2025 College Football: Week 11 Takeaways
The CFP committee released their first official rankings on Tuesday, and amazingly, I’m pretty satisfied! This is quite a rarity. Each week, I’m going to dedicate one of my takeaways below to analyzing their rankings. I’ll explain where they went wrong (or right if that miraculously happens like this week) and why, as well as what I’d do differently. I will also try to provide a draft nugget each week, focusing on a particular player or position group. Late in the season, draft preparation and playoff positioning take centerstage, and my posts will reflect that, but we’ll still talk about other stuff! Let’s start now with my week 11 takeaways!
(8) Texas Tech Uses Well-Paid Defensive Line to Pummel (7) BYU
By far the biggest game on the schedule this week was (7) BYU at (8) Texas Tech. The Cougars came into the game undefeated, yet the Red Raiders were 13.5-point favorites. BYU’s schedule wasn’t exactly difficult, and TTU paid for a very nice team. That dichotomy came crashing down on the visitors, as BYU never really had a chance. Things started poorly when PR Parker Kingston had a horrible muff while drifting backward to catch a booming punt. Texas Tech only earned a field goal off the takeaway, but that was more than BYU scored for 3 quarters. The Red Raiders shut the Cougars out until halfway through the final frame.
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier (23/38, 188 yards, TD, INT; 11/12 rushing) had trouble finding open receivers and had no room to run. Nobody else could run against TTU’s vaunted front. The Cougars’ own defensive line did very well for a while, aided by TTU QB Behren Morton (17/32, 219 yards, TD) taking 15-yard sacks. Eventually though, the dam broke, and RB Cameron Dickey (23/121/1; 1/24 receiving) wore them down because BYU’s offense couldn’t stay on the field. Their fourth-quarter score did nothing but prevent a shutout; Texas Tech already led 26-0 before it took place, and they cruised to a 29-7 conference win.
Not everything was perfect for TTU. Their red zone offense continues to be a struggle, and they settled for 5 FGs. Still, the defense being so dominant makes those issues less glaring because they clamp down on their opponents. The effort was enough to earn the Red Raiders their first top-10 win in 13 years. However, the team is seeking much more. This victory puts TTU in the driver’s seat in the Big XII. They rightfully have designs on a CFP run. BYU took a large blow by losing in such an ugly manner, but based on the ACC’s implosion, the Cougars can still make the playoff. However, they might have to beat none other than TTU to do so.
Mendoza, Moore Lead Heisman-Like Drives to Avoid Upsets
The Big Ten nearly gave us two shocking results, but a pair of Heisman candidates and NFL draft prospects prevented that from happening. (2) Indiana found itself in an unexpected battle against Penn State, losers of 5 straight. The Nittany Lions played more like the team we thought they’d be entering the season, with a strong ground game and good defense. While the Hoosiers took a 20-7 lead, PSU didn’t fold and came all the way back to take a 24-20 advantage. Indiana managed to get the ball back with 1:51 to go, and the first thing Penn State did was sack QB Fernando Mendoza. Unfazed, Mendoza got back to work.
He led a 10-play, 80-yard drive in just 1:15. Mendoza (19/30, 218 yards, TD, INT; 6/20/1 rushing), who had a subpar game prior to the drive, fired lasers both over the middle and to the sideline. With top WR Elijah Sarratt out injured, Charlie Becker (7/118) and Omar Cooper Jr (6/32/1) picked up the slack. On 3rd and goal with 36 seconds remaining, Mendoza almost threw the ball away, but Cooper had a catch of the year candidate to reel the ball in for the winning TD. His and Mendoza’s heroics saved IU’s undefeated season. One drive was the difference between staying in prime CFP position and falling into jeopardy.
