Divisional Round Takeaways for the 2024 NFL Season
The NFL playoffs got underway last week, and in this round, we had the last 8 battling. Our two 1-seeds finally joined the party, with Kansas City and Detroit playing their first games of the postseason. Neither had a simple game, but only one of them managed to win. Two themes defined this round: weather and officiating. Two of the games were practically decided by those factors. Regardless, we’re down to just 4 teams now. Keep reading to see who moved on to the conference title games in my divisional round takeaways! The games are sorted based on when they occurred (earliest first), separated by conference.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs 23, (4) Houston Texans 14
The threepeat quest continues! We began the game with a bang, as KR Nikko Remigio took the opening kick 63 yards. He nearly lost a fumble, but his teammate recovered AND Houston was called for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. The Chiefs started at the Texans’ 13, but the Houston defense held them to a 3-and-out for a field goal. It was a great stand, and Houston quickly countered with an FG of their own due to the ground game. RB Joe Mixon (18/88/1) and QB CJ Stroud (6/42) keyed a 149-yard day on the ground, while the Chiefs had just 50 total rushing yards, with 44 of them (and a TD) coming from RB Kareen Hunt.
KC’s second drive should’ve ended in a punt, but DE Will Anderson Jr was called for a false roughing the passer foul. The penalty was for a hit to the head, but Anderson hit QB Patrick Mahomes in the chest. Once again though, the defense stood tall and allowed just a field goal. Honestly, the Houston defense played plenty well to win, with 3 sacks (2 by Anderson) and 2.3 YPC allowed. Four issues haunted the Texans though, and two of them were expected. We knew Houston was missing WRs, which was especially prescient given that this was a rematch of the game in which Tank Dell got injured.
The second problem was Houston’s offensive line. We’ve been harping on it all year, and it may have turned in its worst pass-blocking performance of the season. Stroud (19/28, 245 yards) did his best, but he had no time in the pocket and got sacked 8 times. DE George Karlaftis had 3 of them, and DT Chris Jones (1 sack) was his usual unblockable self. Even with double teams, no lineman other than LT Laremy Tunsil could hold. On the 8th and final sack, Stroud limped off in pain. He seems alright, but it was a fitting end to a season in which the second-year star took a massive beating.
The third issue was special teams. In addition to the big kick return, K Kaimi Fairbairn had a miserable day. He missed horribly on a 55-yard FG attempt, and KC went right down the subsequent short field for a TD. When Houston opened the 3rd quarter with a magnificent 15-play, 10-minute drive to score a touchdown, Fairbairn missed the tying PAT. Finally, needing a score to have any hopes of a miracle comeback late, Fairbairn had a 35-yard attempt blocked by LB Leo Chenal, the same man who blocked Denver’s game-winning kick attempt back in week 10. Special teams was a huge advantage for the Chiefs.
Finally, we had the officiating. Kansas City usually gets calls to go their way, but two in this game were ridiculous. First was Anderson’s roughing call. After Houston’s long drive, the second whiff came on KC’s answer. Their 7:44 TD drive only happened because LB Henry To’o To’o was called for roughing on a sliding Mahomes. However, Mahomes slid late, was not hit in the head, and seemed to actively be baiting the foul. We need these calls to be reviewable. Anderson complained about playing 11 on 12, and he was absolutely right. The penalty disparity (82 yards vs. 29 yards) pretty much tells the story of this game.
To the Chiefs’ credit though, they scored points on each of their second chances. In the second case, Mahomes (16/25, 177 yards, TD) hit TE Travis Kelce on an amazing 11-yard TD while falling to the ground. Kelce (7/117/1) had another playoff resurgence and basically had all of KC’s offense (with a season-long 49-yard catch-and-run to boot), with Xavier Worthy (5/45) being the only WR to touch the ball. The defense still deserves the bulk of the accolades. DC Steve Spagnuolo called perfect blitzes, the rush got home, and having CB Jaylen Watson back helped immensely on the back end.
