2026 NFL Schedule Release Takeaways
The much awaited 2026 NFL schedule has been released, and fans are already trying to determine whether their teams have a shot to win it all. Vegas has posted win totals for the 32 teams, and websites everywhere are poring over each detail hidden in these schedules. I’m not going to bother with any of that. I’ve looked at the schedules and the release itself, and I’ll share my top takeaways. If I didn’t touch on your team, their schedule is probably average. I tried to boil it all down to easy-to-comprehend, overarching notes to give you a sense of what’s in store. Predicting too much this early is probably foolish (but admittedly fun).
Lions Poised to Return to the Top of the NFC North
As with San Francisco last year, the Lions are an injury-plagued team that unexpectedly finished last in their division. It’s not even like they were bad: they finished 9-8! They got a nice reward though in the form of a last-place schedule. We saw the 49ers take advantage of a soft slate to rebound and make the playoffs with double-digit wins. Detroit is primed to do the same with a very advantageous schedule. Games against the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, Titans, and Giants should be layups, and their divisional slate for 2026 is the NFC South, the league’s worst division from top to bottom. It’s a really nice schedule.
Other factors are also helping Detroit’s cause. First, within their division, Chicago isn’t likely to win as many fluky one-score games as they did last year. That’s a simple matter of regression to the mean. Green Bay could take a step back too, as OT Rasheed Walker and WR Romeo Doubs are gone, while OLB Micah Parsons is coming off a torn ACL. Minnesota, the team that shockingly swept the Lions last year, are a bit weakened as well. They still don’t know who their QB will be, but at best, it’s just Kyler Murray. Defensive losses caused by a mismanaged cap, such as OLB Jonathan Greenard, will sting badly.
The Lions have some improvements of their own as well. One thing that can’t worse than it was last year is their health. Detroit had an unnatural amount of injuries, especially in the secondary. Their great starting safety duo, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, barely played last year. LT Taylor Decker struggled while playing injured, but now rookie first-rounder Blake Miller will man the right side while All-Pro Penei Sewell will move to LT. All of the play-makers are back, and DC Kelvin Sheppard is more in control in his 2nd season in charge of the defense. A multi-game improvement is definitely in the cards, as is an NFC North title.
Christmas and Week 18 Matchups Between Seahawks and Rams Could Decide SB Again
Sticking with the NFC, where most of the powerhouse teams seem to reside, two NFC West foes played the de facto Super Bowl this past season. Seattle won their second regular-season matchup against the Rams, claimed home-field advantage, and beat LA again in the NFC Championship game. I can see an identical scenario playing out in 2026. The Seahawks definitely lost some talent from their title-winning team. RB Kenneth Walker, CB Tariq Woolen, S Coby Bryant, and OLB Boye Mafe are among the departures. They’re still a top-tier team though, and the road to Super Bowl LXI goes through them until further notice.
Los Angeles nearly topped their rivals, but a leaky pass defense thwarted their hopes. GM Les Snead made sure that would not happen again. He imported a pair of good Chiefs CBs, trading for Trent McDuffie and signing Jaylen Watson as a free agent. Despite making the dumbest first-round pick in the league last month, the Rams are an improved team. Their one weakness, that shaky secondary, has been completely rectified. As long as QB Matthew Stafford stays healthy, I might even favor LA to win the title. Regardless of how you rank the Rams and Seahawks, they’re the primary contenders for this year’s crown.
All of that makes their pair of divisional games this upcoming season even more critical. Seattle will host LA on Christmas day before heading to California during week 18. If these teams are as close as they seem through 17 weeks, that second matchup could be flexed to Sunday Night Football. The league knows that these games will be must-see TV, as evidenced by their primetime slots. Whoever wins that particular tiebreaker will likely win the NFC West, with home-field advantage possibly on the line. Out of all the games that got announced on Thursday, these two tilts drew the most attention from me.
International and Streaming Service Games are Completely Out of Control
I just complimented the NFL’s savviness when it comes to TV scheduling. However, my praise stops at “TV”. The league’s decisions regarding the International Series and deals with streaming services are incredibly poor. Regarding the first topic, the slate of international games becomes more shamefully bloated every season. We’re up to a record 9 this year, and commissioner Roger Goodell wants to reach 16 of these annoyances per campaign. As always, we’ll have games in London, England. Other returning countries include Germany (Munich), Spain (Madrid), Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), and even Mexico (Estadio Azteca is back).
I’m on record as being against the Spain, Brazil, and Mexico games in particular. To make matters worse, we’re now adding Paris, France and Melbourne, Australia. Paris is more or less the same as Madrid as far as logistics go, so I want to focus on Australia. That game is a blight upon the league. As you know, that country is on the other side of the world. The time change is so drastic that Seattle’s season-opening game as SB champs will have to be on WEDNESDAY of week 1 to accommodate it. Much to the chagrin of 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, his team and Rams will be the participants in that week 1 contest.
Shanahan is right to be infuriated. Teams that have to go out of the country have no rest that week. Just look at the miles to be traveled by each team and note who’s #1 and #2. Those games are also often fluky, so odd results may happen. Additionally, squads are in an unfamiliar city on a field of indeterminate quality. What could go wrong? It goes without saying that no divisional matchup should be played on foreign soil. Yet that’s exactly what will happen for these NFC West powerhouses. I really hope Goodell pulls back on his ambitions. As former NFL great JJ Watt said, this system is really turning into a “traveling circus“.
Moving on to the streaming services, the NFL has trended this way for a bit. Amazon Prime bought the rights to Thursday Night Football and Black Friday games first. Then, Netflix and Peacock came in with Christmas Day and Wild Card games, respectively. We’re witnessing the number of games that won’t be on cable increase again this year, and that’s a bad trend. Each time a new streaming service enters the fray, it increases the cost fans incur to watch every possible game. That fact has even been noted by the US President and Justice Department, who are currently reviewing the league’s distribution model for antitrust violations.
