Conference Championship Takeaways for the 2025 NFL Season
Coming off last week’s divisional round action, two Super Bowl berths were for the taking. Following two Sunday matchups, we’ve got our big game participants. (2) New England barely survived Denver despite a blizzard and the Broncos starting a backup QB. (1) Seattle outlasted the (5) Rams in a classic matchup that might just mean that the Lombardi trophy is headed to the northwest. We now get a rematch of the 2015 Super Bowl, and if this year’s edition is anything like that one, we’re in for a treat. If you want to see how this week’s games played out in my conference championship takeaways, continue reading!
AFC
(2) New England Patriots 10, (1) Denver Broncos 7
That was just about the ugliest football game I’ve ever seen. I’m only slightly exaggerating here. We had the luckiest team in NFL history (NE) against a team that just lost their rising star QB to an ankle injury (DEN). Denver got to host this game, but they had to start backup Jarrett Stidham, coincidentally a former 4th-round pick of the Patriots. Coach Sean Payton and other players professed confidence in “Stiddy“, but that was misguided. Stidham was jittery on his first few throws, including one where his coach ran the ball twice and made him drop back on 3rd-and-long. Predictably, Stidham ran for his life and threw incomplete.
A beautiful 52-yard deep ball to WR Marvin Mims (4/62) settled him down, as did a TD to WR Courtland Sutton (3/17/1) two plays later. The rest of the Denver offense was a train wreck. On their next drive, Sutton dropped a 3rd-down pass, adding to the Broncos’ league lead in drops by pass catchers. Sutton wasn’t the only one: most of Stidham’s receivers failed to help him out. The running game (79 yards at 3.3 YPC) struggled too as a result of the one-dimensional attack. Their only saving grace was that New England’s offense was even worse. QB Drake Maye nearly threw an INT on his first pass and looked nothing like an MVP.
Two first-half decisions ruined Denver’s day. First, on their second and final quality drive of the afternoon, they made it to 4th-and-1 at the NE 14. Knowing points would be at a premium, kicking a field goal might’ve been the optimal decision. If you had to go for it though, run the ball. Payton chose to let Stidham throw, and he nearly got picked off. On the very next drive, Stidham drifted back 19 yards under pressure. He didn’t throw the ball away until it was too late, and when he finally did, it was a backwards pass. Pats LB Elijah Ponder recovered it but did not earn a TD because replay had to create the turnover.
Patriots fans were angered by the initial call of an incomplete pass, but they got possession at the DEN 12 and scored 2 plays later on a Maye run. Before the half, Broncos K Wil Lutz missed a 54-yard FG, but Patriots K Andres Borregales couldn’t connect from 63 yards out to make them pay. The third quarter completely changed the tenor of the game, as snow flurries began to arrive. Within minutes, it became a full-on blizzard, blanketing the field in snow and creating major gusts. New England smartly turned to the run game with RB Rhamondre Stevenson (25/71) and Maye himself, eating 9:31 of clock over 16 plays.
It was this drive that damaged Denver’s prospects. On 4th-and-1 at the Broncos’ 8, Maye ran a tush push with two DTs behind him, but Denver snuffed it out. However, the refs gave them a first down, and Denver’s challenge failed even though the skycam showed clear evidence that Maye was short. The Broncos’ defense held NE to a field goal, but that made the score 10-7. Looking at the final score, you can see that the officials handed New England the decisive points. NE almost scored again following a flea flicker, but Borregales missed a 46-yard FG. The conditions were favorable in one direction, which NE had in the 3rd quarter.
Once the quarter changed to the 4th, Denver got the advantage, but they couldn’t seize it. The Broncos punted twice before finally starting a drive at the NE 33 due to a wind-affected punt. They moved the ball just 5 yards, and Lutz’s 45-yard FG got blocked by DT Leonard Taylor. These teams have similar special teams: great gunners, normally reliable kickers, and elite returners. That one small play had a massive impact. On a last-ditch effort, Stidham (17/31, 133 yards, TD, INT, FUM; 4/23 rushing) threw a duck of an INT to CB Christian Gonzalez. Bo Nix would’ve won this game, but Stidham had a tough hand given the conditions.
Maye (10/21, 86 yards; 10/65/1 rushing) ran a bootleg on 3rd-and-5 to seal the win, but he wasn’t good. For the second straight game, an opponent crumbled in front of him. This time, they also somehow had road field advantage. I know I just complained about it last week, but teams with outdoor stadiums should lose their right to host playoff games in severe weather. This was no way to decide a Super Bowl berth. Still, I must congratulate HC Mike Vrabel. His work has been phenomenal, and his team is always prepared. Denver now faces an excruciating case of “what if”, as their defense was Super Bowl-quality. If only Nix played.
