expect the worst. However, only one of them can earn the #1 pick, and I believe it could be the Arizona Cardinals. First, I’ll explain why I decided against the others.
Miami has arguably the least talent among the three teams mentioned above. Their biggest impediment to the top pick is the fact that they play in an easier division. They could steal a game against the Jets and/or Patriots, which might be enough to ruin their tank job. Cleveland is in the worst boat as far as QBs are concerned, with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders both looking awful. Despite losing DC Jim Schwartz and DE Myles Garret though, I just think that their defense is enough to keep them (barely) afloat. New DE Jared Verse and existing players like CB Denzel Ward and LB Carson Schwesinger are plenty good.
That leaves us with Arizona, whose QB just started practicing once he managed to extort the team. Jacoby Brissett was better than Kyler Murray, but he still won just 1 game last year in 12 starts. The Cards have a poor defense, a middling line, and a #3 pick wasted on RB. Still, their biggest issue is their schedule. As an NFC West team, the Cardinals can probably pencil in a second consecutive 0-6 divisional record with Seattle, San Francisco, and the Rams as their foes. Putting all of that together, I think it’ll be tough for another team to beat them for the #1 pick, mainly because everyone will be beating them on the field.