2025 NFL Schedule Release Takeaways
The much awaited 2025 NFL schedule has been released, and fans are already trying to determine whether their teams have a shot to win it all. Vegas has posted win totals for the 32 teams, and websites everywhere are poring over each detail hidden in these schedules. I’m not going to bother with any of that. I’ve looked at the schedules and the release itself, and I’ll share my top takeaways. If I didn’t touch on your team, their schedule is probably average. I tried to boil it all down to easy-to-comprehend, overarching notes to give you a sense of what’s in store. Predicting too much this early is probably foolish (but admittedly fun).
49ers Likely to Rebound; Vikings and Lions Might Regress
When you finish last in your division, one silver lining is that your schedule the following year is a last-place schedule. Typically, that means a softer slate. For several teams this year, that holds true, but nobody is going to benefit more than San Francisco. Based on strength of schedule, the 49ers rank dead last, meaning that they have the easiest set of opponents on paper. They “earned” that honor by losing due to injuries, not talent. With a healthier roster, albeit one with less proven players than last year’s edition, San Francisco should be able to capitalize on this schedule to make a playoff push.
Conversely, when you win a bunch of games, you tend to face harder opponents. That’s doubly true when your division is brutal. The Lions and Vikings, both members of the NFC North, face that problem. Green Bay is no pushover, and Chicago should be better next year as well. But it’s not just schedule difficulty that could lead to regression for these teams. Minnesota is switching from Sam Darnold to JJ McCarthy at QB. That’s almost assuredly a downgrade, and McCarthy has never started a game due to a knee injury that cost him his entire rookie season. Don’t be shocked if the Vikings are several games worse than last year’s outfit.
Detroit is suffering from major brain drain due to the loss of their coordinators. Former OC Ben Johnson is now coaching the Bears, while former DC Aaron Glenn is leading the Jets. As we saw with the 2023 Eagles, losing both of your primary coordinators can be devastating. I’m not saying that the Lions don’t have the coaching acumen on their staff to replace this guys. However, they were two of the best at what they did, and that’s hard to replace. Combine that with the league’s 3rd-hardest schedule, and you’ve got a recipe for a little disappointment. I still think Detroit will be very good though.
Heavyweight Tilts Could Offer Potential Conference Championship/Super Bowl Previews
Every season, we get a few games that could act as precursors to deep postseason rematches. I don’t recall this many fellow contenders playing each other during the same regular season though. The Eagles and Commanders playing each other twice is just a result of those teams sharing a division, but that’s just the start. Here, I’ll list some of the marquee matchups (on paper), but note that I’m using a strict definition of “contender”. Some strong playoff teams that theoretically could win it all don’t make the cut. That’s why you’ll see only a few teams among these games. It’s still surprising how many times they face off.
Immediately in week 1, we have the Bills hosting the Ravens and the Texans heading to LA to battle the Rams. Those first three teams were 3/4 of the AFC divisional round and are popular picks to get there again. Baltimore lost a heart-breaker to Buffalo during the 2024 playoffs and hope for revenge. Houston will play at Baltimore in week 5 and at home against Buffalo in week 12. All of these teams lost to the Chiefs at some point last season. KC is trying to reach a 4th straight Super Bowl, but will have major home AFC tests against Baltimore and Houston in weeks 4 and 14, respectively.
The Chiefs play at Buffalo in week 9 for an AFC championship rematch, which the Bills arguably deserved to win. Kansas City also has multiple games against NFC contenders, with none more exciting than a week-2 Super Bowl reprise against Philadelphia, this time at Arrowhead. Detroit goes to KC in week 7, and Washington heads there week 8. Side note: why do the Chiefs get nearly all of their hard games at home? The road seems much tougher for Kansas City to reach the big game yet again. However, if they manage to do so, they’ll have gotten there very much battle-tested.
Over in the NFC, the big matchups keep coming. Back to the Rams, that team came closest to knocking off the Eagles during the playoffs. Without a blizzard, they likely would’ve succeeded. A rematch comes in week 3, and LA will have two more tests in week 6 (at BAL) and week 15 (vs. DET). The Lions also face Baltimore (week 3) and Philadelphia (week 11), but their week 10 game at Washington is key. It was the Commanders that took the Lions out last year, mainly due to Detroit’s injured defense. Finally, a week-17 tilt between Philly and Buffalo could involve a pair of very popular Super Bowl picks. I can’t wait for all this action!
