Week 12 Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
Just because a season-high 6 teams were on a bye doesn’t mean we had any less action this week! The Lions reached 10-1, which is their best record since 1934. Baltimore won the latest edition of the Harbaugh bowl. Elsewhere in the AFC North, we had our first snow game of the year. Miami and Seattle are surging, while Houston and Washington are fading quickly. The NFC East looks like a lock for the Eagles, and the NFC West is a complete mess. In week 13, we’ll have 3 games on Thursday and one on Friday. Before we get there though, let’s take a look at my week 12 takeaways for the 2024 NFL season!
TNF: Browns Knock Off Steelers at Home in Blizzard
We started with gentle flurries in snowy Cleveland. The Browns came in while down to their third-string tackle, and their defense seemed to be mailing it in last week against the Saints. Conversely, the Steelers had won 5 straight and looked to make it 6 in a row against their rivals. Divisional games are tough though, and the Browns showed up for this one. Reigning DPOY Myles Garrett sacked Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson (21/28, 270 yards, TD, FUM) on the first drive to force a 58-yard FG attempt, which became just the second miss of the year for K Chris Boswell (thank Al Michaels for the announcer jinx).
In a battle between two DPOY winners, Garrett got the better of TJ Watt. While the latter registered just 1 TFL, Garrett racked up 3 sacks, all in the first half. One of those was a strip sack that led directly to a Browns FG. Pittsburgh had no offensive answers in the first half despite Wilson starting 11/11. The Steelers had a Justin Fields package, which was a disaster. His first two snaps resulted in a false start and a run stuff on 4th down. The running game struggled overall, as the Cleveland defensive line really came to play. Pittsburgh scored just 3 first-half points and trailed 10-3 at the break.
After halftime, the conditions got much worse, with snow barraging the field. It had a massive impact. Each team’s punter had one awful shank, and both passing attacks struggled at times due to wind and poor visibility. Browns QB Jameis Winston (18/27, 219 yards, INT, rush TD) lost a fumble and threw an INT on consecutive drive. He didn’t even make a bad throw or read; the ball simply fluttered in the storm. The turnovers allowed Pittsburgh to take an 18-6 deficit and lead 19-18. With one more chance, Winston led a go-ahead TD drive. He leaned heavily on WR Jerry Jeudy (6/85), and RB Nick Chubb (20/58/2) punched it in.
In the end, the Browns won their second game against an AFC North heavyweight 24-19. This loss will sting Pittsburgh, as it was a great chance to extend their divisional lead. I’m not too worried about a road loss to a rival in a snowstorm though. Cleveland arguably did poorly by winning, as they aren’t surging to the playoffs at 3-8 but also hurt their draft pick. These players don’t (and shouldn’t) care though. My biggest takeaway for Cleveland is how much better the Browns look without Deshaun Watson. I’ll keep saying it, but they actually have energy with Winston. Imagine what could’ve been had Winston started the whole season.
Giants Bench Then Release Daniel Jones, Start Tommy DeVito
Rather than grinding things out following their benching of Daniel Jones, the Giants granted the QB his requested release. I like this because they chose not to delay the inevitable. Jones had $23M in injury guarantees for next season, so he was never going to play another down for NYG and risk triggering that cash flow. The odd part was the QB they chose to replace him. Instead of opting for backup Drew Lock, they went with fan-favorite Tommy DeVito. Lock, who like Jones was a premium pick in the 2019 draft, has more upside to me, but perhaps that’s what the Giants were afraid of if they’re tanking here.
We probably know who these two QBs are, and maybe there isn’t much difference. However, DeVito’s performance against Tampa inspired no confidence. His 21/31 line wasn’t bad, but he mostly took short throws and only earned 189 yards on those completions. DeVito’s propensity for holding onto the ball too long led to 4 sacks, which short-circuited drives. The Giants scored just 7 garbage-time points, which came with TB up 30-0 in the 4th quarter. Things got so bad that Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, surely emboldened by the return of WR Mike Evans, taunted the crowd with DeVito’s own celebration following a rushing TD.
It’s clear that DeVito is not better than Jones at this point in time, and we arguably have enough evidence to say that he won’t be in the future either. This move clearly had financial considerations behind it, as HC Brian Daboll has concluded that Jones is not NY’s franchise QB. Therefore, why play him and risk triggering the guarantees? As a result, the Giants are going to win very few games and try to draft another QB this April. Fans probably won’t enjoy the rest of this season. Jones wants to latch onto a playoff contender, but maybe he should go somewhere he can play and rebuild his value. Perhaps the Raiders would be a good fit?
