2025 College Football: Week 13 Takeaways
Just two weeks remain in the regular season, and only two ranked-vs.-ranked matchups took place. Both were pretty much chalk. (8) Oklahoma’s defense smothered (22) Missouri, while (7) Oregon ran away from (15) USC in the second half. That doesn’t mean we had a calm week. (9) Notre Dame embarrassed Syracuse 70-7, and UAB suffered from a far darker event. The playoff chase is heating up, with potential entrants falling by the wayside each week. We’re getting close to knowing who will play in the conference championship games AND the CFP. Enjoy my week 13 takeaways, and have a happy Thanksgiving later this week!
(12) Utah Survives Upset-Minded Kansas State in Shootout
By far our most entertaining game of the day came from the Big XII. Because of course it did. That conference always has weird things happened, and another almost took place this week. Utah hosted Kansas State, a talented team with a disappointing 5-5 record. Two punts started the game, but then we started the scoring and never looked back. The teams executed 6 straight TD drives to arrive at a 21-21 tie. Kansas State QB Avery Johnson (12/23, 102 yards, TD, INT; 12/72/1 rushing) didn’t throw the ball well as usual, but he ran effectively. RBs Antonio Martin Jr (5/89/1) and especially Joe Jackson (24/293/3) did so even better.
Utah had a bit more balance, but QB Devon Dampier (18/33, 258 yards, 2 TDs; 14/94/2, FUM lost rushing) did most of the work. RB Wayshawn Parker (19/100) helped with the ground game. KSU tacked on a field goal, forced a punt, and then ran for an 80-yard TD to open up a 10-point halftime lead. However, the Utes responded again in the third quarter with two consecutive TDs, regaining a 35-31 advantage. The Wildcats scored 10 unanswered points of their own before a Dampier fumble early in the 4th quarter threatened to end Utah’s hopes. Another Jackson TD indeed extend the lead, but what ensued was insane.
Kansas State went for 2 to go up by 14. A penalty wiped out their successful try, and the second attempt went for a Tao Johnson pick-2. Instead of a 49-35 lead, KSU led 47-37 and ceded their momentum. Suddenly energized, Utah scored a TD, forced a 3-and-out, scored another TD to go ahead by 4, and intercepted Johnson to seal a crazy 51-47 win. The Utes’ offense has been on a tear as of late, scoring 45+ points in each of their past 4 games. Kansas State has put forth a much more inconsistent attack, even within games like this one. The Wildcats must now win next week at home against Colorado to make a bowl game.
Most of the implications here concern Utah. With a loss, the Utes would’ve fallen back from #12 as a 3-loss team. Given that they’re already a long-shot to reach the Big XII title game, their CFP hopes would’ve been completely dead. As winners, they could theoretically be jumped by (13) Miami, but no further in all likelihood. That keeps them in striking range: you need to be in the top 10 to earn an at-large bid if we assume that two conference champions (ACC, Group of 6) will come from outside the top 12. They still can’t win the Big XII because of (11) BYU’s victory, but they at least have a shot. It’s not likely, but it can happen.
(16) Georgia Tech Falls Short in Comeback Attempt Against Pittsburgh
Once again, the ACC is cannibalizing itself. Every week, an unranked but decent team stuns one of the ranked squads that can actually make a charge. This time, Georgia Tech, whose defense actually fell apart two weeks ago at NC State and struggled again at Boston College, was the victim. Similarly to last week’s comeback win over BC, the defense struggled for most of the game while the offense was sluggish only at the start. Pittsburgh scored 3 TDs in the first quarter, while the Yellowjackets went 3-and-out thrice, turned the ball over on downs, and threw an INT. An early second-quarter Pitt TD put them in a 28-0 hole.
To their credit, Georgia Tech rallied. They cut their deficit in half before the game’s midpoint, but their backbreaker came in the 3rd quarter. After driving down the field, QB Haynes King (27/41, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; 20/76/1 rushing) threw a critical pick to LB Braylan Lovelace, who took it back 100 yards for a score. King has had a really good year; he is basically a 1-man offense and had fringe Heisman buzz earlier in the season. In this game though, he made a few too many errors that his team couldn’t afford. It was an ill-timed play because Pittsburgh’s offense went into a second-half funk and had lost the momentum.
