Five Predictions for the 2025 NFL Season
Football is almost back! The first preseason game, the Hall of Fame game, takes place this Thursday. As we did last year, we’re going to try and make some predictions for the 2025 NFL season. Trying to forecast things before teams play an exhibition game is a fool’s errand, but you can’t deny that it’s fun to do. The same themes from previous years apply: teams I think can go worst-to-first in their divisions, new expected playoff teams, impactful veteran QBs who changed teams, and #1 draft pick candidates. At the risk of looking idiotic later, let’s take a shot at some of these (possibly wild) predictions!
Worst-to-First Candidates
Since the most recent divisional realignment took place in 2002, a team has gone from worst in their division to first the following year in every season except 2014, 2019, and 2024. The fact that we went without one just last year tells you that this isn’t a guarantee, but the NFL still loves its parity. League officials adore the perception (with decent evidence backing it up) that a team can completely rebound in just one offseason. Normally, I give you at least two names of teams that could make such a leap, but I had trouble going beyond just one this time around. The 4th-place teams from 2024 actually look somewhat doomed.
New England should be better this year, but Buffalo is a heavy favorite to retain their AFC East crown. The same is true for Las Vegas, where the Chiefs are far more likely to be threatened by Denver than anyone else. New Orleans, Cleveland, and Tennessee are simply bad teams that would have to shock the world to win their divisions. I like the Chicago Bears to take a big step forward, but I can’t pick them to win the NFC North. Detroit and Minnesota each won 14 games last year, while Green Bay won 11. All three of those teams are too good to finish below Chicago. That leaves us just one option…the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners lost a ton of talent this offseason. LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarious Ward, and S Talanoa Hufanga, OT Jaylon Moore and WR Deebo Samuel will be missed. This team’s core is just too good for me to quit though. QB Brock Purdy, a newly paid man, is still there. WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Christian McCaffrey, and OT Trent Williams should all be returning from injury-riddled seasons. Nobody should forget LB Fred Warner, TE George Kittle, or HC Kyle Shanahan either. Combine that talent with a last-place schedule, and San Francisco is capable of winning an average NFC West, with only the LA Rams really standing in their way.
New Playoff Teams That Missed the Dance in 2023
Another remarkable trend demonstrating parity in the NFL is that each year, 5-7 teams who didn’t make the playoffs in a given season will earn a berth the following year. Who do we expect to exchange playoff spots this time around? Based on what you just read above, the 49ers are a prime choice. Even if everything doesn’t break their way, a 2nd-place finish in the NFC West and a Wild Card berth seem like their floor. Another team with some injury regression could be the Dallas Cowboys. QB Dak Prescott is back, and that alone should give new HC Brian Schottenheimer a chance in his debut season.
One final NFC team could be the Atlanta Falcons. I whiffed on them last year, but I couldn’t have known that Kirk Cousins’ elbow would fall apart. Year 2 for Michael Penix Jr and a weak NFC South might be just what they need. Over in the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are my best bet. They went 9-8 behind an elite offense and a putrid defense. The stop unit can’t possibly be that bad again, so any improvement gets Joe Burrow and company in. Finally, a dark horse is the Jacksonville Jaguars. They imploded last year, but new HC Liam Coen could at last maximize QB Trevor Lawrence. That alone may be enough to claim the AFC South.
The hard part comes next: I need to pick 5 teams that will miss the playoffs to make room for my choices above. Actually, the new teams were harder to select this time. I had a few teams in mind that could easily fall out of the playoffs before thinking of fresh participants. The NFC North is unlikely to send 3 teams to the postseason again. Detroit is still my clear-cut favorite, but the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers could slip. Minnesota is loaded with talent and has a great HC in Kevin O’Connell. New starting QB JJ McCarthy though? I’m not a buyer, and the difference between him and Sam Darnold could be massive.
Green Bay just seems overrated to me. They’ve got a lot of good-but-not-great players, giving them a solid floor. However, is QB Jordan Love going to be less of a turnover machine?
How Will Teams’ New Veteran QBs Fare?
Unlike last season, where only four teams brought in new veteran quarterbacks, this year brings us many new faces. Setting aside Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr, who technically wasn’t the week-1 starter last year but is still the incumbent, seven experienced passers are likely to start in new uniforms in 2025. They include JJ McCarthy, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Daniel Jones (maybe). Indianapolis could still choose to see Anthony Richardson can give them. However, at this stage, Jones seems to be the frontrunner for the starting job with Richardson hurt yet again.
