Wild Card Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
Now that we’ve said goodbye to more than half of the league’s teams, it’s time for the remaining 14 to prove that they should advance in the playoffs. This week, 12 are competing. Kansas City and San Detroit earned the byes in their respective conferences, getting the week off. Mistakes are amplified in the postseason because there are no do-overs. One loss, and your season ends. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how each (2) through (7) seed did in my wild card takeaways. The games are sorted based on when they occurred (earliest first), separated by conference.
AFC
(4) Houston Texans 32, (5) Los Angeles Chargers 12
The first 1.5 quarters and the rest of the game could not have been more different. Los Angeles took their opening drive and scored a field goal, imposing their will on the ground. Houston was a mess, with WR John Metchie (4/28) fumbling possession away on the Texans’ first offensive play (he also had a bad drop). However, LA only converted the turnover into 3 points. Texans QB CJ Stroud nearly threw an INT on the next drive, but LB Daiyan Henley dropped it. Even when the Texans blocked a punt, the Bolts got lucky, and it rolled 35 yards. Stroud did throw a real INT shortly thereafter on a floater to nobody in particular.
Houston got their groove midway through the second quarter. Chargers QB Justin Herbert threw an INT on the play after Stroud’s pick, firing a deep ball across his body. A couple of drives later, pinned at their own 1, the Texans started to move. Stroud had a 34-yard pass to WR Xavier Hutchinson on a busted play where he dropped the snap, marking their first 3rd-down conversion of the entire game. The possession finished with a Nico Collins (7/122) TD and a 7-6 lead. Collins was and is the focal point of this offense. That was key because Houston couldn’t run the ball in the first half and threw on most plays.
Following a Chargers 3 and out, Stroud led an FG drive that took just 24 seconds, using a season-long 27-yard scramble to get into position. Momentum appeared to swing back in the 3rd quarter when Texans RB Joe Mixon fumbled inside the Bolts’ 30. LA drove down to the Houston 34, where coach Jim Harbaugh exhibited shades of Brandon Staley and threw the ball on 4th and 2. The play failed. Houston took over from there, even though the officials tried to stymie them. One team usually isn’t much less disciplined than another, but the Texans had 8 penalties for 86 yards, while LAC lost just 10 yards on 2 fouls.
During one sequence, the Texans got called for a hold, threw an INT in the end zone hold, on the next play, and incurred a personal foul penalty on the runback. The pick was overturned, and Houston salvaged a field goal. Down 16-3, the Chargers went into a full meltdown mode. Herbert tossed a pick six as if it were intended for CB Eric Murray. The QB had 3 INTs all regular season but threw FOUR in this game alone. One wasn’t his fault, as it bounces off the hands of TE Will Dissly (that was his second big drop of the game). The other 3 were abysmal. Even when good things happened, LA messed them up.
Herbert (14/32, 242 yards, TD, 4 INTs) threw a missile to rookie WR Ladd McConkey (9/197/1) for an 86-yard TD, but the PAT went awry. Kicker Cameron Dicker had his kick blocked back at him, and he batted it down instead of catching it. The ball went to a Texan, who returned it for 2 points. LA had been great in the running game on both sides of the ball, but they finished with just 50 yards on 2.8 YPC, while Houston ended up gashing their defense in the second half. Mixon (25/106/1) became a force, and the LA defense simply looked fatigued. Stroud (22/33, 282 yards, TD, INT; 6/42 rushing) also caught fire during this rout.
The only good thing I can say about LA is the play of McConkey. That receiver is quickly becoming a star. Otherwise, it’s exactly as I stated in my power rankings: the Chargers can’t beat good teams, and they find creative ways to lose games that they should win. Regarding the Texans, I still can’t take them seriously as contenders with this bad of a line (3 sacks allowed), but Stroud had a good day, and the defense is nasty. The line, led by DE Will Anderson Jr (1.5 sacks) sacked Herbert 4 times, and CBs Derek Stingley (2 INTs, 5 PBUs) and Kamari Lassiter (INT) form a formidable tandem. Is that enough to beat the Chiefs? We’ll find out!
(3) Baltimore Ravens 28, (6) Pittsburgh Steelers 14
Facing a division rival for a 3rd time in one season can be tough, especially for such bitter rivals like these two. The last time these teams matched up, Baltimore cruised to victory, but it was competitive. With Ravens WR Zay Flowers out due to a knee injury, Pittsburgh seemed to have an opening. Instead, it was the least-competitive meeting of the three. The Steelers punted on all 4 non-kneel-down drives in the first half, looking completely lifeless. A first-play drop by TE Pat Freiermuth was probably a dose of foreshadowing. We know about this offense though; the poor play of the defense shocked me much more.
