Divisional Round Takeaways for the 2025 NFL Season
The NFL playoffs got underway last week, and in this round, we had the last 8 battling. Our two 1-seeds finally joined the party, with Denver and Seattle playing their first games of the postseason. Both one, but the Seahawks had a much easier time. All four games took place in outdoor stadiums, and two of them came close to affecting the outcomes. Regardless, we’re down to just 4 teams now, with 3 of the 4 home teams claiming victory. Keep reading to see who moved on to the conference title games in my divisional round takeaways! The games are sorted based on when they occurred (earliest first), separated by conference.
AFC
(1) Denver Broncos 33, (6) Buffalo Bills 30 (OT)
These two teams put up quite a few points given how bare their cupboards were at receiver. Buffalo’s Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis both tore their ACLs last week, while Denver lost both Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant within the first two quarters of this game. The Broncos had to go with guys like WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey (2/33/1) RB RJ Harvey (6/20; 5/46 receiving) out of the backfield, and it hurt them on the opening drive. Harvey lost a fumble but got bailed out by a Buffalo offside penalty, while Humphrey dropped a perfectly thrown TD pass and led to a field goal. It was a nice 7-minute trek, but the ending underwhelmed.
Buffalo took the lead as a result, and they ate over 7 minutes of clock too. Despite facing a good Denver defense, the Bills ran the ball very well. That was especially true of RB James Cook (24/117; 2/24 receiving), who gashed the Broncos for multiple big gains. However, just as Buffalo was about to assert control over the game, Cook fumbled in FG range on a great hit by LB Alex Singleton. Denver and QB Bo Nix seized all of the momentum, finding backup OT Frank Crum for a TD and then hitting Humphrey before the half with a redemption score. Buffalo managed an FG in between those scores, but what they did after them hurt the most.
For reasons I cannot explain, Bills QB Josh Allen, with just 16 seconds and no timeouts left, ran the ball and tossed it backward to nobody in particular. The Broncos scooped it up with 2 seconds left and added a 50-yard Wil Lutz FG. It was nice to see Denver start faster for once in this game, but they got help from some incredible stupidity. Denver’s defense continued to cook in the second half, with edge rusher Nik Bonitto (2 FF) strip sacking Allen. His team recovered that one as well, leading to an FG. Trailing 23-10, Allen became Superman to get his squad back in the game. Of course, they also abused the tush push as the new Eagles.
Allen found WR Keon Coleman for a rare TD by him, and then rookie DT Deone Walker picked off Nix at point-blank range. While Allen threw an INT to PJ Locke on what was essentially an arm punt right after, Denver curiously eschewed a 58-yard FG attempt in the thin air and punted. Buffalo took the lead on 17 unanswered points, with TE Dalton Kincaid (6/83/1) and WR Khalil Shakir (7/75) leading the way. Still, the 4th quarter is Broncos offense time. Nix calmly led a TD drive and finished it with a 27-yard strike to WR Marvin Mims (8/93/1). It was a great call that targeted CB Dane Jackson, who subbed for an injured Tre’Davious White.
The Bills tied the game on a drive that got extended by a hook-and-ladder play. It’s a nifty concept, but Buffalo runs it enough that teams should be more prepared for it. K Matt Prater, a former Bronco, kicked a 50-yard FG right down the middle and forced OT. It was actually a Bills game against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round a few years ago that led to the current OT rules. Buffalo won the toss and smartly played defense. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (4/53) was instrumental late in the game, but two drops on Denver’s first OT drive (including one on 3rd-and-11) were unfortunate. It felt like Allen would will his way to a win.
Things weren’t that simple. On a deep throw to WR Brandin Cooks (2/20), CB Ja’Quan McMillian stole the ball from his hands for an INT, returning the ball to Denver. Allen (25/39, 283 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; 12/66 rushing, 2 FUM lost) never saw the ball again. That’s because his defense imploded. CB Taron Johnson committed PI on a deep shot. It was a bit of a tight call, but DE Joey Bosa committed roughing the passer anyway. White then had a much clearer PI while covering Mims on yet another deep shot, and that made things easy. Lutz easily handled the 24-yard GW FG. Denver’s late-game magic succeeded yet again.