Nearly Magical Finishes for Commanders and Bears
Two incredibly close divisional games nearly had very different endings, but it was fun to watch them even get this close to begin with. Entering on a 4-game losing streak, Chicago played competitively against Minnesota for most of the contest. They trailed by just 7 points in the third quarter, but their chance to take an early lead passed them by due to another blocked FG. The Bears lost last week against Green Bay due to a field goal that was blocked because of pressure up the middle, and this week’s block was a replica of that play. I don’t know what this unit is doing wrong, but they need to clean things up.
On a positive note, offense looked much improved. New OC Thomas Brown dialed up good plays for rookie QB Caleb Williams (32/47, 340 yards, 2 TDs), who had his best game in weeks. WRs DJ Moore (7/106/1) and Keenan Allen (9/86/1) both got involved, which was great to see. Still Minnesota took a 24-10 lead into the 4th quarter, as the Bears’ yardage failed to translate into many points. At that point, Chicago caught fire. Williams led a 10-play TD drive, but Chicago did not convert their 2-point attempt. I still hate that analytics play. Minnesota added a field goal with 1:56 to go, and the situation became dire.
Williams managed to lead another TD drive, and he even converted the two-point try to Moore. Desperately needing an onside kick with 22 seconds left, Chicago got a miracle. Although the ball did not travel 10 yards, it hit Vikings TE Johnny Mundt, and the Bears recovered. One 27-yard pass to Moore and a spike later, K Cairo Santos redeemed the FG unit with a 48-yard kick. The game went to OT, where things fell apart. Chicago won the toss and went three and out. They let Minnesota march down the field for a walk-off FG to lose 30-27, and their fans booed an injury to a member of the chain gang. This loss feels a bit like karma.
Dallas started their game against Washington (and former DC Dan Quinn) in typical fashion. Their first drive ended with a blocked Brandon Aubrey FG, and the elite kicker missed another FG on the team’s second possession. Those would be the only bright spots for the Commanders’ special teams, but with neither team moving the ball effectively in the first three quarters, the Cowboys managed to take a 10-9 lead into the final period. The surprising part was Washington’s offense. QB Jayden Daniels (25/38, 274 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; 7/74/1 rushing) had his stats greatly inflated by garbage time, and he got no help on the ground.
Dallas has possessed a terrible defense this year, but OLB Micah Parsons (2 sacks) is back to his normal self, and CB DaRon Bland made his season debut. Bland did a fantastic job on WR Terry McLaurin (5/102/1), who had just 16 yards when matched up against Bland. The Cowboys appeared to break the game open at 20-9, but Washington finally woke up and scored a TD. However, their 2-point conversion failed; they needed one because K Austin Seibert missed an earlier PAT. On the following kickoff, KR KaVontae Turpin dropped the ball, but he recovered and blasted 99 yards to the house, leaving the crowd stunned.
One of my top returners, Turpin is truly electric, but Washington’s ST unit had a terrible day. Later, down 27-20 with 21 seconds remaining, Daniels hit McLaurin for a deep pass, but the Cowboys couldn’t tackle him despite dropping everyone into coverage, and the play went for an 86-yard TD. Amazingly, Seibert missed another PAT (his 3rd missed kick of the day), forcing Washington to go for an onside kick…which Juanyeh Thomas returned for a TD. Daniels’ subsequent Hail Mary was picked off, and the Commanders lost 34-26. Is Daniels hitting a rookie wall? That’s 3 mediocre performances/losses in a row, so we’ll see.
Bryce Young and CJ Stroud Heading in Different Directions
Before anyone misconstrues this: no, I am not at all suggesting that Panthers QB Bryce Young is or will be better than Houston’s CJ Stroud. However, the 1st and 2nd picks of the 2023 draft, respectively, are on different trajectories. We’ve all seen Young’s dismal start to his pro career, which hit its nadir when he was benched earlier this season. Since he returned though, he has slowly shown some development that might give the most optimistic fans hope. His stats from this week’s game against Kansas City (21/35, 263 yards, TD; 3/20 rushing) won’t wow you, but he has seldom looked better in the NFL.
Facing a very stout defense, Young released the ball quickly and only took 2 sacks. He showed poise in the pocket and made good throws, and he was clearly pleased to have WR Adam Thielen (3/57) back from injury. I most enjoyed what he did once Carolina went down 20-6. Instead of panicking and pressing, Young led three straight methodical scoring drives to move within 8. On his final drive, he led the Panthers to a TD and a 2-point conversion to tie the game at 27. Naturally, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes then had a 33-yard scramble that set up the game-winning FG, but I’m liking the progress Young has put on display.
