Week 14 Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
This week in the NFL, a pair of playoff spots were clinched, with Kansas City once again taking the AFC West and the Eagles earning a berth due to an Arizona loss. In other Eagles news, RB Saquon Barkley set the team’s single-season rushing record. He is actually on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s long-held record. At the other end of the spectrum, three AFC teams (Cleveland, Tennessee, and the Jets) were all eliminated from playoff contention. We’re going to be eyeing all of the action related to the playoff race moving forward, and hopefully my week 14 takeaways will help you sort everything out!
TNF: Lions Clinch NFC’s First Playoff Berth in Win vs. Packers
Can these two teams play every week? Detroit was the 11-1 team playing at home, but they’re starting to hurt on the defensive side of the ball. LB Alex Anzalone was the latest defender to go down, and DT DJ Reader was out for this game too. Fellow DT Alim McNeill left with a head injury, so the Lions really lacked bodies. LB Kwon Alexander and S Jamal Adams, who have been Lions for less than a week, both played a ton for this shorthanded defense. In spite of that, DC Aaron Glenn made it work and mostly shut down the Packers in the first half. QB Jordan Love (12/20, 206 yards, TD) didn’t hit 40 passing yards by halftime.
The Lions went right down the field on the opening drive but bogged down for a bit after that. They went with a more run-heavy approach for some reason, and Green Bay’s defense was great in the ground game. While RBs David Montgomery (14/51/1; 5/33 receiving) and Jahmyr Gibbs (15/43; 6/30/1 receiving) made some important plays, especially in the passing game, neither hit 4 yards per carry. Detroit got some help when Packers WR Christian Watson (4/114) fumbled, though he had an otherwise great game. They took control with a 17-7 lead at the break, and it didn’t seem as though we’d have much of a game.
Green Bay must’ve heard our thoughts, because they turned it on in the second half. They scored a TD within 2 minutes of the first quarter’s start and then picked off Lions QB Jared Goff before scoring again. Suddenly, the Packers had a 21-17 lead. Detroit’s missing DTs and LBs really affected their run defense. Packers RB Josh Jacobs (18/66/3) didn’t pile up a ton of yardage but was unstoppable near the goal line. Detroit retook the lead on a Tim Patrick (6/43/2) TD catch but let GB right back into the game by failing to convert a 4th and 1 at their own 31 yard line. That call was reckless but completely in character for HC Dan Campbell.
The game then turned into a classic shootout. Goff (32/41, 283 yards, 3 TDs, INT) got hot and completed 13 straight passes. WR Jameson Williams (5/80) made big plays, while the defense failed to stop the Packers except on the final drive, when they forced a tying FG. With 3:38 to go, Goff led the Lions down to the 21, where Campbell made another crazy call. Facing 4th and 1, a kick would’ve given the Lions a 34-31 lead with about 40 seconds left. Instead, he went for it so Green Bay wouldn’t get the ball back. Montgomery converted, and Jake Bates kicked a playoff-clinching 35-yard FG as time expired. This time the risk worked out.
We clearly got to see two of the NFC’s heavyweights; that was quite literal for one play (poor ref Carl Johnson, but he’s ok!). When the Detroit offense plays at its peak, nobody can keep up with them. The defense, while opportunistic, has me worried. Aside from edge rusher Za’Darius Smith, nobody can affect the QB (though I did like the play I saw from reserve DT Pat O’Connor). With any more injuries, they might be in trouble, but they’re still the league’s best team for now. Green Bay probably lost their shot at an NFC North title, but they’re a definite wild card team. These young Packers are streaky, but they can hang with anyone.
Rams Outlast Bills in Most Exciting Shootout of the Season
Please do not read this if you like defense. Neither of these teams brought that unit with them. For those of you who like offense, welcome to your game of the year. The Rams have been a solid team, but we know they have issues defensively and in protection. Conversely, Buffalo has looked like a complete juggernaut, coming into the contest on a 7-game winning streak. When LA marched right down the field for a TD, buoyed by a Puka Nacua circus catch, a statement was made. Buffalo countered right back, and this continued all throughout the game. We saw just 4 punts, 0 turnovers, and 0 sacks (but one punt block TD by LA).
In lieu of defense, we got a quarterbacking clinic. The Bills’ Josh Allen (22/37, 342 yards, 3 TDs; 10/82/3 rushing) became the first player ever with 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs in a single game. Four different Bills had 50+ receiving yards, including WRs Khalil Shakir (5/106/1), Amari Cooper (6/95), and Mack Hollins (4/57/1), as well as RB Ty Johnson (2/55/1). Allen put his superhero cape on without making any of the errors that typically accompany it. He even scored 14 unanswered points to make the score 38-35 after the Rams went up by 17 in the second half. However, the Rams were up for this type of game.