The Schedule-Makers Clearly Think Aaron Rodgers is Going to Be a Steeler
Part of me wrote this takeaway as an excuse to talk about Rodgers, because he inexplicably STILL hasn’t signed with Pittsburgh. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen though. The people making the schedule certainly believe he’s destined for the black and gold if the Steelers’ schedule is any indication. Their week 1 is nowhere else but MetLife Stadium to face the Jets, an immediate potential revenge game. With a new coaching staff and front office, Rodgers likely wouldn’t want to stick it to those guys. He would VERY much like to show up owner Woody Johnson, as the two did not get along at all.
If that weren’t enough, the Steelers play both the Packers and Vikings. That happens to be a coincidence, as this is the year that the AFC East plays the NFC North. When and where those games are scheduled raise some eyebrows though. Green Bay, another team Rodgers acrimoniously split with, goes to Pittsburgh for a game that is conveniently scheduled on Sunday Night Football. You could argue that the NFL simply thought these two teams, both playoffs squads from a year ago, would make for a good game. However, scheduling executive Mike North intimated that the potential for a Rodgers game was too sweet to pass up.
Finally, Minnesota is part of the Rodgers sphere of influence because it seems like that’s where he wanted to go. Had that happened, it would’ve been an exact replica of the Brett Favre arc, but the Vikings opted to go with 2024 1st-round pick JJ McCarthy. Much like the Jets, Minnesota could be on the receiving end of a Rodgers “prove-it” game for not choosing him. Thus, the fact that this game is being played in Ireland, the NFL’s first matchup in that country, is interesting. Once again, perhaps the league was just high on the Steelers and Vikings. Or maybe the Rodgers subplot was a driver of the decision.
Giants’ Unlucky Schedule Could Lead to the #1 Overall Draft Pick
A couple of takeaways ago, I said that usually a last-place schedule leads to an easier batch of games. The reason I didn’t say “always” is because of the mess the Giants find themselves in. In a terrible stroke of bad luck, New York possesses the hardest overall strength of schedule. First, the NFC East is uncharacteristically loaded. Washington and Philadelphia both reached the NFC Championship game last year, with the latter winning the Super Bowl. Even Dallas, whose record actually dropped the SoS number, is a hot pick to do better next year with the return of QB Dak Prescott.
New York then received a scheduling double-whammy. First, the NFC East plays the NFC North this year. In that division, Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay all reached double-digit wins and the playoffs. Chicago, the cellar dweller of the North, improved greatly in the trenches and at coach this offseason. All 4 of those games are tough. Out of the conference, the NFC East faces the AFC West, another division with 3 playoff teams in Kansas City, Denver, and the Chargers. Like Chicago, this division’s last-place team, Las Vegas, upgraded the team with coach Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith. No pushovers here either.
So what happens when one of the league’s very worst teams plays what is (on paper) the league’s hardest schedule? “Winning” is probably not the answer that comes to mind. The only two games that I’d give NYG close to a 50% shot at winning are in week 13 at New England and in week 5 at New Orleans. That Saints game could be hugely consequential, as with the retirement of QB Derek Carr, New Orleans is expected to be poor as well. Whoever loses that game could actually be a long-term winner, as they are my two favorites for the #1 draft pick. If 2026 is better than the 2025 class as expected, we might see some low-key tanking.
Two Minecraft-Themes Videos Walked into a Bar…
…and you already know that the Chargers won. Indianapolis and LA both employed the popular game (and now movie) for their schedule release videos. It’s a timely reference, so I’m not surprised about the choice. One team just managed it a lot better than the other. Indianapolis had to take their video down because they didn’t have permission from Microsoft to use the game that way. They also made a reference to Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill and his recent arrest, which was considered to be in poor taste. It’s a shame, as the video was otherwise pretty good. This is the internet, so you can still see the video here.
As usual though, the Chargers were the talk of the schedule release event. Their crew always puts out an animated short that is just stellar. Once again, they delivered. Beyond actually receiving permission from Microsoft before making the video, LA crafted the animation beautifully. Their references were humorous and spot-on. From the Janiel Dones Law Firm and Jameis Winston’s moon quote for the Giants to QB Anthony Richardson “running out of gas” for the Colts, the whole production was simply exquisite. I don’t think the Chargers are Super Bowl threats, but they’re clearly the best media team in the league.