I’m not at all used to a “Steel Curtain” behaving so much like aluminum. They bent every which way the Ravens demanded, losing the physicality battle badly. Credit Baltimore’s game plan, which featured much more running from QB Lamar Jackson now that the games matter so much more. After a muffed punt by the Ravens, they started at their own 5 but went on a 7-minute march that ended in a Jackson TD pass. Two drives later, they consumed nearly 8 minutes over 13 plays, all of which were runs. This time, it was RB Derrick Henry who reached the end zone. When Pittsburgh punted a 4th time, we saw another side of Baltimore.
Moving quickly this time, the Ravens scored yet another TD in just 1:51 before halftime, covering 90 yards. Pittsburgh finally showed up in the second half, with a 98-yard TD drive. QB Russell Wilson (20/29, 270 yards, 2 TDs) put together a great half of football, but he took 4 sacks and wasn’t aided by his team’s 29 rushing yards. The defense also didn’t step up, as Henry ran for a 44-yard TD right after the Steelers’ score. Henry (26/186/2) became a menace as expected as the game went on. Steelers WR George Pickens then added a great TD catch and finally got involved, but that would be Pittsburgh’s last score.
Baltimore chewed up the rest of the clock and could have scored at least 10 more points if not for an interest in sportsmanship. Jackson (16/21, 175 yards, 2 TDs; 15/81 rushing) was unstoppable no matter how he chose to attack, undoubtedly aided by Henry’s presence. DC Zach Orr had his defense in top shape as well, making this team even scarier in bringing their winning streak to 5 games. The Ravens now head to Buffalo for a rematch, having dominated the Bills at home earlier in the season. Both of these squads are far more complete teams now, so we’re set up for a potentially incredible showdown.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has now lost 5 in a row, and they haven’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Change could come at QB given how the offense faded, but I wonder if more changes are on the horizon. The fans, though pleased by the team’s inability to post a losing record under coach Mike Tomlin, are sick of these first-round playoff exits. Something is wrong here, and it all feels stagnant. It seems like we’ve been talking about bad Pittsburgh offenses since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Perhaps more concerning is how the once-vaunted defense no longer resembles its former self. The Rooney family has decisions to make.
(2) Buffalo Bills 31, (7) Denver Broncos 7
These two teams gave us an epic battle for a few possessions. Denver got the ball first and looked great, marching right down the field. RB Javonte Williams (7/29) was making people miss, and QB Bo Nix (13/22, 144 yards, TD; 4/43 rushing) was flawless. He hit college teammate Troy Franklin (2/54/1) for a 43-yard TD to take a 7-0 lead, and…that was it for the Broncos. Aside from a missed FG by K Wil Lutz (his first miss since November) at the end of the half and a turnover on downs late, Denver never came close to scoring. Even a beautiful fake punt pass from Riley Dixon to Marvin Mims couldn’t generate more points.
Defensively, Denver started out strong as well. The unit led the league in sacks for first time since 2015 (their last Super Bowl season) and earned two more here. As the offense faded though, the Broncos’ D simply couldn’t keep up the pace. Buffalo dominated from there on out, with everyone getting involved. QB Josh Allen (20/26, 272 yards, 2 TDs; 8/46 rushing) looked like an MVP, dialing up deep bombs, extending possessions with his legs, and making no mistakes. Perennially underrated RB James Cook (23/120/1) constantly found room to run, and WRs Curtis Samuel (3/68/1) and Khalil Shakir (6/61) had nice days too.
One stat can tell you the story of this game: time of possession. The Bills won that metric 41:43 to 18:17 in our most one-sided game of the weekend. Denver should be thrilled with their progress. A rookie QB and a fairly young group all around made it to the playoffs, and by Nix’s own admission, they’re on the right path. They aren’t yet at Buffalo’s level, i.e., Super Bowl threat. Nix playing a chunk of the season with back fractures certainly didn’t help. Even at full strength though, they weren’t going to be competitive against most playoff times. While ahead of schedule, Denver has work to do before they can reach the top tier.
Buffalo fans can rejoice. The Bills posted the most complete effort of the Wild Card Round and can easily hoist a Lombardi trophy if they continue on this path. Aside from Detroit and Kansas City (who didn’t play), Buffalo is the scariest team remaining in the draw. Baltimore will be a tough test, but I don’t think Buffalo is going to get stomped this time. The opposite could be true. They’ve morphed into a juggernaut led by Allen, but everything around him has progressed as well. His new pass catchers are contributing, and the defense has become dangerous, particularly up front. Also: I wouldn’t want to play in Buffalo in January.