Curiously, Allen is now 0-7 in OT games. That’s obviously not all his fault, but he shoulders some blame on this one. Without Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, this was Buffalo’s year. Alas, they came up short, as they faced a different Denver team than the one they smoked last year. For the Broncos, HC Sean Payton did a brilliant job calling plays. He’ll have to be legendary next week though. On what I believe was this play, Nix (26/46, 279 yards, 3 TDs, INT; 12/29 rushing) broke his ankle and is done for the season. The young QB was really hitting his stride. Jarrett Stidham will start going forward, which really hurts Denver’s chances.
(2) New England Patriots 28, (5) Houston Texans 16
Without WR Nico Collins (concussion) and RT Trent Brown (ankle), it was always going to be tough for Houston to score points. A Christian Kirk (2/20/1) drop on the first drive didn’t help either. Nor did TE Dalton Schultz (2/47) leaving early with a concerning calf injury. You can even blame the cold, rainy, and snowy mix that was the Patriots’ stadium. On that topic, I don’t believe those are acceptable conditions for football. Teams should be required to build domed stadiums to be eligible to host playoff games if they are susceptible to severe weather. The NFL professes player safety and fan experience. This would be a chance to prove it.
None of that matters because of what Texans QB CJ Stroud did in this game. After his poor performance last week, most of us predicted a bounce-back game. If anything, this was even worse. Under constant pressure, he missed passes every which way, looking completely rattled. He threw 4 INTs, all in the first half. On one, he badly overthrew an open Kirk. INT #2 was pitiful, as he lobbed a duck of a pass under pressure. It was begging to get picked. The third wasn’t his fault, as the ball bounced off the hands of WR Xavier Hutchinson (4/44). The last one was a poor decision but a fantastic catch by CB Carlton Davis (2 INTs, 3 PI fouls).
To be fair, the running game provided no help. RBs Woody Marks (14/17, FUM; 2/19 receiving) and Nick Chubb (4/14) had pitiful games behind the poor line. Only WR Jayden Higgins (6/59) provided any meaningful help. Still, Stroud looked worse than I’ve ever seen him play. I personally would’ve put Davis Mills in the game after the 4th pick. HC DeMeco Ryans never pulled that lever. Aside from one TD off a turnover, Houston never reached the end zone. An illegal shift took an early TD off the board, K Ka’imi Fairbairn made a 51-yard FG (which was tough in this environment), and the Texans scored one other FG. That’s it.
New England wasn’t great on offense either, but they made a few key plays. A 4th-down TD to WR Demario Douglas (2/36/1) on a pinpoint Drake Maye throw was a great way to finish their first drive. WR Stefon Diggs (4/40/1) made a tough catch in the end zone against the team he played for last year. Fellow receiver Kayshon Boutte (3/75/1) made a fantastic 1-handed TD grab on an overthrown deep ball, and his score really put the game out of reach. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (16/70) was the most consistent producer and the man the Patriots turned to when they needed to run out the clock. Houston’s defense made the job hard.
As poorly as the Texans’ offense performed, the defense kept the team in the game until the very end. Maye (16/27, 179 yards, 3 TDs, INT, 4 FUM, 2 lost) had a rather poor game thanks to Houston’s front 4. He fumbled 4 times and was lucky to only lose two. DE Will Anderson Jr (3 sacks) strip sacked him twice, and Danielle Hunter added Houston’s other two sacks. DT Tommy Togiai (8 tackles) had a great punch-out as well. Off 5 Houston turnovers, New England scored just 7 points on a pick six. Whenever the Texans’ defense got on the field after a turnover, no matter the location, they held the Patriots scoreless. They deserved better.
