Five Predictions for the 2024 NFL Season
Football is almost back! The first preseason game, the Hall of Fame game, takes place this Thursday. As we did last year, we’re going to try and make some predictions for the 2024 NFL season. We had a middling go of it in 2023, but I suppose that’s to be expected when you’re trying to prognosticate in July. The same themes apply: teams I think can go worst-to-first in their divisions, new expected playoff teams, impactful veteran QBs who changed teams, and #1 draft pick candidates. At the risk of looking foolish later, let’s take a shot at some of these predictions!
Worst-to-First Candidates
Since the most recent divisional realignment took place in 2002, a team has gone from worst in their division to first the following year in every season except 2014 and 2019. For the second consecutive year, a team picking in the top 2 managed to be a worst-to-first team. In 2023, it was the Houston Texans, buoyed by rookie QB CJ Stroud and new HC DeMeco Ryans. The Jets failed to do so because of Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles, so everything analysts expected went out the window. This year, I’m only seeing one obvious candidate, and that’s the Cincinnati Bengals.
These cats play in football’s toughest division. Last year, they finished last in spite of a 9-8 record, which is exceedingly rare. Impressively, that was without QB Joe Burrow, who missed half the season with a wrist injury. If Jake Browning could lead the team to a winning record, Burrow can certainly do better. Perhaps more importantly, Cincy remade the safety position. Bringing back Von Bell and signing Geno Stone away from Baltimore fix the defense’s biggest weakness. The Ravens lost linemen, Pittsburgh has QB questions, and Cleveland is still waiting for good Deshaun Watson. The Bengals can pull this off.
Most of the other last-place finishers don’t seem to have a prayer. If I have to take a stab at one more candidate, I’ll go with the Chicago Bears. Think of this as a repeat Texans scenario. Caleb Williams plays the role of CJ Stroud, boosting an offense that has some pieces. Few WR trios can match DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. The defense played much better the second Chicago traded for DE Montez Sweat. Keeping Matt Eberflus as the head coach allows them to build on that success. If everything clicks, and Detroit has a bit of regression of course, maybe the Bears can surprise people.
New Playoff Teams That Missed the Dance in 2023
Another remarkable trend demonstrating parity in the NFL is that each year, 5-7 teams who didn’t make the playoffs in a given season will earn a berth the following year. Who do we expect to exchange playoff spots this time around? According to my worst-to-first picks, I’m obliged to select the Bengals and Bears. I’m more confident in the former than the latter, but the NFC is a weaker conference. One easy pick is the Atlanta Falcons. This team went 7-10 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at QB, nearly winning the putrid NFC South. Replace those two with Kirk Cousins, and you’re in business.
A year later, I’m taking another swing at the New York Jets. Rodgers is healthy this time right? That defense did amazing work to reach 7-10 despite Zach Wilson leading the offense. The Super Bowl-or-bust version of the Jets is back in full force. Over in the AFC South, I think the Jacksonville Jaguars should rebound. Their late-season collapse felt fluky and injury-related. Trevor Lawrence is too talented for that to happen again. Finally, let’s put the New Orleans Saints in the postseason. They came close last year, and all it will take is one team to underperform to nudge them to a playoff berth.
Now we come to a difficult task. By selecting 6 new playoff teams, I must also choose the 6 squads that they’ll be replacing. Three must come from the AFC, while the other three will be from the NFC based on our added teams. In a selection that goes against conventional wisdom, I’m going to boot the Baltimore Ravens. Much is being made about Baltimore signing RB Derrick Henry. However, replacing 3 starting offensive linemen, S Geno Stone, and LB Patrick Queen is a nearly impossible task. Couple that with the absolute brutality of the AFC North, and I can see the Ravens coming up short.
It will still be hard for the AFC North to send 3 teams again, so let’s remove one more. This is a tough call, but I’m going with the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh is too consistently decent, their defense is great, and Russell Wilson can’t do worse than Kenny Pickett did in 2023. The Browns, however, meet all the criteria for a letdown. They are switching QBs, in this case back to Deshaun Watson, who has not looked good to date as a Brown. RB Nick Chubb is coming off a major injury as well. There’s also the matter of the team’s -9 turnover differential. You don’t win 11 games every year doing that.
Our last AFC team is a dark horse: the Buffalo Bills. Miami and the Jets are for real, so Buffalo would need to get in as the 3rd AFC East team. Losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis made me sour on a team that I already thought was losing steam last year. QB Josh Allen covers for a lot, but this may be too much. In the NFC, the easiest target is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I already have Atlanta and New Orleans making the playoffs from the NFC South. The Bucs weren’t great last year, and they definitely aren’t good enough to be a third playoff team from the same division.
