Week 18 Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
During the final week of the regular season, some teams played for playoff spots or division titles. Some played for seeding. Others played for draft positioning. Finally, teams like the Chiefs, Bills and Texans, whose seeds were already secure, played almost no starters (at least not for very long) for their protection. Individual players, even those on eliminated teams, worked to secure valuable contract incentives and/or team/league records. For the last full slate of games this season, here are my (overstuffed) week 18 takeaways. Don’t worry; we’ll be back for the playoffs!
Saturday: Ravens Lock Up AFC North, Bengals Win but Don’t Get Help
This week’s Saturday double-header gave us two games with major playoff implications. In the first, Baltimore won their second straight AFC North title by whipping the Browns, though that was rather expected. That doesn’t mean the game wasn’t interesting. For starters, Cleveland planned to play both Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB, but DTR (2/3, 13 yards) got just one series. Zappe (16/31, 170 yards, TD, 2 INTs) started and played the bulk of the game, and he wasn’t great. His second series ended with a pick six to CB Nate Wiggins, which put the Browns in a 7-0 hole they’d never dig out of.
Cleveland went 24 drives without scoring a single TD, but Zappe finally delivered one in the 4th quarter. Beyond that, I’m not even sure the Browns wanted to win, as they clinched the 2nd pick in the draft by losing. Baltimore, on the other hand, won easily but had some concerns. WRs Rashad Bateman and Zay Flowers left with injuries; Bateman (5/76/1) returned and scored a TD, while Flowers suffered a knee sprain. On his 31st birthday, RB Derrick Henry (20/138/2; 2/23 receiving) had a stellar second half, but the Browns bottled him up for 8 yards on 6 carries over the first two quarters. In fact, the entire offense had trouble at times.
Baltimore did not play nearly as well as they wanted to before they enter the playoffs. QB Lamar Jackson (16/32, 217 yards, 2 TDs; 9/63 rushing) tried to make an MVP statement in the second half, but he only completed 50% of his passes and didn’t get going until late. They lost to Cleveland earlier this year, so I’m going to chalk this up to a poor matchup and the fact that the Ravens were looking past a lousy team. The result is that Baltimore got the 3 seed and will host Pittsburgh next week. In years past, this is the part where the Ravens fizzled out. Now that Baltimore is armed with Henry, don’t expect history to repeat itself.
In the second game of the night, Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow was surgical to start. He completed his first 12 passes, and the 13th was dropped. Without injured RB Chase Brown, Khalil Herbert (20/69; 7/14 receiving) started and did fine, but the passing game carried the load. Pittsburgh’s strong defensive line got to tee off, and Burrow felt constant pressure. That led to a red zone INT and some drives stalling out (Burrow took 4 more sacks in this game). WR Ja’Marr Chase (10/96/1) also dropped a TD, but he did enough good otherwise to compensate. The offense struggled further after WR Tee Higgins (4/53) aggravated his ankle injury.
Meanwhile, the Steelers had a ton of trouble moving the ball. After Burrow’s INT, Pittsburgh had three consecutive first downs overturned by reviews, turning the ball over on downs. The Steelers relied heavily on the running game early, with QB Russell Wilson throwing just 8 times in the first half, completing 4 passes for 45 yards. WR George Pickens was a complete no-show, with 1 catch for 0 yards on 6 targets. Cincy’s maligned defense played as well as it has all season, but the secondary was still a major problem. On one Pittsburgh TD drive, CB Cam Taylor-Britt committed TWO PI penalties.
Burrow (37/46, 277 yards, TD, INT) looked good again to start the 3rd quarter, but he stayed down after two Steelers landed on him. Of course HE doesn’t get the body weight rule! Fortunately, Burrow came right back on the next drive. His bigger issue was DT Cam Heyward, who batted 3 passes for a league-leading 8 on the season, and the rest of Pittsburgh’s rush. A muffed punt off a player’s foot and another TD surrendered to the Steelers made the game close, but one Bengal saved the day. DE Trey Hendrickson had 3.5 sacks, including one that keyed the final defensive stand. He now has 17.5 on the season, leading the NFL.