An easy analogue here is the NBA. That league sold much of their media rights package to Amazon and Peacock. As a result, many games during the 2025-2026 season were only available on Prime and Peacock. That includes multiple playoff games, including some the conference semifinals that aired this weekend. So far the NFL has only given streaming platforms one postseason game per season, but who says they’ll stop there? This is a slippery slope, and football fans might soon have to subscribe to several services just to watch their favorite sport. Nobody outside of ownership and the league office wants this.
Cardinals, Dolphins Draw Tough Schedules in Pursuit of #1 Overall Draft Pick
Consider this a bit of a teaser for my “Five Things” post later in the summer. Arizona and Miami are undoubtedly teams that would be inclined to tank. The Cardinals drafted QB Carson Beck, but they seem to be punting on their QB decision until 2027. Miami stripped down their entire roster, making it nearly impossible for them to win many games. If these schedules are any indication, they won’t have to try that hard to lose. Miami has the league’s 2nd-hardest slate, while Arizona slots in at #3. Each team has an opponent win percentage of .538 or better (based on 2025 records). That’ll set up an interesting dynamic.
Even without accounting for the schedules, these two teams were probably the biggest favorites to pick first in 2027. That is expected to be a far stronger draft than the 2026 edition, making the #1 pick critical. If Beck or new Dolphin Malik Willis fail to lock down QB1 jobs, both teams will be after a passer. Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah, and more are creating buzz around the league. You can sure that Arizona and Miami are doing their homework. These teams also share divisions with the reigning conference champs. With a clear lack of talent and brutal schedules, expect one of these teams to pick first next April.
Bears and Patriots Will Have to Prove They Can Do It Again with Harder Schedules
I told you who had the 2nd- and 3rd- hardest schedules, but #1 belongs to Chicago. Similarly, New England has the 6th-hardest slate (for those wondering, Cleveland has the easiest schedule). That matters because these two teams rose from worst to first in their divisions last year, partially because of very favorable schedules. Both saw massive coaching improvements and big leaps from 2nd-year QBs, but feckless opponents definitely played a role in their rises. Now they’ll have to contend with first-place schedules, making their path back to the top much more difficult. Let’s go through each team’s case in more detail.
Chicago’s last-place 2025 schedule was dampened a bit by playing in the brutal NFC North. This past season, every team in the division finished above .500. New HC Ben Johnson greatly aided QB Caleb Williams, and the offense took off. I must note, however, that the Bears had some very fluky wins, whether on last-second desperation plays or wild comebacks. Those outcomes don’t consistently go a team’s way every year, and just a couple less favorable results would be problematic. I still think Chicago is building things the right way. They just need to be even better than last year to reach the same spot given their schedule.
New England had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year. In fact, most of their opponents were cupcakes, even in the playoffs! A Chargers team without any tackles, Houston with CJ Stroud self-destructing, and Denver in a snowstorm without Bo Nix was almost a joke. In 2026, the Pats’ first opponent will be Seattle (for the 1st week-1 SB rematch since 2016 and only the second such game all-time). You see where this is going. Last-place opponents are being swapped for the 49ers, Bears, Lions, and Chiefs. If I had to pick any one team to regress heavily without actually playing any worse than before, it would be New England.
When Could Each of the Rookie QBs Make Their NFL Starting Debuts?
With all due respect to the rest of the positions on a football team, people pay the most attention to quarterbacks (by far). Since the schedule release comes shortly after the draft, rookie QBs specifically are on the minds of fans. So let’s take a look at when each of the rookie QBs selected in top 5 rounds will make their first starts. Some ground rules: first, this assumes that nobody is becoming a starter due to an incumbent’s injury (which very well could happen). Second, I’m only looking at QBs taken in the first 5 rounds, as the rest are not likely to play this year because they were selected as backups or long-term developmental options.
Unlike in most years, Raiders’ #1 pick Fernando Mendoza is not likely to start in week 1. That’s because of two reasons. First, the team paid Kirk Cousins $20M, which is way too much for a backup who you don’t expect to at least begin the season as QB1. Second and more importantly, minority owner Tom Brady is influential in football decisions. He probably recalls how much help sitting and learning was for his own career. As a result, he will want to give that same perceived benefit to Mendoza to ensure his long-term success. I happen to agree with that approach. If Cousins struggles though, Menodza may start by the week 13 bye.
The other first-round QB isn’t expected to play at all. Ty Simpson will not start for the Rams unless Matthew Stafford gets hurt, which nobody wants. He’s an insurance policy and a pick for the future, which is why I disliked the selection so much. Carson Beck, Arizona’s 3rd-round selection, is the guy who’s most likely to see meaningful action. His impediments are Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett. Those aren’t exactly world-beaters, and playing in the league’s toughest division means that losses could mount quickly. At that point, I expect the Cardinals to give the rookie a chance to show what he can do.
The other third-round rookie, Pittsburgh’s Drew Allar, shouldn’t start this year. Aaron Rodgers is back, and I think Allar is 4th on the depth chart. He supposedly has to unlearn everything bad he got from Penn State, which could take a while. Cade Klubnik has an unusually high chance of playing games this year for a 4th-rounder. The Jets only have Geno Smith to worry about, and he will either bomb or make the team too competitive. Eventually, NYJ could turn to Klubnik. Eagles 5th-round pick Cole Payton is an interesting guy, but Jalen Hurts is QB1 (at least this year), and Tanner McKee is still there. Payton will sit and observe.