Georgia Tech scored two 4th-quarter TDs to pull within 7, and they had 4:51 left to go. All they had to do was force a punt. That’s when Panthers RB Ja’Kyrian Turner (21/201/1) stepped in to save the day. Needing a conversion on 3rd and 4, Turner sprinted 56 yards up the middle to the end zone, putting a dagger in the Yellowjackets’ comeback. Ga Tech fell 42-28, dropping their second conference game in 3 weeks. For Pittsburgh, this win is highly consequential. They are now 6-1 in conference play. A win next week over (13) Miami and a (19) Virginia or SMU loss are needed to reach the ACC title game, but they’re still in the conversation.
This is a particularly devastating outcome for Georgia Tech. In fact, their CFP hopes are hanging by a thread. Winning out would’ve assured them a spot in the title game and an outside chance of an at-large bid. Now, they need Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU losses to reach the conference championship game. Additionally, dropping from #16 eliminates their at-large bid opportunity. The Yellowjackets really messed up here. I should also note that it’ll be important to see where Pitt and SMU are ranked on Tuesday…if at all. If either is behind two Group of 6 teams and then wins the title, that doomsday scenario is back in play.
Are SEC Cupcake Games Smart to Play This Late in the Season?
For many years now, week 13 has been a pseudo-bye week for most of the SEC. That’s because teams in the conference schedule “cupcake” matchups, i.e., games against teams well below their level. These are often FCS opponents and bottom-tier Group of 6 teams. The idea is simple: amid a grueling SEC schedule, teams could use a break while still playing games so as not to get stale. Slotting these matchups between the end of the SEC slate (for many) and the week 14 rivalry games (which may or may not be conference foes) also makes sense, as the timing comes at a natural point in the calendar and shortly before postseason play.
Noting that not all teams schedule these cupcakes (see the Missouri-Oklahoma game), it is definitely a trend. (10) Alabama obliterated Eastern Illinois, (3) Texas A&M shut out Samford, and Auburn crushed Mercer. The cupcakes are expensive too, with the punching bags raking in massive payments to take their beatings. For example, Georgia paid Charlotte a record $1.9M to pound them 35-3. With next year’s 9-game SEC schedule potentially ending the cupcake tradition, I wanted to take a look at whether the current scheduling strategy is smart and whether the conference will regret moving away from it starting in 2026.
Personally, I very much like the timing of the schedule fluff. Early-season demolitions of bad teams are nice to build confidence and iron out some kinks, but teams aren’t battered and bruised yet. In these late-season games, teams only have to play their starters for a half or so before providing backups some valuable playing time. The other aspect of the timing is the committee: that group of people clearly doesn’t care about early in season (see Notre Dame being ahead of Miami). Playing a hard game early on isn’t nearly as risky as facing a top-notch opponent later. Remember: it’s not about if you lose but when you lose.
It’s foolish for the SEC to invite more chaos by giving teams another chance to beat each other up. Just look at this year’s ACC. Nobody is ranked higher than 13th because one team upsets another with regularity. An extra in-conference game is an opportunity for that futility to befall the SEC. I can easy imagine Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M weakening each other’s resumes. Teams such as Oklahoma, Texas, and even Vanderbilt can also do plenty of damage. Unless each conference is guaranteed a certain number of CFP slots, which the SEC doesn’t want for some reason, the conference will regret their choice.
Weekly CFP Update and Analysis
Still no changes to the top 3, and we might not get any until the conference championship games. I’m not sure (1) Ohio State, (2) Indiana, and (3) Texas A&M can physically miss the CFP at this point. The big move came at #4, where Georgia displaced (10) Alabama. Nobody rose more than (8) Oklahoma (3 spots), who beat the Crimson Tide last week. I strongly object to Alabama falling below (9) Notre Dame. The committee said their week 1 loss to Florida State was a factor. But the Irish losing their first TWO games doesn’t matter? Make up your $!&@ing minds. That’s one of my two primary complaints this week.
