Week 18 Takeaways for the 2025 NFL Season
During the final week of the regular season, some teams played for playoff spots or division titles. Some played for seeding. Others played for draft positioning. We saw less starters than usual this year with many teams only playing for minor potential seed changes (shockingly, the Rams did play starters). Individual players, even those on eliminated teams, worked to secure valuable contract incentives and/or team/league records. Regardless of what you watched for, we got 16 games in about a 27-hour span. For the last full slate of games this season, here are my week 18 takeaways. Don’t worry; we’ll be back for the playoffs!
Panthers Lose to Bucs, Clinch NFC South Anyway Thanks to Falcons
Saturday’s double-header began with a “battle for the NFC South”. In the pouring rain, both offenses had to recalibrate their plans. Tampa Bay scored 10 early points, but QB Baker Mayfield (16/22, 203 yards, TD, INT; 4/31 rushing) missed a wide-open Payne Durham in the end zone on their second drive, likely due to the wet ball. Carolina couldn’t do anything until Mayfield made another error, firing an INT right to LB Christian Rozeboom. The Panthers capitalized and scored a TD, their only points of the first half. Tampa scored one more FG in the first half thanks to a Bryce Young INT, but it was a disturbingly conservative drive.
Nothing went right for either offense in the third quarter. The Bucs barely had the ball that quarter, while everything seemed to go against Carolina. K Ryan Fitzgerald missed a 54-yard FG, and the refs made some brutal calls. They called a terrible OPI on WR Tetairoa McMillan (4/85), threw a flag for an equally bad DPI on S Nick Cross (whose feet just got tangled with the receiver), and failed to penalize a Tampa player for ripping the helmet off of TE Tommy Tremble by the facemask. In one drop of good news, RB Rico Dowdle (7/10; 2/20 receiving) got the 7 yards he needed for a $1M incentive. It took him until after halftime to do it.
The struggles continued for the Panthers to begin the fourth quarter. They moved the ball downfield, but Dowdle slipped on a flea flicker and the pitched ball poorly for a fumble just outside the red zone. Meanwhile, TB, powered by RB Bucky Irving (26/85) and TE Cade Otton (7/94/1), the only weapons to really do anything for them in this game, stretched their lead to two scores with an FG. Another FG got blocked by DT Cam Jackson after a wrongly successful challenge by the Panthers got a catch reversed, preventing the Bucs from going on 4th down. Still, not enough time remained for Carolina to make a serious comeback.
They did manage to score another TD though. McMillan saved the drive with a 40-yard catch on 4th-and-8, putting him over 1000 yards for the season. In the potential OROY debate between he and Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka (1/8), I think McMillan is the clear winner. That play was the fault of TB HC Todd Bowles, who was too predictable with his blitz call. I also can’t comprehend leaving 2 rookie corners on an island (Jamel Dean was out with an injury). Young (24/35, 266 yards, 2 TDs, INT) actually played pretty well in the elements. However, his running game provided 19 total yards. Even a valiant defensive effort couldn’t overcome that.
Fittingly, Otton made the catch that sealed Tampa’s win, ensuring us an 8-9 NFC South champion. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, I used quotes in the opening sentence of this section because there was a chance that this game wouldn’t matter at all. That’s because an Atlanta win over the Saints would bring all three teams to 8-9 in the event of a Carolina loss. The Falcons won 19-10 (but cleaned house), and so Carolina wins the division on overall head-to-head. I don’t see them beating the Rams again, but it’s a wonderful achievement for HC Dave Canales, who happened to be Tampa’s OC before he got his current job.
Seahawks Stifle Niners to Win NFC West, #1 Seed in NFC
A year ago, Seahawks QB Sam Darnold faced a winner-take-all game just like this one. As a member of the Vikings, he and his team came up woefully short, losing the #1 seed and earning a mere wild card. One season later, against the team that revived his career, Darnold refused to let that happen again. Seattle started off with a wimpy run call on 3rd-and-goal before missing on 4th, but they got the ball back quickly on a short field and scored a TD. The run game was instrumental, with both Zach Charbonnet (17/74/1; 3/23 receiving) and Kenneth Walker (16/97; 4/36 receiving) providing consistent gains.
