Week 16 Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! This time of year, teams are hoping for holiday miracles as they make unlikely playoff pushes. Four different NFC teams (San Francisco, Arizona, Dallas, and New Orleans) didn’t get the gifts they needed from other games. Three 6-8 AFC teams (Cincinnati, Miami, and Indianapolis) took matters into their own hands and staved off elimination for at least another week. Two squads (Baltimore and Green Bay) locked up playoff spots as presents to themselves. And one team (Saints) was on the wrong end of the season’s first shutout. Read on for my (hopefully festive?) week 16 takeaways!
TNF: Broncos Collapse as Penalties Assist Chargers at Home
We couldn’t have had two more different halves of football in this divisional matchup. Playing without RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver pounded LAC on the ground…for one drive. Rookie Audric Estime (9/48/1) did most of the work, and it opened things up for QB Bo Nix (29/40, 263 yards, 2 TDs; 3/25 rushing) and the passing game. The Chargers’ defense looked completely sorry, just as they did last week against Tampa Bay. How bad was it? QB Justin Herbert (23/31, 284 yards, 2 TDs, INT; 8/28 rushing) started off 8/8. By the time he had his first incompletion (with 0 turnovers at that point), his team was down eleven.
Denver’s defense also showed out in the first half. Yes, they allowed 13 points, but they got a big run stuff on 3rd and 1 to force a field goal, and they intercepted Herbert inside the red zone. That’s when penalties started to change the narrative. With 8 seconds until the half, Denver punted, but CB Tremon Smith committed kick catch interference. No time remained, but LA got a chance to attempt a rare play: a fair catch kick. K Cameron Dicker converted from 57 yards out, marking the first successful instance of this play since 1976. Coincidentally, the last team to do it was…the Chargers. Still, LAC trailed 21-13 at the half.
The Broncos scored an FG to start the 3rd quarter, but then everything changed. LA got some help from the refs. On 3rd and 13 at the Denver 18, Herbert ran for 7 yards and slid late. LB Justin Strnad was already in flight, and he did his best to dodge Herbert but made some contact. He was flagged 15 yards anyway, and RB Gus Edwards (14/68/2) scored on the next play. Denver’s offense bogged down, scoring just 3 more points in the second half. The defense imploded just as much, allowing two more TD drives, one of which was aided by a horse collar tackle. Suddenly, the Broncos trailed by 10 with under 3 minutes remaining.
A field goal made the score 34-27 with 57 seconds left, but Denver couldn’t recover the following onside kick. The story of this game was the penalties. Denver had 7 accepted penalties for 61 yards, while the Chargers had 2 penalties for 8 yards. I’m not sure the teams were that far apart in terms of discipline. Regardless, LA won, and both teams are now 9-6. Each is now one win away from clinching a playoff spot, so they’re in great shape. LAC now owns the tiebreaker over Denver though, which may be key. As things stand, the 5 seed would play at Houston, while the 7 seed would play at Buffalo. I know which matchup I prefer.
Saturday Double Header: Chiefs Keep Rolling, Steelers Stumble
We’re near the end of December, which can only mean one thing: Saturday NFL football! We had 2 games featuring 4 playoff teams. First, the Texans went to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. As we’ve seen for much of this season, Houston QB CJ Stroud (23/39, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) was just a bit off with his ball placement. His first drive ended in an INT, and a couple of other passes were located in ways that prevented his WRs from gaining YAC. Protection has been the issue, but Stroud was kept fairly clean this time around (2 sacks). Going away from RB Joe Mixon (14/57) and the run game also didn’t help.
Kansas City’s concern was the injured ankle of QB Patrick Mahomes (28/41, 260 yards, TD; 5/33/1 rushing). He quelled those concerns right away, barreling through defenders for a 15-yard TD run. The offense got a boost from the season debut of WR Hollywood Brown (4/45), whose first catch as a Chief was a 4th-and-2 conversion. His presence enabled the emergence of WR Xavier Worthy (7/65/1), and the Chiefs trailed for just over 5 minutes of this 27-19 win. However, Houston kept things close, remaining within one score at all times. One play changed the fate of this game…and perhaps the Texans’ season.
In the 3rd quarter, Stroud tossed a deep-strike TD to WR Tank Dell (6/98/1), but a teammate rolled up on him. He amazingly hung onto the ball, but he stayed down. Dell went to the hospital by ambulance with a dislocated kneecap, along with more damage. Stroud cried on the field, and the other Texans were also emotional seeing a guy who broke his leg late last season and was starting to look like himself again. K Kaimi Fairbairn missed the tying PAT after the layoff, and even after a 4th-and-1 stuff by the defense at midfield, the offense couldn’t respond. KC got their 16th-straight 1-score win, and Houston is running out of receivers.