The other comes at the bottom of the top 25. I fully expected to see James Madison and/or North Texas in the rankings. After all, they have only 1 loss each and are ranked in the other two polls. To my surprise, neither one joined the rankings, but (24) Tulane did. Clearly, this is a team that the committee favors in the Group of 6. They’re indeed good, and I can even excuse a 45-10 loss to Ole Miss (as bad as that was). A 48-26 drubbing by UTSA? That’s less forgivable, and I personally would’ve ranked both of those one-loss teams ahead of the Green Wave. At least the ranked Group of 6 team won for once this season.
I don’t believe that anyone ranked lower than 14th can reach the CFP as an at-large team, and even that might be pushing it. (14) Vanderbilt could finish 10-2 with competitive losses against Alabama and Texas, but the committee seems to view them as an inferior team to (13) Miami and (12) Utah, who could both reach 10-2 as well. Because the Big Ten and SEC title contenders are at the very top of the rankings, minus Alabama, there’s limited room for teams in the 6-12 range to lose with just one game remaining. (11) BYU could fall to (5) Texas Tech again in that championship matchup, but that might not be enough.
Looking at the big picture, the top 8 teams are likely in. Even if one of the top 5 schools loses its conference championship game, it would be unreasonable to drop them out of the top 9 and behind teams who didn’t play a 13th game (though the committee has done stupid things like that in the past). Alabama and BYU can’t take another loss, so they’d need to both make and win their conference title games. In that scenario, nobody below #11 would make it, and even #9 (currently Notre Dame) could be bumped for one of the final 2 champions. That would be the most chaotic outcome, and if nothing else, college football brings chaos!
Looking at the Kickers and Punters Who Could Get Drafted
Even though I keep preaching that teams should poach their kickers from the UFL and not spend draft capital on the position, NFL GMs continue to take kickers on day 3. Punters can be acquired almost anywhere, yet they are viewed as draftable too. Therefore, I’m begrudgingly examining which players at these two positions could hear their names called in the 2026 draft. To be clear: there’s nobody who’s so amazing that I’d personally spend a draft pick on him. Some team (multiple most likely) will though. As a result, we may as well at least check out whether our favorite squads are looking at the right guys.
The most talked-about kicker is Michigan’s Dominic Zvada. Based on last year’s performance, even I might say to draft him. He made 21 of 22 FGs, with the lone miss being blocked. Zvada has a strong leg and demonstrated great accuracy…until 2025. He’s just 12 of 18 on the season, so I’d feel uncomfortable spending a draft pick on him. Far more interesting to me is Florida’s Trey Smack. One of the more consistent kickers, he is above 80% on FGs for his career, and he can boot the ball a long distance. Florida kickers, including Evan McPherson and Eddy Pineiro, have a strong NFL track record, boosting Smack’s pedigree.
Perhaps the most intriguing kicker of all is someone most probably haven’t seen attempt a field goal. That’s because he plays in Hawaii, whose games air late at night or not at all. Indeed, I’m talking about the “Tokyo Toe” himself: Kanzei Matsuzawa. He picked up the whole kicking thing later than most due to a lack of a teacher. At 26 years old, he’s an aged prospect but has only been a kicker for 6 years. Still, he’s a perfect 23/23 this season with a long of 52 yards. Given his limited experience, Matsuzawa may have more upside than most kickers you’ll hear about. The senior could be worth a late-round flier to the right team.
Punting is pretty subjective, as teams’ needs differ. One guy with a booming leg is Georgia’s Brett Thorson. His distance averages aren’t fantastic, but that’s because the Bulldogs rarely punt from deep in their own territory. Another big-legged player is Syracuse’s Jack Stonehouse. His cousin Ryan is a boomer himself, so this Jack’s proficiency shouldn’t be a surprise. The best overall P could be Michigan State’s Ryan Eckley, who leads the nation with a 49.6 average. His best attribute is accuracy, which would benefit teams with corner kicking needs. Any of these guys could be good, but again, a UDFA signing should be enough.