Seattle’s defense, a top-5 unit by my estimation, faced the task of slowing a red-hot 49ers offense. San Francisco was limited without LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall, but I don’t believe those two would’ve changed much based on how this game played out. The 49ers had a miserable time moving the ball, with RB Christian McCaffrey (8/23; 6/34 receiving) averaging 2.9 YPC and the team as a whole converting just 2 of 9 third downs. In a battle of Kubiaks, Seattle OC Klint Kubiak definitely had the advantage over 49ers OC (and brother) Klay Kubiak, as the former got to scheme against a decimated defensive unit.
This game could’ve been a blowout, but Seahawks K Jason Myers missed 2 FGs, including a doinker from 26. Seattle also left points on the board due to their first drive. However, the defense gave up just 3 points on the day. A critical moment came in the 4th quarter with Seattle up 10-3 and facing 3rd-and-17. Walker ran for 19 yards, extending the drive and leading to an FG. With a two-score lead, the game felt over, and 13-3 was indeed the final score. San Francisco’s dynamic offense returned for 1 drive, but a CMC drop in the red zone led to an INT of QB Brock Purdy (19/27, 127 yards, INT; 2/21 rushing), who faced relentless pressure.
By leaning on the run game and the defense, Darnold (20/26, 198 yards) didn’t feel pressured to do too much. He made some key throws, especially on the drive to put away the game (a 16-play, 89-yard, 8:01 march that ended in a missed FG). I expect him to have more confidence in big games moving forward. Seattle’s reward is a much-needed bye, as well as home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They’re now the team to beat. SF did amazingly to earn 13 wins with all their injuries, but without so many important players, I worry that they’ll struggle to win 3 road games and fulfil their dreams of a home Super Bowl.
Broncos #1 in AFC, Jaguars Win AFC South, and Other Seeding Notes
Though we didn’t have a ton of high stakes (aside from the few games that I’ve singled out in other takeaways), plenty of games had impacts on seeding. We’ll go through those here. Most importantly, Denver’s defeat over the backup Chargers got them the #1 seed in the AFC. No, LA didn’t put up a fight with Trey Lance at QB (though their defense did pretty well). The Broncos don’t care; they’ll take the home-field advantage and first-round bye. New England and Jacksonville both won in dominating fashion, earning the 2 and 3 seeds, respectively. We even got a 67-yard FG from Jaguars K Cam Little for our enjoyment.
Houston won a back-and-forth affair against the Colts, though I’m not sure how hard they were trying. The Texans kept WR Nico Collins out and yanked all the other starters at halftime. Nonetheless, they won the game thanks to K Ka’imi Fairbairn making 6 FGs, and they’ll face the AFC North winner (that’s a teaser for the last takeaway) as the 5 seed. They’ll go into that game red hot, winners of 9 straight. Buffalo crushed the hapless Jets with mostly backups, and they’ll go to Jacksonville as the 6 seed. NYJ became the first defense ever without an INT in a season. LAC, dropping to the 7 seed, heads to New England.
Over in the NFC, the Rams pulled away from the Cardinals with a strong offensive performance. That earned them a 5-seed and a rematch at Carolina. As a consequence, San Francisco drops to the 6 seed. The 2 and 3 seeds came down to Chicago and Philly. Detroit beat the Bears’ starters despite almost allowing a comeback. That made the NFC North the 2nd division ever to have all 4 teams over .500! Fortunately for Chicago, Philadelphia didn’t seem to care about seeding because they started QB Tanner McKee and other backups. After seeing the Bears’ loss, I wonder if they regret that. Their loss to Washington was avoidable if they tried.
Green Bay was already locked into the 7 seed, so they played nobody of note and barely avoided a shutout against Minnesota (an FG as time expired was their only score). Congrats to Minnesota for a 9-8 record, but QB JJ McCarthy got hurt AGAIN. Putting those results together, we have (7) Green Bay going to (2) Chicago and (6) San Francisco going to Philly. Divisional rematches are always tricky, and SF doesn’t have the best memories in Philadelphia. Looking at everything, the NFC’s field seems much stronger than that in the AFC. I just wonder if they’ll beat each other up too much on the way to the Super Bowl.