(9) Oregon faced a similar scenario, except that we knew exactly what (20) Iowa would do. The offensively challenged Hawkeyes, who still can’t find a viable QB, ran the ball a ton and played great defense. QB Mark Gronowski (10/18, 138 yards, TD; 12/25/1 rushing) didn’t threaten with his arm, but he made just enough plays to give Iowa a 16-15 win with 1:51 to go. That’s when Ducks QB Dante Moore (13/21, 112 yards, INT; 4/46 rushing), who had a terrible game overall, got the chance to redeem himself. Needing just a field goal, Moore nickel-and-dimed his way down the field while ensuring that Iowa wouldn’t get the ball back.
With a 24-yard strike, Moore earned nearly 1/4 of his total passing yards on the day in one play. More importantly, he got Oregon into field goal range, where K Atticus Sappington connected from 39 yards out to win the game as time expired. While Moore’s effort wasn’t at the level of Mendoza’s, it’s important to remember that the Ducks were very short-handed at the WR position. He had to make do with less, and he found a way to get the job done. Truthfully, neither QB’s game this week was good for his Heisman chances. That said, if one of them winds up winning the award, his final week 11 drive will be part of the highlight reel.
Two SEC Tigers Come up Short in First Games with Interim Coaches
It’s getting tiring talking about coach firings every week. However, another high-profile job opened up with Auburn’s dismissal of Hugh Freeze. With LSU’s very public firing of Brian Kelly, we had two SEC Tigers playing their first games with interim coaches. DC DJ Durkin got the nod for Auburn, and his team responded well. Specifically, a previously dormant offense erupted at Vanderbilt. The offensive line, which had been the bane of this team, moved people in both phases. RB Jeremiah Cobb (16/115; 4/34 receiving) had room to run, and the unit gave QB Ashton Daniels (31/44, 353 yards, 2 TDs; 18/89/2 rushing) time to throw.
When Auburn took a 17-3 lead, the belief really filled the sideline. Then, they allowed a 21-6 run that gave Vandy the lead. A different Auburn team would’ve crumbled, but this one fought back to force OT. For some reason, the defense got much worse and under Durkin while the offense excelled, but Auburn could not control Vandy at all. QB Diego Pavia (25/33, 377 yards, 3 TDs; 18/112/1 rushing) had a banner day, while Auburn allowed two pass catchers, Eli Stowers (12/122) and Tre Richardson (3/124/1), to top 100 receiving yards. An OT touchdown that Auburn couldn’t match allowed the Commodores to escape 45-38.
Frank Wilson has the interim job for LSU, and his team did not fare nearly as well. He had a much tougher task: preparing his squad to go on the road and beat (4) Alabama in prime time. The Crimson Tide blitzed out to a 17-3 lead, but the LSU defense did a fantastic job from there on. They allowed just 3 second-half points, but the offense couldn’t capitalize. QB Garrett Nussmeier (18/21, 121 yards) completed a bunch of passes, but they were short and didn’t lead to points. Smith benched the touted QB in the third quarter for freshman Michael Van Buren Jr (5/11, 52 yards), who fared no better. LSU did not reach the end zone all game.
As has been the case for much of the year, LSU’s offense let their defense down. No matter who was at QB, they couldn’t move the ball. Despite Alabama’s offense going into hibernation, they never really felt threatened. This was one of the more routine 20-9 games I’ve seen in a while. Contrast LSU’s performance with that of Auburn. Regardless of their leaky defense, Auburn showed signs of life. They played hard and battled to the very end, whereas LSU didn’t even pretend to have a chance of winning. I’m not sure Freeze was the problem for Auburn, but Durkin energized them. Wilson isn’t doing the same for LSU.
Weekly CFP Update and Analysis
Somehow, I think the committee actually got most things right in their initial rankings. Many in the media are using analytics to claim that (3) Texas A&M should’ve been at the top, but that’s absurd. (1) Ohio State has been the clear best team in college football, and (2) Indiana’s resume backs their placement. Given the Hoosiers’ close call this week though, they and the Aggies could switch on Tuesday. A trio of 1-loss SEC teams follows them, and I’m fine with their order. (4) Alabama has been the hottest, while (5) Georgia beat (6) Ole Miss head-to-head. Of the top 10 teams, the SEC and Big Ten have seven of them.