NFC
(1) Seattle Seahawks 31, (5) Los Angeles Rams 27
Welcome to the Super Bowl! Given my clear lack of respect for New England’s capabilities, I viewed this game as the true Super Bowl. And boy did it deliver! It was a rematch of a week 16 thriller, but the Rams didn’t have WR Davante Adams that way. Still, 3rd matchups between divisional opponents who had a season split are always entertaining. That’s especially true when the #1 scoring offense (LAR) faces the #1 scoring defense (SEA). Usually, the defense wins those games in the postseason. That held true here, but make no mistake: this was an offensive show. Seattle was the team that started the fireworks, and it was impressive.
Trade acquisition Rashid Shaheed blew by CB Darious Williams for a 51-yard deep shot on the Seahawks’ first possession. Near the goal line, RB Kenneth Walker III (19/62/1; 4/49 receiving) juked 3 unblocked Rams for a TD. MVP favorite Matthew Stafford tried answering back with a 44-yard bomb to WR Puka Nacua (9/165/1), but the drive stalled for a 44-yard FG. Seattle added an FG after a holding penalty, while LA got a second FG after a DeMarcus Lawrence sack killed their drive. Lawrence committed an uncalled face mask on the sack, but LA got karma when PR Xavier Smith recovered his own muff on Seattle’s next possession.
RBs Kyren Williams (10/39; 2/22/1 receiving) and Blake Corum (9/55; 3/24 receiving) spurred the Rams’ running game in the second quarter, and Williams’ receiving score gave LA the lead. A few drives later, with just 54 seconds remaining in the half, Seattle tried to regain their edge. QB Sam Darnold ripped apart the Rams’ defense and hit WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10/153/1) for an open TD in 34 seconds. JSN was constantly open, and Darnold kept trusting him. The combo paid off handsomely. It was that same combination that helped Seattle win in week 16, which is the game that got them the #1 seed in the first place.
The Rams had a great start to the 3rd quarter by sacking Darnold, but special teams reared their ugly head again. Smith didn’t get so lucky with his second muff, and Seahawks WR Jake Bobo had a 17-yard TD one play later. Stafford didn’t fool around and led a quick 4-play, 75-yard TD drive that heavily featured Adams (4/89/1), who red-zone prowess struck again. Darnold then hit on his 3rd TD of the night, this time to WR Cooper Kupp (4/36/1), the former Ram. The veteran didn’t fit LA anymore, but he has been incredibly helpful to JSN, making any actual on-field contribution a bonus. Seattle stopped LA on the next drive…until they didn’t.
CB Riq Woolen broke up a pass (though dropped the INT) on 3rd-and-12 to force a punt. After the play though, he taunted and extended the Rams’ drive. Had he caught the INT, the penalty would’ve been enforced after the change of possession. Adding to his poor sequence, Woolen got burned by Nacua on a 34-yard TD the very next play. Aside from the Seahawks’ opening punt (which they maintained possession on), the 4 other 3rd-quarter drives all went for TDs. A 9-yard sack by Rams S Kamren Kinchens on a busted protection finally broke the streak to start the 4th quarter, but Stafford continued his great play.
He sliced up Seattle’s great secondary because his line played great and gave him time to throw. However, a 3rd-and-1 drop by TE Colby Parkinson (3/62), which might’ve gone for a TD, brought up 4th down at the SEA 26. Then the unthinkable happened: Stafford RAN for a first down. Stafford (22/35, 374 yards, 3 TDs; 2/16 rushing) even bowled over a defender to move the chains. It was all for naught though, as a 4th-and-4 miss from the Seattle 6 ended the 84-yard, 7:24 drive without points. I’d have gone for 2 after Nacua’s TD. Had they done so and converted, they could’ve tied the game with an FG here. But I suppose hindsight is 20/20.
The drive ate so much clock that just 4:54 remained. That was plenty of time to get a stop, but the Seahawks didn’t cooperate. They held the ball for 11 plays and 4:29, utilizing a surprising amount of throws to move the sticks. Seattle’s run game wasn’t clicking in the second half, but the play selection still showed the team’s trust in Darnold (25/36, 346 yards, 3 TDs). The much-criticized QB answered the call, putting up his best game of the season and converting passes under pressure in the biggest moments. His final drive left LA with no meaningful time (25 seconds and no timeouts), and the Rams couldn’t make a miracle.
This wasn’t how the Rams wanted their season to end, and the offensive stars bear no blame. They played incredibly, especially against this defense. LA’s defense crumbled, and special teams (their Achilles heel) doomed them once and for all. On the other side, Seattle basically won the Super Bowl. I would favor them HEAVILY against New England in Santa Clara. No offense has succeeded against them like the Rams’, so consider these matchups a reflection of their scoring might. In addition to the great defense, Darnold has exorcised his big-game demons and can pile on points. The former castoff is one easy win from glory.