SEVEN International Games in FIVE Different Countries
Is the NFL going a bit overboard with the international series? If you care about teams’ travel schedules or don’t like games starting at 9:30 AM on a Sunday morning, you probably think so. I happen to agree. I get that the league wants to grow its global audience, as doing so would be very lucrative. However, the travel schedule is ridiculously hard on teams (so much so that they often have their bye weeks right after their international games), and in every matchup, somebody has to give up a home game. Maybe that’s alright for the Jaguars (whose owner also owns Wembley Stadium in England), but not for the other 31 teams.
Week 1 features a return to Sao Paolo, Brazil, with the Chargers “hosting” the Chiefs. Last year, the Eagles and Packers played there, and it was awful. The game was great because both teams were good, but QB Jordan Love hurt his ankle on the awful field, security concerns forced the players to stay in their hotels, and Green Bay had a 2-hour ride from their hotel to the stadium. This country should not get NFL games. The next two matchups both feature the Vikings (as the road team). We talked about the first in Dublin earlier, and the second one in London (“at” Cleveland) isn’t much to write home about.
Our other two London games will include the Broncos at Jets and the Rams at Jaguars. The first one would have had an interesting subplot last year, with Denver coach Sean Payton taking a shot at the Jets. However, most of the people he targeted are gone, so that feud likely died down. Jacksonville is trying to be LA-lite. New coach Liam Coen and first-year GM James Gladstone are both former Rams, which makes sense. Finally, the Jaguars poached personnel from a well-run organization. In practice, the Rams should be heavy favorites, but seeing the new-look Jags should at least be fun.
The NFL returns to Berlin in week 10, with the Falcons facing the Colts. By that point, we’ll know whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones has claimed the Indy QB job and whether Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr is the guy they thought he was when they weirdly drafted him 8th overall in 2024. Finally, in week 11, the NFL makes its debut in Spain, with the Commanders and Dolphins playing in Madrid. Both of these teams should have exciting offenses, but I have no idea why we’re going somewhere that soccer has a stranglehold. Spain and Brazil are the places that make me think the NFL has gone a bit crazy with international games.
When Could Each of the Rookie QBs Make Their NFL Starting Debuts?
With all due respect to the rest of the positions on a football team, people pay the most attention to quarterbacks (by far). Since the schedule release comes shortly after the draft, rookie QBs specifically are on the minds of fans. So let’s take a look at when each of the rookie QBs selected in top 5 rounds will make their first starts. Some ground rules: first, this assumes that nobody is becoming a starter due to an incumbent’s injury (which very well could happen). Second, I’m only looking at QBs taken in the first 5 rounds, as the rest are not likely to play this year because they were selected as backups or long-term developmental options.
The #1 overall pick, Cam Ward, is going to start week 1. Tennessee claims to be having a competition, but we all know how this works. Is HC Brian Callahan really going to trot Will Levis out there again over his hand-picked rookie? Of course not. The other first-round QB, the Giants’ Jaxson Dart, is almost certain to not start immediately. The team wisely wants him to sit and learn behind Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, but the coach and GM are on the hot seat. With a late week-14 bye week, New York might turn to Dart by that point if the other options fail in an attempt to save some jobs.
Only one 2nd-round QB got taken, and that was Tyler Shough. Whether New Orleans knew that Derek Carr would retire or not, the future has shifted to the present. Shough will compete with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, but only one of those guys was personally selected by new HC Kellen Moore. As a rookie who will turn 26 early in his rookie year, Shough is expected to win the job and start week 1. In the 3rd round, Seattle oddly selected Jalen Milroe, who won’t be starting in 2024. Sam Darnold received just over $100M to be the guy, so expect Milroe to have some run game packages or no snaps at all.
The most interesting scenario (by far) is the one in Cleveland. They took two rookies: 3rd-rounder Dillon Gabriel and 5th-rounder Shedeur Sanders. Based on their skillsets, Gabriel projects as a backup, while Sanders could start. My sense is that Joe Flacco will start week 1, and he played really well for Cleveland in 2023. If he doesn’t have much left or the team struggles though, one of the youngsters could play (I don’t see a path for Kenny Pickett to start unless he beats Flacco immediately). By the week 9 bye, we should know where this team is headed. Should things fall apart, Sanders might claim the starting job he always wanted.