NFC
(2) Philadelphia Eagles 22, (7) Green Bay Packers 10
With QB Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion, this felt like a chance for Green Bay to pull a 7-seeded upset for the second straight year. They could only do so if Hurts was rusty, but first, they needed to hold onto the ball. KR Keisean Nixon fumbled the opening kick, extending Philadelphia’s league lead to 23 forced this year. Making matters worse, Hurts was NOT rusty at the start, beginning 6/6 and converting the takeaway into a TD with a strike to WR Jahan Dotson. After that though, Hurts definitely seemed out of sorts. He fired 7 straight incompletions and only posted 1 FG the rest of the half.
A 10-0 halftime lead is fine, but it felt weak given that the Packers had 3 turnovers during the first two quarters. Packers QB Jordan Love (20/33, 212 yards, 3 INTs) had one of his worst career games, though I can’t say that he played with a full deck. Already without WR Christian Watson, two more receivers went down. Romeo Doubs, who missed 2 games earlier this year with a concussion and switched to a guardian cap, was walked off with a head injury after staying on the ground for several minutes. The team’s best WR, Jayden Reed (4/46) left with a shoulder injury and did not return.
Things were even worse on the offensive line. LG Elgton Jenkins left injured, and backup Travis Glover (who played 13 snaps all year) committed 3 painful penalties. C Josh Myers left the game late on a cart. Adding to the bad special teams play, K Brandon McManus had his first career postseason FG miss. The only bright spots for the Packers were RB Josh Jacobs (10/81/1; 3/40 receiving), who ran hard all game, and the defense, which played admirably given the spots they were put into by the offense. DC Jeff Hafley has done a terrific job, and his guys shouldn’t shoulder almost any of the blame for this loss.
Even that unit had issues though, with two unnecessary roughness penalties in the 2nd half earned by slamming RB Saquon Barkley. Those infractions gave life to a stagnant Eagles offense. Switching to Philly, only Barkley (25/119), who earned his first playoff win, and TE Dallas Goedert (4/47/1), who had a highlight-reel TD where he ran over CB Carrington Valentine and stiff-armed him twice, had banner days. Hurts (13/21, 131 yards, 2 TDs; 6/36 rushing) wasn’t consistent, but the team hopes that he was just getting his bearings after returning from the concussion. It was the Eagle’s defense that controlled this game.
DC Vic Fangio is pressing all the right buttons this year. LB Zack Baun (8 tackles), now an All-Pro, CB Darius Slay, and rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell all had INTs. OLB Nolan Smith had 2 sacks on plays where he was shot out of a cannon. The only thing that went wrong for this defense was that LB Nakobe Dean was carted off with a torn patellar tendon. Aside from that, it was all smiles on D, with the unit holding GB to their fewest points this season. The Eagles should be better next week, and they’ll need to be when they face the LA Rams. Also, get WR AJ Brown (1/10) involved and out of the library please!
This was quite the sobering loss for Green Bay. They hung with Philly in week 1, but the NFL’s youngest team didn’t make the same strides as their opponents did this year. I remain unconvinced that Love is the franchise QB the Packers are paying for. Including this game, he tossed 14 INTs this year and generally struggled against good teams. That was the primary criticism of this squad, as they stacked wins against struggling clubs while coming up short versus the big boys. Youth is on their side, so they have time to take the next step. Whether they can is a different question entirely, and it’s one we can’t answer just yet.
(6) Washington Commanders 23, (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Following two comfortable wins, the Sunday night game provided us our most competitive matchup of the weekend. Both defenses played well, but they weren’t really the story here. This game came down to the QBs and WRs. Tampa’s main receiver, Mike Evans, faced an extremely familiar foe in CB Marshon Lattimore. The enemies squared off again in a matchup where Evans has mostly been shut down, averaging 4 catches for 47 yards per game against his rival. This time though, Lattimore, now fully healthy, couldn’t contain Evans (7/92/1), who looked like the best player on the field. He couldn’t win on his own though.
Neither team had much early success. Tampa scored just 1 FG over a quarter and a half, while Washington took a pounding. That was quite literal for bloodied QB Jayden Daniels. Aided by drive-extending penalties by Tampa (7 for 65 yards overall), the Commanders got into a rhythm. Nobody but Daniels could run the ball for Washington, but the youngster carried the offense like a seasoned veteran. His emphatic response came in the form of a 92-yard, 9:08 drive that took 17 plays, spread across two quarters, and ended in a TD pass to WR Dyami Brown (5/89/1). Brown played a key role in this offense.