Stroud’s case is a little harder to decipher. We’ve talked about his 2nd-year struggles before, and the offensive line is a major part of that. His play has also notably dipped from his fantastic rookie year. Previously the king of ball security, Stroud threw 2 more INTs this week against Tennessee, bringing his total up to 9. I’m noticing his internal clock speeding up too much as a result of his poor protection. When he remains calm and plays his normal way, he’s still lethal. In fact, he threw for 247 yards and 2 TDs this week. The errors are mounting though, and they’re really hurting the team. It often hasn’t cost Houston, but for once it did.
Much of the Texans’ 32-27 home loss to a poor Tennessee team cannot be pinned on Stroud. The defense somehow made Titans QB Will Levis look great, and RB Tony Pollard ripped off 119 yards and a TD on the ground. With the score at 30-27, Houston still had a great chance to tie the game, but K Kaimi Fairbairn shanked a 28-yard FG. The Texans got the ball back one more time, but Stroud was sacked in the end zone for a safety. I’ll repeat what I’ve said before: Houston is in little danger of losing the AFC South, as this division is rather terrible. Their likelihood of going one-and-done in the playoffs, however, is rapidly rising.
To put a bow on this, Stroud regressing a bit and Young improving should not make you suddenly think that the Panthers got the #1 pick right after all. The upside has always been higher for Stroud, as Young’s size limitations cap what he will be able to do at his best. I’m trying to point out that judging a young signal caller too quickly can be a fool’s errand. What we saw from Stroud last year wasn’t a mirage, and Young’s prior ineptitude does not preclude him from reaching his potential. Patience is required from everyone, and hopefully these two players can continue to grow and develop into the best versions of themselves.
NFC West as Jumbled as Ever After Week-12 Results
The difference between first and last place in the NFC West before this week was just 1 game. Now that week 12 is in the books, the gap is…1 game. Two teams are 6-5, while two others are 5-6. Interestingly, the sub-.500 squads are the ones who made the playoffs in 2023. San Francisco, last year’s NFC Super Bowl representative, is a bundle of damaged goods right now. Anyone who expected the Niners to go to Lambeau Field and beat Green Bay without QB Brock Purdy, DE Nick Bosa, CB Charvarius Ward, and LT Trent Williams was probably dreaming. Even the most pessimistic viewer probably didn’t anticipate a 38-10 beating though.
Backup quarterback Brandon Allen (17/29, 199 yards, TD, INT, FUM) wasn’t great, and I personally would’ve started Josh Dobbs. That’s a moot point though when you have just 31 yards of rushing and a defense that resembles Swiss cheese. TE George Kittle (6/82/1) was the only weapon who had a good day for SF. Green Bay saw RB Josh Jacobs run for 106 yards and 3 TDs. The Packers didn’t even bother trying to reach 200 yards passing because they didn’t have to. Even if San Francisco gets healthier, I struggle to see them going on a tear. This simply isn’t the team that we’ve watched over the past couple of years.
Our other playoff participant trying to return to the dance is the LA Rams. Their 5-5 record looked pretty good given the injuries they had to withstand, but hosting Philadelphia is a major test. Offensively, the Rams held their own, although an early fumble by RB Kyren Williams really hurt. The star trio of QB Matthew Stafford (24/36, 243 yards, 2 TDs) and WRs Puka Nacua (9/117) and Cooper Kupp (8/60/1) were good as usual, but the defense was atrocious. That unit let Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (26/255/2; 4/47 receiving) have a legendary day en route to an easy 37-20 win. LA seems to have a talent deficiency, just like the 49ers.
The other two NFC West teams faced each other. Both Arizona and Seattle are known more for their offenses, but only the defenses showed up. I suppose that makes sense given that both teams have former DCs as their coaches, but we haven’t seen such good play from these units. The Cardinals did a great job against QB Geno Smith (22/31, 254 yards, TD, INT), forcing a red zone INT and sacking him 5 times. Neither team had any success running the football, and each had just one effective receiving weapon: TE Trey McBride (12/133) for Arizona and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6/77/1) for Seattle.
Arizona’s defense had just one issue: Seattle’s stop unit played even better. DT Leonard Williams in particular was a monster with 2.5 sacks, 3 TFLs, and a PBU. He demolished the Cardinals’ plans and was a key reason why they scored just 6 points. His teammates stepped up too though. S Coby Bryant picked off a 4th-down Kyler Murray pass for a 69-yard TD, which loomed large in a 16-6 contest. That one play exceeded Arizona’s entire scoring output. Unlike the two games above, this one could have massive tiebreaker implications within the division. As of right now, it’s Seattle who would earn a home playoff game.