The other two NFC teams are a bit tougher to pin down. A pair of wild card teams from last year could see their luck run out. First, the Green Bay Packers greatly overachieved last year. They’re a young team, but that could mean a sophomore slump is coming. The NFC North got harder with Chicago’s expected ascent, so the road won’t be as easy for GB. Finally, the Los Angeles Rams might have had too much injury luck to sustain last year. This team is still fairly thin, and it will need to stay healthy once again to take advantage of its top-heavy roster. Even worse, DT Aaron Donald retired. No team in the league had a bigger loss.
How Will Teams’ New Veteran QBs Fare?
For the first time in a while, we didn’t have a ton of veteran QBs switching teams for starting roles. Many backups changed uniforms, but with 6 first-round rookie QBs selected in April, teams went the draft route for new starters. We did have 5 veteran QBs sign with new teams with the expectation of starting, at least for a little while. I’m not counting Aaron Rodgers here even though he’s basically new. Our new starting QBs include Kirk Cousins for sure; Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold most likely; and possibly Gardner Minshew.
The first case is the easy one; Cousins went from Minnesota to Atlanta for long-term security and to start. The Falcons tried to botch everything by drafting Michael Penix Jr at #8 overall, but Cousins is definitely starting this year. As his task is simply to upgrade Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder, I expect him to easily reach expectations. Supposedly, his Achilles rehab is going well, and I anticipate him making the Falcons NFC South Champions right away. He has good weapons, including Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, at his disposal to help him reach that goal.
Wilson was signed by Pittsburgh for the veteran minimum, as offset language in his contract means that Denver will be paying him most of his salary. The team also traded for Justin Fields, but it seems like Wilson is in line to start. I don’t know how long his leash is, but he’s in a better situation now than he was with the Broncos. This team will be good, as a Mike Tomlin-coached squad is always competitive, but the offense will determine how far the Steelers go. Wilson was quietly better in 2023 after a putrid 2022 season. He’s not the same guy as before, but I think he can be competent here and return to the playoffs.
Brissett and Darnold are in the same boat. A backup with Washington last year, Brissett is back with the Patriots (the team that drafted him) as the bridge to #3 overall pick Drake Maye. Maye has not looked good, so Brissett is likely to start until the week 14 bye. Brissett has shown that he can hold down the fort, so perhaps the Patriots won’t be the worst team in the league with him at the helm. Similarly, Darnold came to Minnesota from San Francisco to start until #10 pick JJ McCarthy is ready. WR Justin Jefferson will make Darnold look good, but this may be a 4th-place team in the NFC North.
Minshew is the one who may not actually start. Las Vegas seems to be rooting for the former Colt to lose to 2nd-year player Aidan O’Connell. Given that O’Connell was a 4th-round pick without a lot of upside, I’d much rather start Minshew and give my team a chance at the playoffs. If he starts, Minshew is plucky and can play pretty well at times. He’s an elite backup or a low-end starter, but he’ll give the Raiders all he has and make them competitive. O’Connell is still probably going to get the first crack at the job, but if winning is the priority in the desert, Minshew will start before too long.
Rookies That Will Make an Immediate Impact
Rookies are tough to project. Many need time to adapt to the speed and technique of the NFL, whereas others hit the ground running and produce right away. Starting with the QBs, everyone is going to be talking about the 6 guys who got selected in the first 12 picks. Three of them aren’t worth noting here, but the other three are likely to see significant action. The first pick, Caleb Williams, is in a prime situation in Chicago. I’m not sure a #1 overall pick at QB has ever gone into his rookie season with this much talent around him. He could take Chicago to the playoffs in year 1.
Picked second, Jayden Daniels is expected to start for Washington, and the team has high hopes. Simply taking care of the ball and making a few explosive plays will help his cause with the fanbase. I have to skip Drake Maye, the 3rd pick, as he has not looked good in camp and may not make many starts. Bo Nix, the apple of Denver coach Sean Payton’s eye, is in a 3-way “battle” with Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham. If the most pro-ready QB in the draft can’t beat those two, the Broncos have a problem. I personally think that Nix will start week 1 and should look the most polished among the rookie QBs.
You’ll notice many 1st-rounders here because earlier picks more likely to start at most positions. One position where that’s not true is RB. My only notable rookie running back is Bills 4th-rounder Ray Davis. I liked him a lot at Kentucky, and he can be the thunder to James Cook’s lightning. The latter isn’t built to be a workhorse anyway. We have a TON of WRs to discuss, starting with the 4th and 6th picks, Arizona’s Marvin Harrison Jr and the Giants’ Malik Nabers, respectively. Both of them (especially Harrison) are immediate #1 WRs for teams that desperately need that type of player.
As much as I like Rome Odunze, the 9th pick of the Bears isn’t expected to shine right away. The presence of Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, two #1 WRs themselves, will limit Odunze’s opportunities. Three guys taken a little later will have much more volume. First-rounder Xavier Worthy, the fastest man in Combine history, gets Patrick Mahomes as his QB with the Chiefs, who had the league’s worst WRs last year. Buffalo’s Keon Coleman can’t replace Stefon Diggs AND Gabe Davis, but he can substitute for one. The Chargers need 2nd-rounder Ladd McConkey to replace Allen and Mike Williams, and he too can fill one of the voids.