QB Matthew Stafford (23/30, 320 yards, 2 TDs) turned back the clock, almost as if he wanted to show Allen that he was once known as the guy with the cannon arm. The usual suspects assisted him, including Nacua (12/162/1; 5/16/1 rushing), fellow WR Cooper Kupp (5/92/1), and RB Kyren Williams (29/87/2). After the Bills closed their deficit to 3, LA came to a crossroads. They faced 4th and 5 at Buffalo’s 35 with 3:53 to go. A field goal attempt would’ve come from 53 yards out, and K Joshua Karty is very shaky. Additionally, even a successful FG would’ve only put the Rams up 6. That didn’t feel like a safe lead in this game.
HC Sean McVay made the very aggressive call to go on 4th down. Stafford fired a missile to TE Colby Parkinson for a first down. However, the officials missed a false start on RT Rob Havenstein. It’s a shame that officiating may have influenced this game, though maybe the football gods simply shined on McVay’s decision. The Rams scored a TD on the drive, and their choice was further validated when Karty missed the PAT and Buffalo then scored on their next drive. LA maintained a 44-42 lead and ran out the clock. Trusting in their playmakers paid off big time, and the Rams stole a game that nobody expected them to win.
This was an incredibly exciting game, but it perhaps exposed a big Bills weakness. A couple of teams, including Miami and Baltimore, have also shredded Buffalo through the air this year, so their secondary is something to keep an eye on. This loss really hurt, as the Bills fell 2 games behind the Chiefs (who won the AFC West this week) in the race for the AFC’s #1 seed. I don’t think we learned anything about LA’s defense; we knew they were pretty bad in coverage. Their win does move them to 7-6 and into second in the NFC West. They’re also just 1 game behind Washington for the #7 seed. As in 2023, this team won’t go quietly.
Dolphins Overcome Jets in OT to Stay in Wild Card Hunt
At the fringes of the AFC playoff race, Miami stands out as the most dangerous team. Unlike Indianapolis, who seems to only be able to beat bottom-feeding teams, the Dolphins have shown the ability to compete with almost everyone since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned from IR. With a 5-7 record as a result of his absence though, any more losses would be devastating to their hopes. That made this week’s game against the floundering Jets a must-win affair. New York didn’t have CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring injury) or RB Breece Hall (knee injury) for this game, making the conditions more favorable for Miami.
Divisional games have a way of producing the unexpected though. Miami scored an opening-drive TD, but K Jason Sanders hooked his first PAT miss of the season. Bouncing back nicely, he proceeded to score FGs on each of the Dolphins’ next 3 drives. The goal-line offense, which for some reason was led by speed back De’Von Achane (14/24/1; 6/45 receiving), failed miserably until Miami finally threw a pass down there. Meanwhile, the defense seemed incapable of making stops. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (27/39, 339 yards, TD) had his first 300-yard game since 2021, feeding WRs Garrett Wilson (7/114) and Davante Adams (9/109/1).
Those factors enabled the Jets to take a 23-15 lead into the 4th quarter, at which point Tagovailoa (33/47, 331 yards, 2 TDs) led the Dolphins down to the goal line. After a couple of poor runs, Tagovailoa threw a TD to WR Tyreek Hill (10/115/1) on 4th and goal before finding WR Jaylen Waddle (9/99) for a tying 2-point conversion. New York had a chance to finish the game with the ball, and they reached the Miami 27 with 1:14 to go. However, Adams went out of bounds after a catch, preserving time for Miami. Even though the Jets made their field goal, they let the Dolphins have an opportunity, which they’d rue in short order.
Dolphins WR Malik Washington provided a 45-yard KR, and the Fins advanced 20 more yards to set up a 52-yard FG. Sanders made it, his 4th of the day, to force OT. He has now made 16 straight FGs, which is the league’s longest active streak. Miami won the toss and took the ball, determined to win the game. TE Jonnu Smith, who had 0 catches in regulation, earned 3 grabs for 44 yards in OT, including the game-winning TD. For those who care, this 32-26 result was a scorigami instance! The Dolphins thus won their 9th-straight home game over NYJ to move to 6-7. Mercifully, New York was eliminated from playoff contention.
Darnold Eviscerates Falcons in Kirk Cousins’ “Revenge” Game
The biggest domino in free agency, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins left Minnesota because the Vikings refused to give him a 4-year deal like Atlanta would. Through 9 games, the Falcons had a 6-3 record and Cousins was flying high. However, he came into his Minnesota homecoming on a 3-game losing streak, having thrown for 0 TDs and 6 INTs over that stretch. Meanwhile, his replacement, Sam Darnold, has been on a tear as of late. His start to the season was impressive, but after a short lull, he has become even more confident in his new offense, and it shows. Now pitted against the man he replaced, how would he fare?
