2025 NFL Coach Hiring/Firing Grades
This is a centralized post for all coaching move-related grades (most recent first) now that 2025 has begun. Perfect way to celebrate Black Monday right? For those who aren’t aware, Black Monday is the Monday after the final week of the regular season. The teams that missed the playoffs decide whether to continue with the status quo or to make major moves to their coaching staffs and front offices. Here, I provide coach hiring/firing grades for each change made. Coordinators will be discussed only as part of a staff being hired with a head coach or when the situation is particularly notable. For GM moves, check out this page.
January 13, 2025
Cowboys Do Not Re-Sign Mike McCarthy as HC:
The game of “will he or won’t he” is done, as McCarthy’s contract will expire tomorrow without a new deal. Supposedly one source of the disconnect came from the desired contract length, with McCarthy understandably wanting more security after the drama of coaching on an expiring deal. This was completely mismanaged by Jerry Jones. He never should’ve made his coach perform in a lame-duck situation, but McCarthy handled it great. You can tell that the players, including influential stars like OLB Micah Parsons, wanted him back. What I had to assess for this grade was whether he SHOULD be back. His record, 50-38, is quite good, but it includes a 1-3 playoff record. I put no stock in this year’s 7-10 finish, as Jones bungled the roster and set the Cowboys up to fail. If anything, 7-10 was a quality result. McCarthy is a good coach, but playoff success matters. That said, how much of the postseason failings can we pin on him? QB Dak Prescott certainly shares in the blame, as does the formerly feared defense. If McCarthy is the one who severed the relationship, then I can’t grade Dallas harshly. However, if Jones messed up the negotiations, then this was a pretty big failure. At the very least, the team got a late start on its coaching search, which isn’t ideal.
Grade: C
January 12, 2025
Patriots Hire Mike Vrabel as HC:
Who saw this hire coming? Oh right…everyone. It was so obvious with Vrabel being a longtime Patriot as a player, but it also made the most sense among all potential options. Unlike Jerod Mayo, a former Patriot player with no head coaching experience, Vrabel has plenty. He had a good record in Tennessee despite often being handed a mediocre roster. I’ve noticed that he extracts the most out of the talent he has, especially on defense. Therein lies my one minor critique: I’d have preferred an offensive coach to develop QB Drake Maye if possible, but the big name (Lions OC Ben Johnson) probably wasn’t going to New England. Vrabel is a considerably better candidate than most of the other contenders; the Titans clearly erred when firing him after the 2023 season. If New England is going to rebound in the near future, owner Robert Kraft has to get this hire right. I believe he did.
Grade: A
January 6, 2025
Raiders Fire HC Antonio Pierce:
Pierce thought he was going to continue as Las Vegas’ coach as late as yesterday, but his meeting with owner Mark Davis led to the truth. Like the Jerod Mayo case, this was a hire that shouldn’t have been made. A 9-game interim coach really had no business getting the full-time gig without ever even being a DC at the NFL level. As expected, Pierce struggled. His game and clock management skills were poor, the defense (his calling card) regressed somewhat, and he couldn’t handle the QB situation. Admittedly, he was dealt a poor hand with the signal callers, but benching Gardner Minshew 3 times really served no purpose now did it? Davis will be paying for this contract for a few more years. With that in mind, should the team have just waited to see if he could grow into the role? That of course depends on who they think they can acquire…and who they actually sign. Chances are, the next coach will be an upgrade, especially if it’s someone like Mike Vrabel. New minority owner Tom Brady, a former teammate of Vrabel’s will have input here. Given the quality crop of potential options, cutting bait with Pierce was correct.
Grade: A-
January 6, 2025
Jaguars Fire HC Doug Pederson
We all saw this one coming. After a great start to his tenure and a remarkable turnaround following the Urban Meyer disaster, Pederson presided over quite the collapse of his own. His team started 8-3 in 2023 before imploding and missing the playoffs at 9-8. That was a precursor of things to come, as the Jaguars went 4-13 in 2024 amid another injury-filled campaign for QB Trevor Lawrence. It’s hard to say that this is all Pederson’s fault. However, his time in Philadelphia ended in a tumultuous manner as well. He also hasn’t done a good job selecting coordinators. Press Taylor and Ryan Nielsen are not viable offensive and defensive masterminds, respectively. Owner Shad Khan said that this is one of his most talented rosters, and he retained GM Trent Baalke. Something had to change though, and that left Pederson holding the bag. I don’t really think this does a lot without making changes elsewhere in the organization. Jacksonville will be better next year simply by being healthy. However, it’s undeniable that two teams regressed under Pederson’s watch, and Khan could not afford to let this situation devolve further.
Grade: A-
January 5, 2025
Patriots Fire HC Jerod Mayo
One team didn’t even wait until Black Monday to make their move. Despite winning their week 18 game and showing a lot of heart in 2 of their final 3 contests, the Patriots apparently didn’t do enough to save Mayo’s job. I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, this has been one of the worst teams in football, and Mayo didn’t do himself any favors with some of his media comments. On the other hand, he was dealt the worst roster in the game, and he only got one season to right the ship. How Mayo became the coach factors into this as well: he was the team’s co-DC and had a “head coach in waiting” clause in his contract, meaning that he was the guy as soon as Bill Belichick left. I was never convinced that Mayo was the right guy. However, if Robert Kraft thought he was just 12 months ago, what changed? Following a legend is really hard, and the expectations here couldn’t have been immense. Evidently, Mayo didn’t even meet those low standards. Fan anger and an ugly loss to the Chargers two weeks ago may have sealed his fate. The availability of another great Patriot defender like Mike Vrabel could also have played a role. I suppose it’s better to rectify a mistake rather than letting it drag on. Mayo’s hiring was a mistake, but the next step is critical.
Grade: B+