Our other matchup was a pivotal AFC North battle, with the Ravens hosting the Steelers. It was clear early on that a hobbled TJ Watt would not be enough for Pittsburgh to succeed. CB Joey Porter Jr also exited with a calf injury, putting the defense in a rough spot. The offense still didn’t have WR George Pickens (hamstring), so a 34-17 loss shouldn’t be too surprising for such an undermanned team. How they lost will be much more concerning for HC Mike Tomlin. First, as most teams do, the Steelers let RB Derrick Henry (24/162; 2/27 receiving) run wild. He’s a beast that few can stop, but the Steelers pride themselves on defense.
QB Russell Wilson (22/33, 217 yards, 2 TDs; 3/27 rushing) had a nice day throwing the football, but he made two crucial errors. First, tied 7-7, he made a great 19-yard run, but he fumbled at the BAL 4. Later, after Wilson missed a deep ball on 4th down, Henry had a big run, but Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (15/23, 207 yards, 3 TDs, INT) threw a rare INT to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Alas, Wilson returned the favor with a pick six to Marlon Humphrey. That short-circuited any chance the Steelers had at a comeback, especially since the defense had few answers on the day for Jackson, Henry, and WR Zay Flowers (5/100).
Baltimore’s win officially clinched their (already incredibly likely) playoff spot, and they kept the Steelers from locking up the AFC North. Instead, the two teams are tied at the top, and they have identical divisional records. The Ravens have the easier remaining schedule, so they should be favored to claim the division crown. That scheduling aspect is a bit of good fortune, and the Ravens were also lucky during the game, with 3 fumbles yet none lost. Sometimes though, teams make their own luck, and Baltimore is a very good team. Having a bruiser like Henry when the temperature drops makes them that much more dangerous.
New Starting QBs Not Much Better Than the Players They Replaced
Last week, we discussed three teams that benched their QBs. So how did their new starters fare? Let’s start with Tennessee’s Mason Rudolph. He started out well and led the Titans to a 7-0 lead. Then, he basically became Will Levis. He fired 3 INTs as the Colts scored 38 unanswered points before leading a 23-0 run of his own. Rudolph finished 23/34 for 252 yards, 2 TDs, and the INTs. Honestly, he still looked better than Levis and at least moved the ball (blame the run defense for the loss). I think he’s a fine backup, but that doesn’t matter to the Titans. They need a franchise QB, and that player is nowhere to be found on the roster.
The Browns were hoping that they could find a diamond in the rough with former 5th-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Anyone who saw him over the last couple of years knew that he’s worse than Jameis Winston. That’s still completely true. He went 20/34 for 157 yards and 2 INTs, though he did add 49 rushing yards. DTR was even worse than those numbers suggest, somehow putting up just 6 points against a putrid Bengals defense. Worse still, the offense looked mostly hopeless when he was on the field. I’m not even sure he’s backup quality, but I can tell you right now that he’s definitely not a starter.
Unlike the previous two teams, Atlanta is betting that rookie Michael Penix Jr is a future franchise QB. They stupidly drafted him #8 overall if you recall! I say “stupidly” because they had just guaranteed Kirk Cousins $90M, but that doesn’t matter anymore. The team belongs to Penix now, and he got his first start against the lowly Giants. If you look at the score (34-7) and listen to the media, you’d think that Penix was superb. He actually only went 18/27 for 202 yards and an INT, though you can probably blame TE Kyle Pitts for the turnover. Atlanta’s defense scored 14 points on a pair of pick sixes, while RB Bijan Robinson scored twice.
Essentially, Penix did the bare minimum while letting his teammates dominate a team that will probably be drafting first next April. His throws inside the numbers were crisp, but outside the numbers, he completed less than 50% of his passes and often missed the mark. That’s not an indictment of Penix; it’s merely the reality of a rookie QB being tossed into the playoff chase. For what it’s worth, Tampa’s loss to Dallas puts Atlanta in first in the NFC South. I think Cousins would’ve done just as well if not better against NYG though, and at this stage, he probably still gives them the better chance to actually win a playoff game.