Giants’ Win Gives Raiders #1 Pick Despite Las Vegas Winning Too
Congratulations Raiders: your tank job is complete. The shenanigans this team pulled last week to lose to their top competition for the #1 selection, the New York Giants, put them in pole position to pick first in the upcoming draft. Playing in the 4:25 Sunday window, all Las Vegas needed to do was lose their final game or have NYG beat Dallas to complete their mission. Dallas only partially tried in their game, benching any injured players and removing all of their starters at halftime. New York ended up winning by 3 scores, and I commend them for trying their hardest despite dropping to the #5 pick as a result.
I wonder if the remaining coaching staff, feeling betrayed by GM Joe Schoen seemingly throwing them under the bus to stay while Brian Daboll got fired, intentionally ruined the team’s pick. They won’t be around much longer anyway, so why not win? I wish the Raiders had that mentality, but they have a first-year coach and a first-year GM. The latter is safe, but HC Pete Carroll could be gone within hours. That would be dirty to me, as the front office dealt him a bad hand. I see few rosters with less talent. To be more specific, I see few rosters with less AVAILABLE talent since the Raiders decided to place anyone good on IR.
This is different from playoff teams giving players pseudo-byes in week 18. There’s only one week left when these losing teams make that choice. They aren’t saving guys for playoff games. And what was all of this for? If you believe the rumors, the apple of their eye is Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza. He was great in the CFP quarterfinals, and the Raiders are probably thrilled that they can take whoever they want. I offer this caution: even QBs taken #1 overall aren’t surefire hits. If you want an example that, let’s look back at the only other time the Raiders had the #1 pick in franchise history. Their selection? A QB named Jamarcus Russell.
Steelers Claim AFC North After Ravens Miss Winning FG
After week 17, we all knew who’d get the SNF time slot: Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two longtime rivals in a win-or-go-home scenario. Neither team has been consistently good this year, but they’ve shown flashes. In this matchup, the offenses were up and down. Baltimore scored a 4th-down TD on their opening drive, while the Steelers punted and then got stuffed on a Heyward brothers tush push (a real brotherly shove?) on 4th down on their second drive. For a while, Pittsburgh REALLY missed suspended WR DK Metcalf, as the offense struggled. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry (20/126) had over 100 first-half yards for Baltimore.
As a result, the Ravens held a 10-3 halftime edge. It could’ve been 10-6, but Pittsburgh went on 1st-and-goal at the 1 after a PI penalty with just 2 seconds remaining. They got stuffed for a loss. The Steelers did rebound with a goal-line TD to start the 3rd quarter, with RBs Jaylen Warren (14/66) and Kenneth Gainwell (8 rec, 64 yards) doing good work. On the Baltimore side, once again, they went away from Henry after halftime for no good reason. Following Pittsburgh’s TD, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was picked off by TJ Watt (back from a painful lung injury) off a deflection, leading to a go-ahead FG for the Steelers.
Jackson rebounded nicely though with some help from the Pittsburgh defense. In the 4th quarter, the Steelers couldn’t cover WR Zay Flowers (4/138/2). They busted two coverages against him on consecutive drives, and Jackson (11/18, 238 yards, 3 TDs, INT) took advantage of both for deep-shot TDs. Pittsburgh responded to both scores with TDs, as QB Aaron Rodgers (31/47, 294 yards, TD) slung the ball around like his old self. Maybe he thought this could be his last game, and he didn’t want to roll over. Importantly, after the second score, K Chris Boswell missed his first PAT of the year, so Pittsburgh only had a 26-24 lead.
With 55 seconds left but all 3 timeouts available, Baltimore got to work. TE Isaiah Likely (2/32) caught a 4th-and-7 prayer to bring the Ravens into FG range. They controlled the clock and set up a 44-yard game-winning FG attempt with 0:02 on the clock. Rookie K Tyler Loop pushed the kick wide right, leading to heartbreak for Baltimore and a division title for Pittsburgh. This was pretty much a perfect way for the Ravens’ season to end. For so long, they had the league’s best kicker and did the little things right. That wasn’t true at all this year. The Steelers can thank their lucky stars, and they’ll get at least one extra game as a result.