Even Pittsburgh’s best offensive player on the night, TE Pat Freiermuth (5/88/1), dropped a 4th-and-12 pass that could’ve extended the game, finishing the 19-17 loss. This offense has been bad throughout the now 4-game losing streak. The Chargers’ win means that Pittsburgh will go to Baltimore, where they played terribly a few weeks ago. Should Steelers coach Mike Tomlin have gone to Justin Fields given Wilson’s rough day (17/31, 148 yards, TD) and the Bengals’ weakness against running QBs? I leave that question to you. Truth be told though, neither of these teams look like true contenders.
Denver’s win means that the Bengals will be at home, which must be a sigh of relief to the rest of the AFC. This team got hot late, finishing on a 5-game winning streak. Chase finished with the receiving triple crown, and Burrow has been the MVP even though he’ll never win it. His 3-TD streak is over, but a win was more important to him. Even K Cade York, nearly the goat of last week’s game, went 4/4 on field goals. Still, the same problems remain: the offensive line can’t keep Burrow upright, and the defensive backs nearly blew the game. Until these issues are fixed, nobody in Cincinnati can be thinking about the Super Bowl.
Titans on the Clock as Patriots’ Victory Costs Them #1 Pick (and HC)
Going into Sunday, Cleveland had already lost and could pick no worse than third. A New England loss would’ve given them the top selection, with Tennessee next in line. It seemed like a chance emerged for the Patriots to blow their draft positioning when Buffalo stated that they would be resting their starters, while HC Jerod Mayo planned to win by starting QB Drake Maye. In reality, Maye played one quick series, while 6th-round rookie Joe Milton handled the rest of the contest. Incredibly, Milton led the Pats to a victory. He started out 10/10, and his final stats (22/29, 241 yards, TD; 10/15/1 rushing) were more than solid.
The cannon-armed QB honed in his accuracy and moved well in the pocket, albeit against backups. It was an excellent debut, though this is and will be Maye’s team moving forward. New England will not, however, be Mayo’s team. Shortly after the win, the Krafts released a statement that they had fired Mayo after one 4-13 season. I graded that here, so I won’t address it further in this article. Beating Mitchell Trubisky (15/21, 101 yards, TD) and Mike White (3/11, 28 yards), Buffalo’s maligned backup QBs, wasn’t enough to save his job. More pertinent to this discussion though is that the Patriots opened the door for Tennessee.
To their…credit?…the Titans showed no interest in beating the Texans. Despite Houston playing their starters for just one drive (a TD drive), Tennessee never threatened them at home. The defense let Texans RB Dameon Pierce (19/176/1) sprint for a 92-yard TD run, while the offense alternated between QBs Will Levis (9/17, 175 yards, TD, FUM) and Mason Rudolph (7/9, 70 yards). That combo showed that they shouldn’t be in play to be next year’s opening-day starter. In fact, their play was a primary reason that Tennessee lost 23-14, securing the #1 draft pick. As a reward, that pack is likely to be spent on their replacement.
Buccaneers Repeat as NFC South Champions While Falcons Implode
Both the Buccaneers and Falcons made winning the NFC South harder on themselves with ill-timed losing streaks, but Tampa’s rebound had them in position to win the division with a win or an Atlanta loss. As it happened, both outcomes went their way. These two teams certainly made things interesting though. The Falcons had an awful offensive start, with rookie QB Michael Penix Jr tossing numerous inaccurate passes. With help from RB Bijan Robinson (28/170/2) and WR Drake London (10/187/2), who posted monster games, Penix (21/38, 312 yards, 2 TDs, INT) bounced back and put up 38 points.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, their defense couldn’t stop Carolina at all. QB Bryce Young (25/34, 251 yards, 3 TDs; 5/24/2 rushing) authored the game of his young career. Looking like the Alabama version of himself, Young spread the ball around to 9 different pass catchers and traded blows with Atlanta. Eventually reaching OT, the Panthers got the ball first, and Young led his team right down the field for a TD. The Falcons’ loss didn’t end up meaning much for their playoff hopes, but it’s another reminder of how far they have to go. For Carolina, Young’s first career road win shows just how much he has grown this year.