Maybe you view McCarthy as a redshirt rookie for Minnesota. That’s fair; his rookie season was wiped out by a torn meniscus. Still, he’s a new starter who isn’t an actual rookie, so I’m counting him. I’ve never been as high on him as others have been. He deserved credit for taking care of the football at Michigan and allowing an elite roster to carry him to a title. In the NFL though, any weak link is exposed, and no one can hide. With how good the rest of the Vikings roster is, McCarthy couldn’t ask for a better situation. By the same token though, that might cause defenses to pick on him with few other attractive targets.
Geno Smith starting for the Raiders was a surprise. He was supposed to sign an extension in Seattle, but he opted for a fresh start via trade instead. His new home comes with far fewer weapons but a superior offensive line and running game. I’ve enjoyed watching his late-career renaissance, and he should at least make Las Vegas respectable. His replacement in Seattle is Darnold, who came over after 14 wins with the Vikings. The Seahawks’ poor line could be his undoing, or he could take the lessons he learned from Kevin O’Connell and Kyle Shanahan to new heights. I suspect he’ll be an above-average starter but not elite.
Rodgers and Wilson are back on this list for a second-straight year, albeit with very different expectations. Each was expected to be the missing piece on a contender, with Rodgers in particular launching the Jets to new heights. Neither scenario worked out, and now Rodgers is tasked with upgrading Wilson in Pittsburgh. Late last season, we saw glimpses of the old Rodgers. Another year removed from Achilles surgery, maybe he has something left in the tank after all. Wilson should be a serviceable option in New York, but that team is going nowhere, and rookie Jaxson Dart is their future. I’ll be impressed if Wilson starts the whole year.
Fields is replacing Rodgers, which would have been unenviable a few years ago. After New York’s 5-12 campaign though, his expectations are minimal. He’s essentially on a 1-year deal, and the team hopes he can become a star. As well as he runs, I still don’t trust his passing. Fields already hurt his toe, so he might be forced to stay in the pocket, which would be bad. Jones is playing more for 2026. If he manages to start for the Colts (I think he will), his job is to prove that 2022 wasn’t an outlier. He’ll have good support, but I think we know his ceiling: a low-end starter who can manage a game, not a franchise QB.
Rookies That Will Make an Immediate Impact
Rookies are tough to project. Many need time to adapt to the speed and technique of the NFL, whereas others hit the ground running and produce right away. With only 1 QB selected in the top 20 this year, you’d anticipate everyone to be watching Tennessee’s Cam Ward. Perhaps that will be true once the games start, but he has gotten surprisingly little attention for a #1 overall quarterback pick. He’s the only guy who scouts thought had the arms and the intangibles to become a star. His risk-taking ways will need to be toned down, but the Titans are putting him in position to have a solid rookie campaign.
Only one other rookie QB has a chance to start early in the season, and that’s Tyler Shough of the Saints. The team is having a true competition, but if the second-rounder with 7 years of college time can’t beat out Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, that’s a problem. He has a few weapons to work with, but his best trick might be helping his team earn the #1 pick in 2026. He’ll receive help from #9 pick Kelvin Banks Jr. The new LT could bookend a really nice offensive line with Taliese Fuaga for years to come. That selection has a higher chance of working out. At least the line should be ready for the next QB in NO.
Another lineman will have even more of an impact: #4 pick Will Campbell of the Patriots. QB Drake Maye had awful protection last year. If he’s to become a franchise QB, he can’t be running for his life. Should Campbell be able to hold down the LT spot, it would go a long way toward making life easier for Maye. His arms may be a bit short, but his technique is excellent. Similarly, #32 pick Josh Simmons needs to be the Chiefs’ answer at LT. He’s coming off a torn patellar tendon but seems ready to go. QB Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl because of his protection. Another year without a solid blindside blocker would be a waste.
At RB, it’s all about the Raiders’ Ashton Jeanty (#6 overall). He’s the most touted runner in years, and Las Vegas had one of the league’s worst attacks in 2024. New coach Pete Carroll is counting on him to set a new culture with his hard-charging style. I personally think he can deliver if the passing games does anything to help. Interestingly, none of the WRs were drafted to teams that could see them make splashes. One TE did though: Tyler Warren of the Colts (#14 overall). Indianapolis had a good set of weapons but nothing at TE. Warren is an exceptional athlete who could be Brock Bowers Lite with an ounce of QB competence.
