2025 College Football: CFP Semifinal Takeaways
In our 3rd round of the CFP, we had our first-ever 10-seed advance when Miami defeated (6) Ole Miss in an all-time battle. The Fiesta Bowl was much less dramatic, with (1) Indiana thoroughly dispatching (5) Oregon. These winners will play in the National Championship Game on January 19th at Hard Rock Stadium. It should be a really physical game with how these teams handle the lines of scrimmage. I’ll stop talking now and let you go straight to my CFP semifinal takeaways! For the last time, I will remind you that these games, while technically bowls, aren’t really regular bowl games; you can find the takeaways for those right here.
Semifinal #1 at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: (10) Miami 31, (6) Ole Miss 27
What a classic. It started off a little slowly, but wow did it deliver. Neither team did much in the first quarter. Ole Miss went 3-and-out twice, while Miami scored just 1 FG. QB Carson Beck missed WR Malachi Toney on an open TD, and a poor Toney wildcat call stalled the drive in the red zone after 7 minutes. Once the second quarter began, we got rolling. Rebels RB Kewan Lacy (11/103/1) burst for a 73-yard TD run, handing Miami their first deficit of the CFP. However, Lacy hurt his hamstring on the play, left until the 3rd quarter, and became a decoy until the 4th. At that point he got a few more carries in a gusty effort.
Miami responded with a long TD drive, and time of possession became a major theme. The Hurricanes held the ball for 41:22 because of their grinding run game and Ole Miss’ up-tempo attack. Miami also retained the ball by converting 3rd downs, doing so at an impressive 11/19 clip. The Rebels conversely went 2/10 and didn’t have any conversions in the first half. Ole Miss tied the game with an FG, but a coverage bust handed WR Keelan Marion (7/114/1) a 52-yard TD. Late in the half, Mississippi got the ball back thanks to a sack by DE Princewill Umanmielen, and K Lucas Carneiro paid it off with an epic 58-yard FG.
The Hurricanes started to unravel in the 3rd quarter. K Carter Davis missed a field goal after a grounding call on a flea flicker. Miami’s defense dropped 4 INTs in their own territory, which would’ve been costlier if not for a rare Carneiro miss. Beck then threw an unlucky red zone INT on a tipped pass after a 7:37 drive. Ole Miss’ game plan and adjustments were fantastic. They got the ball out very quickly to neutralize Miami’s pass rush. The Canes had just 1 sack in the final minute of the 3rd quarter, and DEs Ruben Bain Jr and Akheem Mesidor got shut out. Mississippi also changed their pass rush after the break and piled up 4 sacks.
One other thing that hurt Miami in the second half was penalties. After committing 0 against Ohio State, they racked up 10 for 74 yards here. A targeting foul on CB Xavier Lucas was a bad call and led to a go-ahead FG by the Rebels, but the others were mostly mental mistakes by the Canes. Toney (5/81/1) restored Miami’s lead with a weaving TD for their first points of the second half, but the defense finally broke. Without Lucas or Ethan O’Connor, another CB who left injured, Miami’s secondary was decimated. Without those players, the unit struggled, and we’ve all learned by now that the 4th quarter is Trinidad Chambliss time.
The Ole Miss QB did what he does best: make late-game magic. Chambliss (23/37, 277 yards, TD) led his team down the field in just 6 plays for a go-ahead TD, but he left too much time on the clock. With 3:13 to go, all eyes were on Beck. While he may have been doubted throughout his career, he silenced those critics with a career-defining drive. He expertly led a 75-play march in 15 plays, including 4 clutch 3rd-down conversions. Beck (23/37, 268 yards, 2 TDs, INT, rush TD) ran in from 3 yards out with just 18 seconds remaining, putting the Canes on top for good. Chambliss led a great last-ditch effort, but his Hail Mary fell incomplete.
I don’t know that we’ll be able to top this game. Two great teams fought their hearts out, and either one would’ve been deserving. Ole Miss managed their Lane Kiffin drama masterfully, and Chambliss was one of the stories of the season. Sadly, that story might be coming to an end. Miami gets to live quite a dream though. They exorcised their Fiesta Bowl demons and now get to play a home game for the National Championship. To all the people who questioned their inclusion in the CFP: that take looks rather foolish now, but it’s alright. The Hurricanes are clearly using it as fuel, and they’re the ones laughing last.
Semifinal #2 at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: (1) Indiana 56, (5) Oregon 22
As compelling and hard-fought as the Fiesta Bowl was, this one…wasn’t. Indiana does not mess around at all, and that was apparent on the very first play. CB D’Angelo Ponds read an out route, jumped it, and earned a pick six off QB Dante Moore. Wisely, Oregon went to the ground game on their next drive. The problem with that was the number of missing RBs for the Ducks. Noah Whittington (turf toe) was supposedly ready to go, but he never played. A few other backs went into the portal and left. Jay Harris (16/35/1; 3/32 receiving), in the portal himself, ran tough and put in a good effort. After 7:38 and 14 plays, the game was tied.
Not to be outdone, the Hoosiers’ ground game looked just as good. They countered with a long (6:31) 75-yard TD drive of their own, with RBs Roman Hemby (17/53) and Kaelon Black (12/63/2) leading the way. After a pair of punts, Indiana’s defense officially took over. They recovered a Moore fumble that led to a quick TD, and then the sacks rolled in. Daniel Ndukwe had 2 of them (his first of the season), and his strip allowed Indiana’s offense to put yet another TD on the board. For good measure, Ndukwe blocked a punt later in the game as well. Interspersed throughout, QB Fernando Mendoza was surgical with his opportunities.
Even if the Hoosiers got the ball in plus territory, they still had to execute. Mendoza (17/20, 177 yards, 5 TDs; 6/28 rushing) did that with aplomb, throwing more TDs than incompletions for the second straight game. WR Elijah Sarratt (7/75/2) was the biggest beneficiary, but Charlie Becker (2/48/1) continues to come on in the CFP. At 6’4″ with deep threat speed, he may be a riser during next year’s draft process (he’s too young for the 2026 class). Leading 35-7 at the half, Indiana left no doubt about the outcome. We saw the same story to start the 3rd quarter, and even though that was their worst frame, Oregon never threatened.
Ducks RB Dierre Hill (5/86; 2/25 receiving) had a 71-yard run to set up a TD, and Oregon added a garbage-time score with under a minute left, but the Hoosiers still outscored them 21-15 during the second half despite taking their foot off the gas. Moore (24/39, 285 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 2 FUM) inflated his stats while trailing but put his team in a deep hole with his turnovers. I’m not sure why Mel Kiper Jr thinks he’s QB1 in this draft. That’s clearly Mendoza. Oregon has to replace him next year regardless, as well as OC Will Stein and DC Tosh Lupoi, who are becoming head coaches at Kentucky and California, respectively. Nice game to go out on!
So much for it being hard to beat the same team twice. The Hoosiers handled Oregon in week 7 and then dominated them here. Now, they have a chance to make some history. Not just Indiana history, though they’d indeed be the first team in program history to win a National Championship. I’m talking about the chance to be the first 16-0 team in college football history! Mendoza has extra motivation, as he’ll be playing in his home city of Miami. Truthfully, the only thing that can stop the Hoosiers may be themselves. Curt Cignetti has his team playing elite football. Who knows, maybe he’ll even crack a smile if they win!