Week 16 Takeaways for the 2025 NFL Season
Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! If you’re reading this, your level of holiday cheer may depend on what happened with your team. The good: the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears, Eagles, Jaguars, Patriots, Chargers, and Bills all clinched playoff berths. The bad: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa got benched, and replacement Quinn Ewers was much worse. In more mixed results, Colts QB Philip Rivers had a renaissance, but his team lost anyway, while the Texans got a win but barely survived the putrid Raiders. Read on for my (hopefully festive?) week 16 takeaways, as we have plenty of football to get to this time of year!
TNF: Seahawks Clinch Playoff Berth with Massive Comeback vs. Rams
The drama surrounding this game was supposed to come before kickoff. It’s been a rough couple of days for the Nacua family. Without injured WR Davante Adams, the Rams had to put that behind them, and they did. The red zone weapon was badly missed though. As much as LA hoarded the ball in the first half, they only led 13-7 at the break. That’s because they didn’t finish their drives. An early 4th down failed, and backup RG Justin Dedich was wrongly called for an ineligible man downfield penalty on a 4th and goal try. Despite racking up a ton of yards, the Rams only had 1 TD (and 3 Harrison Mevis FGs) to show for it.
Seattle barely let QB Sam Darnold throw in the first half. When they finally did in the final minute, he threw a dart to Cooper Kupp (3/39), who fumbled it for a touchback. Most of Seattle’s offense through 3 quarters was RB Kenneth Walker III (11/100/1; 3/64 receiving). He had a big catch and run that led to their first-quarter TD, and his 55-yard TD run gave the Seahawks the lead early in the 3rd quarter. Star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL’s leading receiver, was shut out in the first half. Right after his first catch, Darnold threw an INT that got returned to the 1. From there, LA got hot and opened up a 30-14 advantage.
Darnold responded with a poor red zone INT to DT Kobie Turner (who also had 1.5 sacks and another PBU) on his next drive. He has been poor in his last 3 games against the Rams, especially back in week 11. As in that game though, the defense clamped down late to give him new life. Last time, they lost. Here, special teams tipped the scales some more. On LA’s first punt of the game (which somehow didn’t come until the 4th quarter), Rashid Shaheed took it for a TD, and Seattle cut the deficit to one score with a 2-point try. The Rams punted again, and Shaheed had a 31-yard rush that set up another touchdown.
Seattle’s tying 2-point attempt was ruled no good. However, replay showed that Darnold threw a backward pass, which bounced around before RB Zach Charbonnet (9/32/1; 4/22 receiving) scooped it up in the end zone. With that, we had a 30-30 ballgame. LA then couldn’t get out of their own way. They had a 3rd straight 3 and out thanks to a Colby Parkinson drop. Mevis missed his first FG of the season, a potential 48-yard game-winner. When we reached OT, RB Blake Corum (14/48/1) dropped a pass that nearly got picked off. QB Matthew Stafford (29/49, 457 yards, 3 TDs), in pure MVP form, had to go to a trusted option.
Obviously, that was WR Puka Nacua (12/225/2), the league’s second-leading receiver. He caught a slant to convert a crucial 3rd down and followed it up with a 41-yard TD to cap a monster performance. Seattle, who chose to defer the OT kickoff, still had a chance, and Darnold (22/34, 270 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had his redemption. Despite taking 4 sacks in the game, he kept firing. JSN (8/96/1) had a great second half and teamed with Darnold to march down the field for a TD (by his hands). Deferring gave the Seahawks the option to go for 2, and with 3:13 left on the clock for the Rams, they went for it. Darnold converted.
Much maligned for being unable to win big games, Darnold should breathe easier following this 38-37 stunner. It was Seattle’s first win in 173 tries when being down 15+ in the 4th quarter. The victory punched the Seahawks’ playoff ticket and gave them full control of the NFC’s #1 seed. If they win out, the first-round bye is theirs. Frankly, this is a disaster for LA. For all the things they did well, just like in week 11, they let Seattle creep around. This time, it cost them. I expect the Rams to finish 13-4 with games against Atlanta and Arizona remaining. As a result of this TNF game though, 13-4 might get them nothing more than a wild card.
Editor’s Note: The Rams have fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn following this game.
Saturday Double-Header: Eagles Clinch; Bears Come Back Again
Both of this week’s Saturday games had critical impacts on the NFC playoff race. Philadelphia, fresh off their drubbing of the hapless Raiders, did not start nearly as well against Washington. Part of their problem was K Jake Elliott missing 2 FGs. They weren’t easy at 43 and 52 yards, but they’re kicks he needed to make. The Eagles at one point went on 4th-and-7 to avoid letting him kick. Philly’s other issue is that the Commanders might just be the league’s best at stopping the tush push. I saw them stuff it at least 3 times, and they induced false starts twice. When that play isn’t working, maybe the Eagles are just out of sorts.