One oddity was a last-second safety that KC took on purpose to burn a few more seconds of block and avoid any sort of blocked punt. Hilariously, the Chiefs were -9.5 favorites, and the safety changed the margin of victory to 9. I doubt anyone at Arrowhead really cared. Mahomes is now 7-0 in the divisional round with 0 turnovers, and his team is heading back to the conference championship game (still at home). We’re in for a treat in what should be another Bills-Chiefs classic next week in Kansas City. Houston can reach their first conference title game someday, but the offensive line must be fixed first.
(2) Buffalo Bills 27, (3) Baltimore Ravens 25
In another rematch of a regular-season game, we got a different result. This game pitted two MVP candidates: Buffalo QB Josh Allen and Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson, and their offenses were the two best in the red zone all season. Buffalo finished the year undefeated at home, and part of the reason for that is the weather: this was the coldest game of Jackson’s career, and the Ravens play outdoors themselves. Jackson had another disadvantage: WR1 Zay Flowers remained out with a knee injury. Nevertheless, the Ravens marched right down the field on the opening drive, while the Bills responded in kind.
That’s when things got interesting. Jackson fired a wild INT to S Taylor Rapp (who unfortunately left on a cart with a hip injury a bit later), but Buffalo’s ensuing possession was killed by the officials. A bad holding call on LT Dion Dawkins set the Bills back, while somehow no flag was thrown after a later play when a Raven shoved TE Dalton Kincaid to the ground (I bet Houston would’ve been flagged!). Jackson lost another possession when S Damar Hamlin came in and strip sacked him, with Jackson showing poor ball security. Buffalo took that turnover for a TD on a short field and scored again on their next drive as well.
The second of those two scores put the Bills up 21-10 at halftime, but they couldn’t add to the lead and went 3-and-out to start the 3rd quarter. Baltimore had adjusted at the half, and they made their charge. RB Justice Hill (6/50) gashed Buffalo and seems to always be a problem for them. Star RB Derrick Henry (16/84/1), who had been bottled up by a concerted Buffalo effort in the first half, broke free and scored on what was almost a one-man drive, giving the Ravens 9 unanswered points in the quarter. Jackson threw incomplete on the following 2-point attempt, making me wonder why Henry didn’t get the ball.
Bills K Tyler Bass extended the lead with a 51-yard FG in the frigid atmosphere, and he tacked on 3 more points after Ravens TE Mark Andrews (5/61) had an uncharacteristic fumble (his second ever and first since 2019. LB Terrell Bernard punched the ball out and recovered it; it’s no coincidence that this defense did better with him and Matt Milano active. Neither played in the first meeting. That second FG by Buffalo was interesting; Baltimore’s #1 rushing defense stopped Allen on a QB draw to force 4th and goal from the 2, and HC Sean McDermott (probably correctly) opted to kick, so the game remained a 1-score affair.
Baltimore got one more chance, and their offensive line starred on the drive. The Ravens converted their 7th third-down conversion of the game on their way to the end zone, with TE Isaiah Likely (4/73/1) scoring. Jackson (18/25, 254 yards, 2 TDs, INT) did his best to atone for his earlier errors, but Andrews couldn’t make amends for his. He actually made things worse by dropping the tying 2-point conversion, his second huge drop of the game. The Ravens oddly finished 1/5 on 2-point tries this year, which no doubt stems from getting too cute and not handing Henry the ball. Rasul Douglas snagged the onside kick, and that was that.
I doubt Baltimore is going to get past this one too quickly. Despite all of their mistakes, they had numerous chances to steal this game and couldn’t. Jackson will draw more fire for another playoff shortcoming, but he was far from the biggest problem this time. Buffalo squeaked away, but that won’t cut it against Kansas City next week. Allen (16/22, 127 yards; 10/20/2) excelled in the short game and as a runner, but he took few deep shots and only got one WR (Khalil Shakir; 6/67) involved. RB James Cook (17/67) helped carry the load, and I think more playmakers will need to produce if Buffalo is to knock off the defending champs.
NFC
(6) Washington Commanders 45, (1) Detroit Lions 31
I’ll give Washington their due in a bit, but this game was far about what Detroit did and didn’t do. The only 15-win team to lose their playoff opener other than the 2011 Packers, Detroit had flaws on both offense and defense in this game. However, the defense was by far the bigger culprit. DC Aaron Glenn may have wrecked his HC candidacy in one night, though I wouldn’t pin most of the blame on him. This defense simply suffered too many injuries, and the week 18 domination of Minnesota was a mirage. What do you really expect without DE Aidan Hutchinson, CB Carlton Davis, DT Alim McNeill, and others?