Sloppy Commanders Squeak by Eagles in Hurts’ Absence
In a surprisingly juicy divisional matchup, the Eagles started out great. They forced a turnover on downs and scored a TD on a drive that was naturally led by RB Saquon Barkley (29/150/2). The OPOY frontrunner had 109 first-quarter yards and had his way with Washington’s defense. However, on the second (equally successful) drive, QB Jalen Hurts took a hard hit and would be ruled out with a concussion shortly thereafter. Backup Kenny Pickett (14/24, 163 yards, TD, INT) came in and finished off the drive with a TD pass to WR AJ Brown (8/97/1), and everything seemed alright. Unfortunately, this is Kenny Pickett we’re talking about.
The former first-rounder showed why he played his way out of Pittsburgh, firing an INT on the following drive and generally failing to do much at all. Barkley added another long TD, and the defense kept the Eagles afloat. That unit forced 5 Commanders turnovers, including 2 fumbles by RB Brian Robinson Jr and 2 Jayden Daniels interceptions. The lack of any offense, however, allowed Washington to chip away. Daniels put his team on his back, throwing for 258 yards and 5 TDs and running for a team-high 81 yards. He found an unlikely weapon in WR Olamide Zacchaeus (5/70/2) and of course relied on Terry McLaurin (5/60/1).
His second INT let the Eagles extend to a 33-28 lead on K Jake Elliott’s first FG from 50+ yards all season, but it could’ve been worse. WR DeVonta Smith dropped a pass that would’ve iced the game, necessitating that FG and giving Washington a shot in a 1-possession game. Daniels would get to write the ending to this story. He calmly drove Washington down field and threw a dart to Jamison Crowder (2/15/2) on Philly’s second end-zone coverage bust of the day against the slot receiver. With the subsequent two-point conversion, the Commanders won 36-33 to inch closer to a playoff berth.
I can confidently say that this game would not have turned out the same had Hurts played the entire time. He’s far more talented than Pickett, and he helps the offense bleed clock like few others can. Philly could’ve clinched the NFC East with a win but now must wait another week. With their loss, several dreams went up in smoke. Dallas and San Francisco were eliminated as soon as the game went final, and the Eagles’ chances at the #1 seed in the NFC took a major hit (Detroit and Minnesota are cheering this). Washington is likely still a wild card team, but they showed a lot of grit. They’ll just need to be cleaner against healthy QBs.
Carolina Shocks Arizona in OT, Eliminating Cardinals
One team faced a win-or-go-home scenario, while other was 3-11. You would never have guessed who was who for the first 1.5 quarters of this game. Carolina really took it to Arizona early on, building a 20-3 lead (with a missed PAT that would be consequential later). The Panthers ripped off 3 TDs on their first 3 drives, with QB Bryce Young (17/26, 158 yards, 2 TDs; 5/68/1 rushing) looking confident and RB Chuba Hubbard (25/152/1) gashing the Cardinals at every turn. The third TD in that sequence came off a Kyler Murray fumble, which was one of the diminutive QB’s many mistakes in this contest.
In fact, Murray (20/32, 202 yards, TD, INT, FUM; 8/63/1 rushing) has been mistake-prone for several games now. He was somewhat responsible for the team’s losses in 3 of their last 4 games, and I put much of the Carolina loss on him as well. However, he did have a torrid stretch with 3 straight scoring drives that pulled the Cardinals within 3 points. The Panthers stretched their lead back to 10, but Murray answered right back with a rushing score. By that point though, he was playing without RB James Conner (15/117/1; 4/49 receiving), who injured his knee in the second half.
Losing their great rusher (and top receiver for the day) cost Arizona one drive after Murray’s TD. On 3rd and 11 (caused by the lack of Conner making the offense one-dimensional) at the Carolina 49, Murray heaved a deep ball right to Panthers S Demani Richardson for an INT. The Arizona defense give him another opportunity, and K Chad Ryland bailed them out with a 58-yard game-tying FG as time expired. In OT, Carolina got the ball first but did nothing. The Cardinals nearly went 3 and out themselves, but HC Jonathan Gannon went for a bold gamble on 4th and 2 at their own 18, which the team converted.
Unfortunately, Murray took a delay of game and a 14-yard sack a couple of plays later, and Arizona had to punt anyway. Carolina, starting at the Cardinals’ 49, handed the ball off twice in a row to Hubbard. Those carries went for 28 yards and a 21-yard TD, allowing him to fully atone for his OT fumble against Tampa Bay in week 13. This time, he walked off a 36-30 win that officially eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. Don’t look now, but coach Dave Canales is really building something with these Panthers, and it finally paid off with a win. Arizona’s story—start fast and then fade—repeated once again in 2024.