Eventually, RB Saquon Barkley (21/132/1) got going, and the offense went with him. Their victory was assured when WAS QB Marcus Mariota (7/14, 95 yards) left injured. Third-stringer Josh Johnson (5/9, 43 yards, INT) gave them no chance. One interesting event was a 2-point try by PHI when up 27-18 (already 3 scores) with 4:26 to go. Their conversion sparked a brawl and led to 3 ejections. HC Nick Sirianni says it was math, but I think it was done to keep Elliott from kicking. Either way, Philadelphia became the first back-to-back NFC East champs since 2004 with their win, and the Cowboys were eliminated due to the result.
Over at Soldier Field, the Bears and Packers had a sloppy start. Both teams failed on early 4th-and-1 plays in the red zone. Chicago’s came when the center snapped the ball over the head of RB Kyle Monangai (9/50; 3/43 receiving) on a trick play. Bears edge rusher Thomas Booker committed TWO roughing the passer penalties, with the second being extremely impactful. He hit QB Jordan Love (8/13, 77 yards) in the head, concussing him and ending his night. That forced Malik Willis (9/11, 121 yards, TD; 10/44 rushing) into the game, and he was actually not bad at all, especially with RB Josh Jacobs (12/36, FUM) banged up.
In a wild wind, Willis moved the ball well and put up 13 points in a half and change of work. You couldn’t really ask for more from the backup. Green Bay’s defense did the heavy lifting, holding the Bears to 3 points through 3 quarters. Eventually though, Chicago found a groove. QB Caleb Williams (19/34, 250 yards, 2 TDs; 3/30 rushing) continued his late-game heroics, while K Cairo Santos masterfully kicked all 3 of his FGs through the uprights in spite of the gusts. Trailing 16-9 with 1:59 to go, the Bears tried an onside kick and recovered it, which caused all hell to break loose throughout the stadium.
Williams led his team down the field and faced 4th-and-4 at the 6. He found rookie WR Jahdae Walker (2/21/1), who made a tremendous catch for the tying TD. In OT, Green Bay faced a 4th down of their own: 4th-and-1 at the Bears’ 36. They went for it, and Willis dropped the ball for a turnover on downs. Four plays later, Williams heaved a 46-yard bomb to WR DJ Moore (5/97/1), and the game was over 22-16. Thanks to Detroit’s loss (see below), the Bears clinched a playoff spot and are 1 game from sealing the NFC North. Green Bay is still in fantastic shape to claim a wild card, but they may rue this game later.
Panthers and Steelers Inch Closer to Division Titles
Two teams are potentially within one week of claiming their division crowns. We expected one of them, and the other is Carolina. I’m still not all that convinced that Carolina is a good team (their -50 point differential betrays them). That said, neither are their opponents, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After a hot start to the season, the Bucs have been abysmal, losing 5 of their last 6 games. This week’s critical intradivisional match was essentially a microcosm of their campaign. For a little more than a quarter, Tampa rocketed out of the gate, scoring 10 points including a Mike Evans TD grab. Then, like their season, they imploded.
QB Baker Mayfield (18/26, 145 yards, TD, INT) can’t escape his funk, and the defense fared poorly against Bryce Young (21/32, 191 yards, 2 TDs; 4/20 rushing) and the Panthers’ offense. While Carolina didn’t run great, they kept extending drives with timely plays. WR Tetairoa McMillan (6/73/1) continued his stellar rookie season, and K Ryan Fitzgerald made 3 FGs, including the eventual game-winner. With a win and a TB loss (or a head-to-head win in week 18), Carolina wins the NFC South. This is a stunning fall for Tampa and a great story for the Panthers. One thing these cats definitely have is the clutch gene.
The expected division leaders are the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Baltimore scuffling (see below), the Steelers had a chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC North, but they had to go to the home of a desperate Detroit team to do it. The two teams played an even first half, with the most notable play being an amazing TD catch by RB Kenneth Gainwell (9/50; 5/78/1 receiving), who led the team in receiving yards. Oh, and one peculiar incident with WR DK Metcalf (4/42) throwing a punch at a fan. The refs didn’t see it, so Metcalf wasn’t punished on the field, but he did receiver a 2-game suspension a day later. What a boneheaded move.
Pittsburgh’s offense continued to excel in the second half. QB Aaron Rodgers (27/41, 266 yards, TD) is playing his best football of the year, and RB Jaylen Warren (14/143/2) ripped off 2 long TD runs on back-to-back drives. The Steelers also shut down Detroit’s running game like I’ve never seen before: 15 yards total. Pittsburgh got some separation with a 29-17 lead, but the Lions’ offense didn’t surrender. QB Jared Goff (34/54, 364 yards, 3 TDs) led a good TD drive to cut the deficit to 5, and then a true anomaly took place: Steelers K Chris Boswell missed a 37-yard FG (the snap was bad). That meant Detroit had a chance to take the lead.