Tampa Bay hosted the Saints, a team without QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Kamara, and WR Chris Olave. To New Orleans’ credit, they took a 16-6 halftime lead and really stymied the Tampa offense. From that point on, the TB defense held the Saints to just 3 more points, and 4 offensive stars took over. QB Baker Mayfield (20/32, 221 yards, 2 TDs, INT; 9/68 rushing) used his typical grit to will the Bucs back into the game. He had been 0-43 when down by 10+ points in a game, but he wasn’t about to go 0-44. Rookie WR Jalen McMillan (5/74/1) scored a go-ahead TD, and RB Bucky Irving (19/89/1) added an insurance score to finish a 27-19 victory.
Of course, WR Mike Evans (9/89) was involved, and I love with coach Todd Bowles did with him. Sitting at 995 yards on the season when the Bucs were ready to kneel out the win, Evans needed help from his team. Instead of kneeling, Tampa dialed up a quick catch for Evans that went for 9 yards. He extended his 1000-yard season streak to 11 and earned a $3M incentive. That really made me respect the Buccaneers, and I think karma rewarded them for their choice. The Rams lost later in the day, making TB the 3 seed instead of the 4 seed. They now get to avoid the Vikings and host Washington, who they beat earlier this season.
NFC’s 6 and 7 Seeds Filled with Drama; AFC’s 7 Seed Has No Suspense
Normally, the 6 and 7 seeds don’t feel very different to teams. In this case though, it’s the different between going to Tampa Bay or traveling to Philadelphia. Green Bay, wanting to avoid the latter outcome, played their starters. In hindsight, they probably wish they didn’t. The Packers couldn’t separate from the 4-12 Bears, and they suffered a pair of injuries. WR Christian Watson was carted off with a noncontact knee injury, while QB Jordan Love (7/12, 69 yards) hurt his elbow. Love thankfully appeared to be alright, and backup Malik Willis (10/13, 136 yards) played fine, even leading a go-ahead field goal drive.
However, Green Bay’s work was for naught, as the defense allowed the struggling Bears to march down for a game-winning 51-yard FG in just 54 seconds, ending their 10-game losing streak and their 11-loss streak to the Packers. Even a win wouldn’t have mattered though, as the Commanders nabbed the 6 seed with their own victory. They too played starters but only for one half in the case of QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels (6/12, 38 yards; 4/27 rushing) had a poor game against Dallas and took 4 sacks, so Washington probably took him out for his own protection. As a result, we saw a duel between Marcus Mariota and Trey Lance.
Mariota was by far the best QB in this game. Facing a 9-3 hole dug by Daniels, Mariota proceeded to shred the Cowboys. He dazzled as both a passer (15/18, 161 yards, 2 TDs) and a rusher (5/56/1), completing the comeback with a 91-yard TD drive. With 6 seconds left, he lofted the game-winning score to WR Terry McLaurin (8/62/1), setting up a trip to Tampa. As an aside, Lance (20/34, 244 yards) still hasn’t proven to be capable of starting. His physical gifts remain tantalizing, but his accuracy scares me off. Dallas started Lance to see him in game action, but I believe Cooper Rush would have earned a victory here.
Over in the AFC, we had no drama at all. Cincinnati won but had to wait a day, hoping for Miami and Denver losses. The Dolphins complied, giving Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (23/36, 274 yards, 4 TDs, INT) a vintage day in his swan song. The Tyler Huntley-lead Dolphins stood no chance (especially with WR Tyreek Hill essentially quitting). Unfortunately for both teams, Denver played a Chiefs team resting everyone. You might cynically say that the Chiefs ceded this game to keep Joe Burrow out of the playoffs. Based on the way their backups performed, that sort of conspiracy theory might be warranted, because the effort was ugly.