Only one TE is worth talking about: Brock Bowers. The Raiders didn’t actually need him, but he fell into their laps. The Georgia product is a size/speed mismatch who also blocks well. He’ll be an asset for whoever starts at QB. Three first-round linemen found good spots to impact their teams. Tennessee’s JC Latham and Pittsburgh’s Troy Fautanu both joined teams that were completely starved of o-line talent. Each will man a key tackle spot for their pro teams. Taliese Fuaga of the Saints is a godsend for a team that may permanently lose Ryan Ramczyk but still wants to win right now.
On the defensive side of the ball, I’m bullish on new Colts DE Laiatu Latu. He’s such a polished edge rusher, and he’ll benefit from DeForest Buckner’s presence on the inside. The player with the most upside is Minnesota’s Dallas Turner. I think he’s just scratching the surface of his talent and can become a superstar under the tutelage of DC Brian Flores. Inside, keep an eye on Rams’ 2nd-rounder Braden Fiske. He is tasked with helping replace the great Aaron Donald. Nobody will confuse the two athletically, but Fiske is a skilled interior rusher with a relentless motor. At the very least, the fans should love him.
At the second level, the Chargers’ Junior Colson found himself in a great situation. Jim Harbaugh, his college coach, chose him and will coach him at the pro level. Best against the run, he fits exactly what this porous defense needs most. In the secondary, I’m curious to see how Cole Bishop works out for Buffalo. He was good in college but tested much better than expected. Now without Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde, the Bills need new contributors to step up. Bishop is a sufficiently polished player to step in immediately, which tells me that the team has a lot of confidence in him.
The CB position was loaded this year. Four players drafted in consecutive rounds by 2 teams can make a major difference. The Eagles selected Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in succession. Mitchell has elite traits and ball skills, while DeJean is more athletic than he’s given credit for and has incredible instincts. Detroit spent back-to-back picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. Both players have been knocked (Arnold for speed and Rakestraw for sized), but each is a tactician on the field who has a feel for the position. As contenders, Detroit needed players who could contribute now, and they got a pair.
Among special teamers, no kickers really stood out to me. One punter was drafted, and he is definitely noteworthy. Tory Taylor of Iowa is now a Bear, and he has practiced a LOT for this role. Seriously; the Hawkeyes could not score, so he saw plenty of action. The guy definitely has a strong and accurate leg, and we at Takeaways understand and appreciate the value of excellent field position. For returners, see my article on that very subject right here, with a particular focus on the Chiefs’ Xavier Worthy and Indy’s Anthony Gould, who should both be the primary returners for their teams.
Race for the #1 Overall Draft Pick
A couple of teams have looked downright atrocious each of the past two years. That made it easier to try and guess who would pick first. This time around, there are five different teams that could reasonably secure the #1 draft pick. We’ll go through each of them before determining a “winner”. Carolina picked first last year, and you could argue that they aren’t much better now. David Tepper is still the owner, and Dave Canales might not be a better coach than Frank Reich. Unless QB Bryce Young improves considerably, this team won’t win many games. However, they might steal a win or two in the NFC South.
Washington was bad enough to pick second last year. DEs Chase Young and Montez Sweat are gone, and Ron Rivera has been replaced as coach by Dan Quinn, who may be an upgrade. Your opinion about this team though depends on your view of rookie QB Jayden Daniels. I don’t believe he can do enough to carry the rest of the roster. New England would be the clear favorite here, as this offense is putrid, and Bill Belichick isn’t around to help the defense overachieve. However, as mentioned above, Jacoby Brissett may start ahead of Drake Maye for a while, and he’s competent enough to earn a few extra wins.
Last year, I had Arizona as my favorite for the first pick. They overachieved and selected 4th, but I still don’t think they’re very good. Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr is going to be a star, and you can do (a little) worse than Kyler Murray at QB. The defense is a sieve though, and the offensive line is still undermanned. The wild card here is the New York Giants. QB Daniel Jones is coming off an ACL tear, and he isn’t great when healthy, but he didn’t have WR Malik Nabers before. He does now. OLB Brian Burns boosts the defense, and they share a division with Washington. This team could exceed expectations.
Having said all of that, I’m taking the New England Patriots as my projected #1 draft slot holders. Brissett won’t have enough around him to do too well, and you have to think that the team will be itching to get Maye on the field. Drafting a QB at #3 comes with expectations, and the Pats will want Maye to learn on the job to make use of an otherwise lost season. The AFC East is also brutal, with three other playoff contenders. Those divisional matchups might be six losses right there. Things have changed since the Tom Brady days, but a highly valuable draft pick might be the reward for the team’s struggles.