The slippery ball saved New England from a couple more turnovers. Otherwise, Houston would’ve recovered two other fumbles. On the other side, I have to credit New England’s defensive standouts, even if think most of this came down to a Texans implosion. In addition to Davis CB Marcus Jones had the aforementioned pick six, while rookie S Craig Woodson had an INT and a fumble recovery. New England is an incredibly well-coached team, and they allowed Houston to beat themselves. The Texans are now 0-7 in the Divisional Round and remain the only current franchise to have never reached a conference championship game.
More concerningly, what should the team do with Stroud (20/47, 212 yards, TD, 4 INTs; 2/11 rushing)? He was the LVP of these playoffs by far, turning the ball over 7 times in two games. Since a great rookie year, he has regressed and hasn’t reached the same heights. While he has been mostly solid, I worry if the line has ruined him. I called that unit the Achilles’ heel, and it was. For New England, their fortune can’t be any better. They now face a Broncos team without Bo Nix, giving them a real chance to reach the Super Bowl. This team is still somewhat fraudulent to me, but SOMEONE has to come out of the AFC…right?
NFC
(1) Seattle Seahawks 41, (6) San Francisco 49ers 6
My confidence in the 49ers was quite low for this game given how Seattle manhandled them in week 18. Though they regained OT Trent Williams for this matchup, they didn’t have injured TE George Kittle. The one thing that gave them a chance was a mid-week oblique injury suffered by Seahawks QB Sam Darnold. That didn’t matter one bit. KR Rashid Shaheed (2/27 rushing) started things off with a bang: a 95-yard return TD on the opening kickoff. San Francisco never got closer than that 7-0 score. A promising opening drive by the 49ers ended with stuffs on both 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 in fringe FG range.
While the Niners got a 3rd-and-1 stuff of their own on Seattle’s next possession, holding them to an FG, it was the Seahawks’ defense that ruled the day. LB Ernest Jones IV forced a fumble from TE Jake Tonges (5/59), and S Julian Love scooped it up. The turnover led to a TD for WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3/19/1). San Francisco finally scored two Eddy Pineiro FGs, including a 56-yarder on a windless night, but it was such hard work. Seattle made them fight for every yard and completely swarmed both RB Christian McCaffrey (11/35; 5/39 receiving) and QB Brock Purdy (15/27, 140 yards, INT; 5/37 rushing, FUM).
Offensively for Seattle, Darnold (12/17, 124 yards, TD) played well, though he didn’t need to do much. The ground game feasted, and when RB Zach Charbonnet (5/20) got banged up, the Seahawks could afford to sit him. Fellow back Kenneth Walker III (19/116/3; 3/29 receiving) scored to give Seattle a 24-6 halftime lead and then twice more in the second half to blow the Niners out. From there, it was about the defense once more. DT Leonard Williams sacked Purdy on 4th down, and Jones picked him off while under pressure. One more strip sack by DE DeMarcus Lawrence gave us Drew Lock vs. Mac Jones for the remainder of the game.
San Francisco truly had a great run. They, Arizona, and Washington had the most games missed by starters this year. The Cardinals and Commanders won a combined 8 games. SF won 13. Kyle Shanahan did a fantastic job coaching them to this point, but his team had nothing left. Seattle, conversely, looks like a team that can go all the way. They possess the best defense in the NFC, with talent galore at all three levels. If the offense just plays complementary football, the Seahawks are tough to stop. In this game, JSN, the league’s leading receiver, barely needed to do anything. That means Seattle still has another gear.