KC’s defense allowed rookie QB Bo Nix to start 18/18, and he finished 26/29 for 321 yards and 4 TDs in a 38-0 demolition. Perhaps the Chiefs were right to rest players; if any of these backups have to play meaningful games, KC is in trouble. I’m honestly surprised the NFL allows this type of tanking. The Broncos benefitted greatly, locking up the 7-seed and with it a trip to Buffalo. This comically bad game aside, I can’t say enough about the job Denver HC Sean Payton has done. He turned the team around in just 2 years and is doing a fantastic job of developing Nix. I doubt they’ll beat the Bills, but this is still a banner achievement.
Lions Win High-Stakes Showdown vs. Vikings, Clinch #1 Seed
The battle between the 14-2 Vikings and 14-2 Lions in Detroit was set up to be the game of the season, and it naturally got SNF billing. Everything was on the line: the winner would earn the NFC North title and the #1 seed, as well as the home-field advantage and 1st-round bye that come with it. The loser would go on the road as the 5-seed to play the Rams. Given the capabilities of these offenses and Detroit’s defensive injuries, we all expected a shootout. Somehow, we ended up with a slugfest. Detroit’s offense had a decent start, converting a 4th down against a zero blitz en route to a Jahmyr Gibbs TD.
Minnesota had a much worse start, with QB Sam Darnold taking a 17-yard sack and overthrowing TE TJ Hockenson after the Lions scored. The Vikings’ defense was game though, limiting the Lions to just 3 points over the remainder of the half. Darnold (18/41, 166 yards) picked a bad time to have his worst game as a Viking though. It wasn’t even really his fault; the Lions somehow were able to pressure him relentlessly, leading to rushed decisions and mad scrambles. I didn’t think the return of LB Alex Anzalone (7 tackles, PBU) would be that impactful, but evidently it was. Minnesota’s bad choices didn’t help.
The Vikings failed an early 4th and goal when they should have kicked, and they finished 0/4 in the red zone. After that turnover on downs, S Josh Metellus tipped a Jared Goff screen pass, and LB Ivan Pace picked it off. Darnold proceeded to throw 3 balls over the heads of his receivers, leading to a field goal. Detroit still couldn’t get in gear at that point. They challenged the spot on 4th and 1, and they should’ve won it. However, the officials moved the ball closer without giving them their deserved first down, and for some reason, Detroit opted to throw an intermediate pass, which fell incomplete. Aggression hurt HC Dan Campbell early.
Goff (27/33, 231 yards, TD, 2 INTs), however, did not stay down. An out-of-bounds kickoff by Will Reichard (who also missed an FG) set the Lions up at the 40 with 20 seconds left, and they easily worked into FG range to go up 10-6. Minnesota got a big run from RB Cam Akers (6/65) to open the 3rd quarter, but the Vikings came away empty after another 4th-down failure. Goff threw his second INT on a deep shot one play later, but the Lions held again defensively. Give DC Aaron Glenn much credit: he took a ragtag group and called a masterful game. After that series, everything worked for Detroit, and they ran away with a 31-9 victory.
Gibbs (23/139/3; 5/31/1 receiving) scored 4 TDs, and the offense sizzled. The defense completely neutralized WR Jordan Addison (0 yards), and CB Amik Robertson did a fantastic job against Justin Jefferson (3/54). Not everything was perfect; CB Terrion Arnold got carted off with a potentially serious injury, just when he was playing his best ball. Still, they won and earned a badly-needed bye. Hopefully they can get healthy. Minnesota has to go to LA, who beat them in week 7. The Rams have a good pass rush, which is the Vikings’ weakness. Darnold simply cannot operate under such duress, so the protection must improve quickly.