The results were promising for one drive, with a Marcus Mariota trick play on 4th down stuffed to force a turnover on downs. After that though, Washington punted just 1 time and racked up 481 yards of offense. Part of the issue was yet another injury, with CB Amik Robertson suffering a broken arm. He might’ve been the guy to cover either WR Terry McLaurin (4/87/1) or WR Dyami Brown (6/98), both of whom feasted in his absence. The run defense fared no better, with RBs Brian Robinson Jr (15/77/2) and Austin Ekeler (6/47; 4/41 receiving) and QB Jayden Daniels (16/51) all breaking off big games.
I can’t let Detroit’s offense off the hook despite scoring 31 points. First, the good: RB David Montgomery (7/28) returned from injury and had a relatively light workload, though he did have a nice play where QB Jared Goff lateraled to him, and he shoveled the ball to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (8/137/1) for a 20-yard gain. St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta (6/51/1 with a great 1-handed TD catch), and RB Jahymr Gibbs (14/105/2; 6/70 receiving) all played like the stars that they are. WR Jameson Williams caught a 19-yard pass and took a reverse for a 61-yard TD. The Lions had 521 yards of offense overall, and again, they scored enough points.
Unfortunately, all of that was offset by turnovers. Goff lost a red zone strip sack (forced by DE Dorance Armstrong, who had both of Washington’s sacks in this game), after which the Commanders earned a TD. A bit later, Goff threw a pick six on an overthrow to S Quan Martin. It should be noted however that LB Frankie Luvu clocked Goff in the helmet on the return, which should’ve erased the TD if not the INT. Goff actually missed the next series while being checked for an injury, and Teddy Bridgewater came in. Yes, the one coaching high school football. His drive ended with Williams’ reverse TD.
Goff (23/40, 313 yards, TD, 3 INTs, FUM) threw 2 more INTs on the night. His last one, though a desperation heave, was a fitting end to the game. Even Williams added a pick on a trick play. Simply put, you can’t commit 5 turnovers in a playoff game and expect to win it. Despite all of that, I can still say that the defense cost Detroit the game. They only got off the field twice, couldn’t tackle, and even handed Washington a 4th-down conversion by committing a 12-men-on-defense penalty. We can shift to the Commanders on that note, because 4th downs were a defining characteristic of this game given both teams’ tendencies.
We’re used to Detroit going on 4th down. In fact, they went 2/2 here. Washington’s 3/4 line came on bigger plays, as they eschewed FGs to go and score TDs. Credit coach Dan Quinn for being aggressive: you aren’t going to beat the Lions with field goals. Washington earned their points with sustained drives and big plays, such as McLaurin taking a WR screen for a 58-yard TD. Daniels (22/31, 299 yards, 2 TDs) always seemed to keep the Commanders ahead of the sticks with good decisions and well-time scampers. His poise remains remarkable, and the team is in the conference championship because of it.
This was an agonizing way for Detroit’s season to end, even if it was inevitable. Goff had a bad game at a poor time, but the defense injuries really wrecked this campaign. Luckily, the Lions have their core intact and can try again next year. Washington shouldn’t be here. They were 4-13 last year and went through ownership, coaching, and QB changes. Yet those changes are exactly why they’ve had such an incredible turnaround. They’ve now won 7 straight games, and the only blemish from this one was a torn ACL for G Sam Cosmi. The Commanders will be underdogs again at Philadelphia. Ask them and see if they care.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles 28, (4) Los Angeles Rams 22
Our third regular-season rematch, this game probably wasn’t forgotten by the Rams. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley exploded on them last time for 255 yards and 2 long TDs, so the game plan was to neutralize his threat. Thus, it was QB Jalen Hurts who broke a long TD to start the game, sprinting for a 44-yard opening strike. Barkley took a big hit on the play, a read-option look for Hurts, showing how dedicated LA was to shutting him down. Notably, K Jake Elliott missed the PAT on the score. Snow flurries might have affected the operation. That wasn’t a great sign, as the weather only got worse from that point on.