The Lions got bailed out on 4th down with a DPI call. They marched into the red zone with 0:48 to go, and suddenly they controlled the game. Goff threw a would-be TD to WR Amon-Ra St Brown (4/54), but OPI on WR Isaac TeSlaa (4/52/1) nullified it. That call was tight. On the final snap of the game, St Brown caught a pass at the 1, where his forward progress halted. He lost the ball, and Goff ran it in for 6. However, St Brown committed OPI, and by rule, that ended the game without a review (the officials said St Brown, not Goff, scored for some reason). A teammate can’t advance a fumble inside of 2 minutes anyway.
The victory gave Steelers coach Mike Tomlin his 19th straight non-losing season, which is unreal. Why would fans want this guy fired? In the here and now, Pittsburgh is a win over the lowly Browns from winning the AFC North. A previously flawed team, the Steelers could actually win a playoff game if they continue on this trajectory. In some serious irony, Rodgers actually helped his hated Bears. Detroit’s loss clinched a playoff spot for Chicago, and the Lions must win out while the Packers lose out to return to the postseason. Injuries really did them in, but it’s still a stunning fall for last year’s #1 seed.
Jaguars Announce Arrival in AFC with Convincing Win at Mile High
Denver has been the league’s hottest team, winning 11 straight games. Jacksonville wasn’t doing badly either though, with a 5-game win streak of their own. One flaw you can pick with the Broncos is that they often start slowly before storming back. How would that work against a strong opponent like Jacksonville? We didn’t find out, because both teams started similarly. In fact, the game was tied 17-17 early in the third quarter. At that point, the Jags made their move and left Denver in the dust. QB Trevor Lawrence (23/36, 279 yards, 3 TDs; 6/20/1 rushing) is playing at an MVP level: all the flash plays without the errors.
The big surprise in this game was WR Parker Washington. While close watchers of the Jaguars likely saw him get a bit better each week, they probably didn’t even see a 145-yard outburst coming (he also scored a TD). With everything clicking, the Jaguars scored 17 unanswered points to go up 34-17. However, the 4th quarter started. That’s Denver’s time to shine. When the Broncos score a field goal to cut the lead to 2 scores and their defense forced a 3-and-out, I wondered if the magic was back. Not this time. QB Bo Nix (28/47, 352 yards, TD, INT, FUM) couldn’t make the necessary plays, committing 3 turnovers (one on downs).
In fact, after the field goal, Denver never scored again. Jacksonville simply wasn’t going to collapse like the Giants and Eagles did before them. As a result of this 34-20 stunner, Denver lost their lead for the #1 seed. Due to tiebreakers, they still earn it if they win out, and their week 18 matchup against the Chargers looks immensely important. For Jacksonville, a team that has mostly feasted on bad teams, they now have dominant wins over the Broncos AND the Chargers on their resume. HC Liam Cohen has the entire team playing great, and they’re officially in the playoffs. They look like they can do damage once they get there.
Three Teams’ Starting QBs Got Hurt…and Only One Won
Unfortunately in the NFL, injuries are part of the game. This week, 3 teams saw their QBs exit injured. None of them returned, and just one of their teams won. That would be the Minnesota Vikings, who I insist are better in general without JJ McCarthy. Before the glass QB left with his 4th different injury of the year (a hand issue), he had already thrown a pick and lost a fumble. Luckily, they were playing the Giants, so they only needed 1 more FG in an entire half of football to win 16-13. Backup Max Brosmer (7/9, 52 yards) didn’t lay an egg this time, but this was hardly a dominant win over one of the league’s worst teams.
The most stunning outcome came in Nashville, where the Chiefs, already without Patrick Mahomes, started Gardner Minshew. Though Minshew had only started off 3/8 for 15 yards, he exited with a knee injury. He thankfully avoided an ACL tear, but his year is still done with a tibial plateau fracture. Practice squad elevation Chris Oladokun (11/16, 111 yards) came in and did well but didn’t produce a TD. It didn’t help that KC is mailing it in, putting anyone with a scratch on IR. Somehow, they lost 26-9 to the Titans of all teams. That laid bare how much help their roster needs. Perhaps their new era will be underway by their 2031 move.
Finally, in the domain of “he got hurt AGAIN?!”, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson left the Ravens’ game against the Patriots with a back contusion. Jackson (7/10, 101 yards) played fine if not spectacularly. I must note though that the offense performed better with Tyler Huntley (9/10, 65 yards) because it ran through RB Derrick Henry (18/128/2). Baltimore actually held a lead until their defense crumbled late, and this result is vital. New England stays in 1-seed contention and remains alone in first in the AFC East. The Ravens are one loss from elimination, and with the way this season has gone, that’s a rather fitting conclusion.