The meat of this draft came from the defensive side of the ball. When I said that no WRs were likely to be highly impactful, I should have said pure WRs. You didn’t think we’d go too far without talking about #2 pick Travis Hunter, the two-way unicorn prospect, did you? Hunter began his offseason work with the Jaguars’ offense because WR is a harder position to learn than CB. Since then, he has worked with both units to make his two-way dream a reality. Offensively, it may take time for him to make his mark. Given Jacksonville’s need for secondary help and Hunter’s athleticism, that could be his early place to shine.
Our first two edge rushers of note happen to play for the same team. Atlanta mortgaged a 2026 first-round pick to ensure they acquired both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. The Falcons had the worst edge rush in the NFL last season, and they clearly knew something had to change. Both players are skilled and athletic enough to make an immediate difference. Baltimore also grabbed an intriguing DE in Mike Green. The FBS sack leader fell to the second round due to serious off-the-field issues, but he dominated at the Senior Bowl. If everything checks out with him character-wise, he might end up being a steal.
One inside linebacker felt like a match made in heaven. Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell, an elite player who slipped to the end of the first round because of injuries, inexplicably found his way to the Eagles. We saw with Zack Baun that DC Vic Fangio’s scheme thrives with LBs that can cover and stuff the run with equal effectiveness. Nakobe Dean recovering is recovering from a serious injury, so Campbell has a chance to see the field early. Assuming his body is right, I really love this fit. Campbell plays with a full head of steam at the line of scrimmage but also has the agility to hang back at the second level.
Finally, my rookies of interest in the secondary are almost all 2nd-round picks. That was the sweet spot for drafting them this year apparently. Washington’s Trey Amos, Arizona’s Will Johnson, and Tampa’s Benjamin Morrison all had first-round skillsets but slid due to injuries. Another similarity is that they all fill desperate CB needs. All three of these teams consider themselves playoff contenders or better, but they have weaknesses in coverage. The trio of rookies listed above are all skilled outside corners who will be tasked with being #1 cover men. We’ll know pretty soon whether they’re up to the task or not.
The lone first-round safety, Baltimore’s Malaki Starks finds himself in a great spot. He’s joining a really strong defense where his instincts should mesh really well. Don’t be shocked if he has a good INT total this year. Seattle’s Nick Emmanwori is an athletic specimen who can pretty much do anything in a defensive backfield. He’ll stuff the stat sheet for the Seahawks. Some felt that Andrew Mukuba was a reach by the Eagles in the 2nd round due to size limitations, but when your roster is loaded, you can spend draft capital on niche picks. His ball-hawking ways are perfect for replacing the departed CJ Gardner-Johnson.
Race for the #1 Overall Draft Pick
The interesting thing about trying to project the team that’ll have the first record is that the very worst teams play in the weakest divisions. That could enable them to steal a win or two, potentially costing them the #1 draft pick. Carolina and New Orleans, both teams with poor rosters, play each other twice as NFC South foes, so they could mutually harm both of their chances. Cleveland is widely projected to be bad team due to their QB issues and strong division, but that roster isn’t appreciably different than the one that made the playoffs in 2023 with Joe Flacco, and he could very well open the season as the starter.
That leaves two of the most likely options as the Titans and Giants. Tennessee is starting a rookie QB and has a much worse defense than they did in recent years, but the AFC South is not difficult at all. Therefore, I’m picking the New York Giants. The NFC East is brutal; Philadelphia won the Super Bowl after beating Washington in the NFC Championship game. Dallas struggled a year ago but returns several key players from injury, so they should be much improved. The Giants, on the other hand, have some really good talent on defense, but I still don’t have much belief in their ability to score many points.
At this stage of his career, QB Russell Wilson is probably not much better than Daniel Jones was before the Giants cut him midway through last season. Their first-round pick, OLB Adbul Carter, doesn’t move the needle much because the edge rush was already a position of strength. RB Tyrone Tracy is a solid player, but he’s not a game-changer. Even if he were elite, it’s hard to run behind such an awful offensive line. New York’s failure to upgrade that unit (and the injury risk posed by Andrew Thomas, their one good lineman) could sink the team. With all of these factors working against them, the Giants could well pick first in 2026.