(5) Los Angeles Rams 20, (2) Chicago Bears 17 (OT)
Soldier Field may have been even worse than Foxborough. No rain fell, but that’s only because it was too darn cold. Along with the lower temperature and constant snowfall, Chicago also featured wind befitting its nickname. Add to that the fact that these two coaches don’t seem to be on friendly terms, and you had the recipe for a down-and-dirty game. The Bears had a reshuffled offensive line, with LG Joe Thuney playing left tackle like he did with the Chiefs in a pinch. He did a great job, as did the entirety of the line. QB Caleb Williams wasn’t sacked even once, and the running game averaged 4 YPC. Other issues did them in.
First, HC Ben Johnson continues to be reckless on 4th down. A great opening drive came to a screeching halt when Williams threw a deep heave on 4th-and-2 at the LA 21 and got picked by CB Cobie Durant (2 INTs). They should’ve kicked. Chicago went 3/6 on 4th down, including a TD to WR DJ Moore (5/52/1) on their next try. However, those they missed arguably stung more than the ones they made helped. Short-yardage situations also hurt. LA’s defensive line snuffed those out, with a 4th-and-1 stuff of RB Kyle Monangai (13/36; 4/36 receiving) in FG range especially painful. He and D’Andre Swift (19/76) ran well, so that was odd.
Fortunately for the Bears, Los Angeles had their own offensive problems. The first drive went great: a 14-play, 85-yard march that ended in a TD for RB Kyren Williams (21/87/2; 4/30 receiving). After that, they went into one of their trademark funks. QB Matthew Stafford was uncharacteristically fooled by Chicago’s pressure, taking 4 sacks from a team that normally struggles to rush the passer and throwing some off-target passers. Credit Bears DC Dennis Allen for scheming up some really confusing looks that kept a high-powered offense under control. LA’s great offensive line suddenly couldn’t pass protect.
To end the first half, Chicago actually kicked an FG on a 4th-down play, and the Rams matched that by getting into a bit of a groove with an up-tempo attack. Curiously, the Bears didn’t bring more rushers on that series. LA had this same problem last year in Philadelphia, so it seems like playing in a blizzard really weakens them. If not for the snow, they might’ve won last season’s Super Bowl. Even after Williams gifted the Rams a pick in the 3rd quarter, LA didn’t gain a single yard. Neither team scored during that period. Chicago moved the ball really well but made some predictable 3rd-down play calls. LA solved their problem in the 4th.
My biggest complaint with the Rams’ offense was that they weren’t nearly committed enough to the run game. The line was doing really well with run blocking, but they aired out the ball in the wind. As a result, both Stafford (20/42, 258 yards) and WR Puka Nacua (5/56) had subpar games. However, in the 4th quarter, they got back to the ground attack. Fourteen plays and 91 yards later, WR Davante Adams (2/24) had his first catch of the game, and Kyren Williams had his second TD. Chicago did what they did best after that: failed on 4th-and-goal. LA simply had to run out the clock, but they ironically ran TOO MUCH in that situation.
On 3rd-and-10 with 2:07 left, it would’ve been a perfect time for Stafford to throw, as the 2-minute warning would’ve stopped the cloick anyway. Instead, they ran up the middle and punted…to midfield. When the Bears are involved, you know what’s next. On 4th-and-4 at the LAR 14, Williams drifted back to nearly midfield and heaved a prayer that somehow landed in the arms of TE Cole Kmet (3/31/1) for a trying TD. The miracle play forced OT, where the Rams quickly punted. As the Bears moved the ball with ease once more, LA needed a hero. That man was S Kam Curl, who made a diving INT on a deep shot to save the game.
Back on offense, the Ram’s vets carried the team. Adams made a ridiculous sideline grab, Nacua earned a key 3rd-down conversion, and Stafford guided the whole unit into FG range, where K Harrison Mevis knocked a 42-yard game-winner through the uprights. Usually the team against Chicago loses in heartbreak fashion, but this time it was their turn. Williams (23/42; 257 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs; 5/40 rushing) and Johnson made a few too many mistakes to beat a great team. LA needs to get their act together for game #3 against Seattle. In my mind, this is the Super Bowl. I just hope it’s as great as the last matchup.