If you thought Bucs QB Baker Mayfield would roll over and quit, you don’t know this competitor. Struggling to get anything going, Mayfield seemed to let his frustrations out on the Washington defense, running angrily for a bruising 18-yard run on the way to a game-tying Evans touchdown. That drive showed Evans’ dominance over Lattimore up close, as he drew PI and then grabbed a 1-yard TD against the corner on successive plays. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 17-13 lead in the 3rd quarter with a Bucky Irving (17/77; 2/6/1 receiving) TD catch, at which point everything went haywire. That was true for both teams actually.
Washington drove down to 1st and goal at the 1 but ended up committing a turnover on downs. Mayfield then fumbled on a routine handoff, changing the momentum. Daniels followed with a go-ahead TD to WR Terry McLaurin 4 plays later on 4th and goal (7/89/1). The Bucs tied the game with a field goal, but Daniels (24/35, 268 yards, 2 TDs) calmly led his team into FG range. K Zane Gonzalez banked the 37-yard attempted off the right upright as time expired, sending the Commanders to the divisional round. This was the lowest seed to win, and Washington got revenge over their regular-season loss to the Bucs.
This one has to sting for Mayfield (15/18, 185 yards, 2 TDs; 7/23 rushing). He threw the ball well, but his one error changed the tenor of the entire contest. HC Todd Bowles also didn’t manage his defense well, allowing Daniels to extend too many plays. While we can blame him though, Daniels deserves the credit. He has rarely looked like a rookie this year, and he has changed this team completely. Washington has notched their first postseason win since 2006, and he and HC Dan Quinn are the reasons why. They should enjoy this one, as next week’s game in Detroit will be a much stiffer test for the upstart Commanders.
(4) Los Angeles Rams 27, (5) Minnesota Vikings 9
First off, our hearts reach out to anyone impacted by the terrible LA fires. That’s a nightmare situation people living there, so even though the Rams got inconvenienced, the impact wasn’t close to the same. As far as the football goes though, the NFL moved this game to the Arizona Cardinals’ stadium for the sake of public safety. Not only that, but LA already had to deal with a 14-3 team coming to play them for some reason. I thought the league planned to ensure that Rams fans formed the majority, but an unofficial tally suggested that the split was 51-49 in favor of the Vikings. You’d forgive LA for putting up a clunker here.
Except they didn’t. The Rams were surgical from the jump, with their only early errors being two burnt timeouts due to crowd noise. They employed a pass-heavy start, and QB Matthew Stafford began the game 10/10. An early TD pass to RB Kyren Williams (16/76; 3/16/1 receiving) and an FG built a 10-0 lead. LA beat the Vikings back in week 8 and ended up being the only team this year to allow 0 sacks to Minnesota’s defense. In the rematch though, the Rams’ line wasn’t nearly as crisp (2 sacks allowed), and the offense bogged down after a bit. A chest injury to TE Tyler Higbee (5/58) definitely contributed to the sluggishness.
Minnesota had chances to get back into the game but didn’t take advantage. Most of the troubles were caused by the offensive line. That unit was the worst group we’ve seen in the playoffs thus far. QB Sam Darnold (25/40, 245 yards, TD, INT, FUM) had absolutely no chance while running for his life. He led one first-half FG drive with help from WR Justin Jefferson, but the next drive went awry. The Vikings were gifted a 4th-and-15 conversion via a roughing the punter penalty, but Darnold then threw a pick on on a late throw. He suffered a playoff record-tying 9 sacks, including 6 in the first half alone.
After the INT, Minnesota nearly lost the ball again on a fumble by TE Josh Oliver. Replay determined that his knee was down, but that didn’t save the Vikings. Darnold took a sack on a play that should’ve been halted for delay of game, and DE Jared Verse took it for a TD. He then took a sack on 4th-and-2 at midfield, and Stafford (19/27, 209 yards, 2 TDs) extended the lead to 24-3. We barely saw any second-half scoring, as the Rams went into cruise control. LA’s defense was elite. Eight different players had at least half a sack, and the team totaled 10 TFLs. DC Chris Shula called a masterful game, and it started with LA’s young core.
Verse, DTs Kobie Turner (2 sacks) and Braden Fiske (.5 sacks), and OLB Byron Young (1.5 sacks) were all great picks by GM Les Snead. Despite recent cap troubles, the Rams have retooled on the fly. I confess that Philly’s defensive line is a rough matchup next week, but LA took the energy of a reeling city and dominated a strong opponent. They could carry that momentum forward. Minnesota now needs to ask themselves: is Darnold the guy? That’s two putrid games to end the year, and rookie JJ McCarthy should be back next season. I still like Darnold more than McCarthy. Regardless of the QB, more linemen are desperately needed.