The Rams responded with a TD drive of their own. HC Sean McVay kept the drive going with a successful challenge on a catch by TE Tyler Higbee (7/54/1), who paid the drive off with the scoring grab. We even saw an extremely rare Matthew Stafford run on the possession! A couple of punts later, the Rams’ defensive dam broke. Barkley, who had been mostly shut down, busted a 62-yard TD. LA replied with an FG, while the Eagles lost a corner. Great rookie Quinyon Mitchell left the game with a shoulder injury and did not return. His replacement, Isaiah Rodgers, got mossed by WR Demarcus Robinson (3/74) but was otherwise solid.
LA lost a key rookie defender of their own, as DT Braden Fisk left with a knee injury. He never came back either but contributed a sack before his departure. Sacks were the main feature of the Rams defense. After tallying 9 against Minnesota, they took Hurts down 7 times in this game. Rookie DE Jared Verse, who angered Eagles fans with his midweek comments, had 2 of them. One of his and one by LB Omar Speights knocked Philly out of FG range on 2 consecutive drives before the half. Verse ended the half with his second takedown. However, it was a non-sack that had a chance to really impact the game.
Hurts injured his knee on a run for loss late in the third quarter but missed no snaps. The halftime score of 13-10 Eagles remained at that point, and it was unknown how mobile the QB would be. On the next Eagles drive, Hurts took a sack for a safety because he couldn’t get out of the way. Philadelphia got a lift from their home-field advantage: the now-blizzard conditions blasted LA. Nobody could hold onto the football for the Rams. One drive ended after Higbee and WR Puka Nacua (6/97) dropped two passes within 3 plays. On the next possession, RB Kyren Williams (19/106) fumbled and saw the ball returned to the 10.
LA’s defense stood strong though; Philly tried a tush push on 4th and goal but false started, and they settled for a field goal after clearing the snow for Elliott. Still, things got worse when Stafford was strip sacked by OLB Nolan Smith. LB Zack Baun, a newly minted All-Pro, had a PBU, a TFL, and the fumble recovery on the drive. I guess the Wisconsin boy can handle cold weather. Elliott added another FG, and Barkley (26/205/2; 4/27 receiving) added another homerun on a 78-yard TD dash. He killed the Rams yet again. Crucially, Elliott missed another PAT after the score. Somehow, he went 3/3 on FGs but 1/3 on PATs.
It was a bit late, but LA discovered that a hurry-up offense could make Philly vulnerable. Stafford (26/44, 324 yards, 2 TDs) led a 10-play TD drive in under 2 minutes and got another opportunity after the defense forced a 3-and-out. Nacua brought them to the red zone with an insane catch, but DT Jalen Carter sacked Stafford on a busted protection, setting up 4th and 11. The Eagles had 5 sacks of their own, and Carter nabbed 2 of them. Stafford’s subsequent pass sailed out of bounds, and the Eagles survived. A TD would’ve won the game, as Philly was up just 6 due to their PAT misses.
This game was honestly a bit of a travesty. I firmly believe that owners should have to install roofs in their stadiums to host playoff games. Snow is a part of the game, but it really shouldn’t be in 2025. Southern teams can’t earn that advantage, nor can northern teams with newer stadiums. The freezing weather also presents fan safety concerns. I have no doubt that the Rams would’ve won in less severe weather, regardless of the location. They played their hearts out but were just at an unfair advantage. With an entire city on their back due to the ongoing wildfires, this was a sad way to see the Rams’ season end.
What’s done is done though, and Philly is a deserving winner in spite of what I just stated. Barkley killed the Rams once again, and Hurts (15/20, 128 yards; 7/70/1 rushing) hurt them on the ground as well. DC Vic Fangio had his #1 defense ready, and they shined brightest when the sky was at its darkest. I also want to credit holder Braden Mann. He had quite the difficult job in these conditions and did it flawlessly. Neither PAT miss was on him. Moving forward, the Eagles need more from the passing game. They should have an easier time with that against Washington’s suspect secondary in their all-NFC-East championship battle.