In a word: marvelously. Darnold possesses two #1 wideouts, and he knows how to use them. All-world receiver Justin Jefferson, who hadn’t scored in several games, got on the board with 2 TDs and 132 yards on 7 catches. Jordan Addison, who has been Darnold’s favorite target, did even better with 8 catches for 133 yards and 3 scores. In all, Darnold threw for 347 yards and 5 TDs on 22/28 passing, and his passer rating of 157.9 was nearly perfect. The yardage, TD total, and passer rating were all career highs. Having faced doubters since he was a Jet, Darnold perhaps wanted to make a statement to his critics, and boy did he.
That statement was that Minnesota made the correct choice in opting for him over an expensive Cousins deal. While Cousins (23/37, 344 yards) put up good yardage and connected well with WR Darnell Mooney (6/142), he completely melted down with the score tied at 21. He tossed his 2nd INT of the game and passed for no TDs on the day. His Falcons also got outscored 21-0 in the 4th quarter. The loss drops Atlanta out of first place in the NFC South behind the surging Buccaneers. With Tampa possessing a pretty easy schedule moving forward, the Falcons’ playoff hopes are fading rather quickly.
Back to Darnold for a minute. When I hear people talk about him, it always seems like they’re waiting for an implosion. They expect him to revert to his Jets form or, for the less pessimistic, his Panthers version. Let me ask you this though: is it possible that the problem wasn’t Darnold but rather the Jets and Panthers? Those teams have been just as dysfunctional (if not worse) since he left. The man was the #3 overall pick, and he had the talent to go #1. Since he left his initial teams and finally got coached well by the likes of Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell, he has looked great. Maybe this isn’t a mirage at all.
The Race for the #1 Draft Pick is Heating Up
As much as we like to talk about the excitement of the playoff chase, more than half the league will not be participating in the postseason. The very worst of these teams are instead after a different prize: the #1 draft pick. I hesitated to use the word “prize”, as the 2025 draft is notably weak at the QB position, which is what most of the bad teams need. Regardless, teams always overvalue signal callers, so at the very least the “winner” of the #1 pick can auction off the selection. With that in mind, let’s take stock of the (anti-)contenders who could end the NFL season already on the clock.
If the season ended today, the New York Giants would pick first and for good reason. They mailed in their season weeks ago by releasing former starting QB Daniel Jones. Since then, they’ve been pretending that Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock are decent options in an excellent tank job. Both have been putrid, but NYG somehow (i.e., Derek Carr’s brainless hurdle) had a chance to tie this week’s game against the Saints with an FG. However, DT Bryan Bresee blocked the 35-yard kick, and the Giants lost their 8th straight game to fall to 2-11. I’m not sure they can win another game, which may be the goal. If so, the #1 draft pick will be theirs.
The only other 2-11 team is the Las Vegas Raiders, who one-upped the Giants with a 9-game current losing streak. They have just one thing going for them: rookie TE Brock Bowers is a star who broke the rookie TE receptions record. LV lacks a QB, even if Aidan O’Connell actually got carted off in an air cast for nothing more than a bone bruise. They’re feisty enough to steal a win though, which may cost them that top pick. After them, we have a logjam of six 3-10 teams, which I consider the best record with a shot at finishing in last place. Sorry Bears fans; even as bad as Chicago looks, 4-9 seems a bit too far out.
Two of those 3-10 record resulted from poor AFC South teams playing each other. Jacksonville “bested” Tennessee in a poorly played 10-6 game that I’m not sure either team tried to win. Of course the players on the field did their best, but with Mac Jones and Will Levis as the QB, respectively, what kind of game did you expect? Their week 17 rematch will determine their relative draft order. Cleveland, who beat the Jaguars, probably aren’t bad enough to fall back down with Jameis Winston starting. The same goes for the Jets, who have way too much talent to possess just 3 wins. They can at least beat Jacksonville in week 16.
Our last 3-10 AFC team is the New England Patriots, who were off this week. My original choice as the league’s worst team, the Pats have gotten a spark from rookie QB Drake Maye. However, he has no help, and this might be the least-talented roster in the NFL. With four likely losses ahead, New England could swoop in if the Giants or Raiders surprise anyone. For those wondering, the Patriots split with the Jets and actually lost to the Jaguars. I’d view them as the likely #2 pick right now. Even if they lose all 4 of their remaining games, the Giants will likely do the same. I can imagine Las Vegas winning one more game and dropping back.
Finally, our lone 3-10 team from the NFC is the Carolina Panthers. They’re the only team mentioned thus far that is actually not eliminated from playoff contention (thanks to playing in the NFC South). Carolina also lost 2nd-round rookie RB Jonathon Brooks to a re-torn ACL. Surprisingly though, the Panthers look the best of any of these teams. They pushed the Chiefs to their limit 3 weeks ago, forced OT against Tampa, and nearly beat the Eagles in succession. All three games were losses, yes, but QB Bryce Young and the defense are looking MUCH better. I anticipate them picking 8th, behind all 7 of these other teams.