Maybe (7) BYU should’ve been higher as a Power 4 team with 0 losses, but their poor showing against (8) Texas Tech will take care of that in short order. My biggest complaint is Notre Dame at 10. They’re the highest-ranked 2-loss team, but why? While they’re playing much better lately, that success has come against a mostly cupcake schedule. Among the Power 4 conferences, the ACC is in the most trouble. Their top-ranked school is (14) Virginia, who lost to Wake Forest due to a QB injury. (15) Louisville lost in OT to California as well. Unless chaos ensues, the ACC could be a one-bid league, with only its conference champion earning a berth.
Two schools that neither the AP nor the coaches poll ranked, (20) Iowa and (22) Missouri, made the CFP committee’s list, though both will be out due to their losses this week. A casualty of their placement is that zero Group of 6 teams earned a ranking. As a reminder, the top 5 conference champions earn bids, so one Group of 6 school is guaranteed a spot. The placeholder for that purpose in the initial rankings is Memphis, who the AP ranked at 22. Naturally, the Tigers lost at home to Tulane this week, giving them two AAC losses. That conference continues to see its teams beat each other up, giving others a chance to step in.
The main beneficiary of the AAC’s parity is James Madison. At this point, the 8-1 Dukes may be the leading Group of 6 Contender. Many soured on them after they lost to (15) Louisville, but the Cardinals’ surge makes that loss look better. Since then, JMU has battered their Sun Belt opponents. The Mountain West has just one hope: San Diego State. They and Boise State seemed poised to meet in the conference title game, but a 3-loss Broncos team isn’t getting into the CFP. SDSU at 7-2 is a better bet, but a weak schedule works against them. We’ll see if the committee ranks any of these teams so we can get a sense of their thinking.
Does This Draft Class Have Top-Shelf Talent at Any Position?
When the 2025 QB class was analyzed, most people had the same thought: it’s not very good, but wait for the amazing 2026 group. Several weeks ago, I poured some cold water on that idea. However, as I’ve investigated further, I began to notice that there are very few blue-chip players at any position, not just among the QBs. Teams at the top of the draft order are probably going to reach on QBs because of the value that position holds. One other factor may reinforce that line of thinking: the very best players in this class play positions that very few teams are willing to spend top 10 picks on, such as RB and safety.
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love is a favorite of most analysts. He’s viewed as a true 3-down back with speed, power, and passing game skills (catching and blocking). Few teams are willing to take an RB in round 1 though. Personally, I’m a fan of Ohio State S Caleb Downs. Starting with his time at Alabama, Downs has been a complete safety with ball skills, tackling ability, and instincts. Another favorite of mine is Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr, who’s an elite tackling machine. The key with all of these players is that most teams don’t value their positions in round 1 unless they’re elite. Even then, it’s usually in the back half of the round.
Thus, we need to determine if any high-end positions have players worthy of going in the top 10. Those include OTs, edge rushers, WRs, and CBs. Only one tackle makes the cut right now, and that’s Utah’s Spencer Fano. He’s a mountain of a man who moves surprisingly well. Fano mauls people in the run game, but his technique in pass protection needs to improve a bit. The clear-cut WR1 in this class is Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson. He’s big enough (6’1″) and fast enough with excellent ball skills. His QB is done for the year, so he might not get to showcase himself. If he balls out anyway though, his stock will rise even higher.
I don’t currently have a CB ranked in my list of best players. There are some first-round prospects, but nobody whose play screams “shutdown corner” to me. I’ve actually got two edge rushers for you: one from the talking heads and one from me. Auburn’s Keldric Faulk is long and super athletic, but I question his production (2 sacks in 2025). My top player at the position is Texas Tech’s David Bailey. After starring at Stanford in 2024, he’s leading the FBS with 11.5 sacks this season. As you can see, there are a few guys who might rise to the top of the board, but it’s slim pickings. Trading down from the top 10 seems smart.