2025 College Football: Final CFP Picks

We’ve finally made it! All the games (except bowls) have been played, we know the conference champions, and we’re about ready to find out who made the CFP. Before the committee releases the official results, I wanted to share who I thought should be in and the order in which they should be ranked. I am most certainly not going to align with the CFP committee, and I’ll point out those cases where they arise. Unfortunately, my selections mean nothing in the real world of college football. It’s just fun to discuss, because everyone has their own opinion. Before we lay out my final CFP picks, let me lay out some ground rules.

First, these are seedings, not pure rankings (this only matters at the bottom of the list). Additionally, the top 5 conference champions must be in the top 12 (that’s a CFP rule). Next, nobody can fall out of the top 12 for losing an extra game that their competition didn’t play. Similarly, I won’t drop a team that lost this weekend below a team that didn’t play a 13th game. If I didn’t think a team belonged where the committee had them in the first place, then that supersedes the above rule. Finally, if a team was above the bye line last week, they can’t drop below #4 and lose that bye now. Got all that? Then let’s go!

1. Indiana Hoosiers (13-0, Big Ten Champions)

If you’re the only undefeated team in the nation and play in a Power 4 conference, you get the #1 ranking. The Hoosiers took a major step forward last season, and they somehow got even better in 2025. Curt Cignetti is a top-3 coach in the country at this point, and his team is extremely good. They did what no one else could this year: topple Ohio State. And they did it on the road no less! Indiana has a ferocious defensive front and a Heisman frontrunner in QB Fernando Mendoza. Highly balanced on both sides of the ball, the Hoosiers don’t have a real weakness on their roster. Nobody should be doubting them anymore.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, SEC Champions)

By winning the SEC title in such dominant fashion, the Bulldogs jump up to #2. They’re actually playing their best football at the perfect time. After starting the season a bit uncharacteristically on both sides of the ball, they’ve improved across the board in the weeks since. The lines of scrimmage look quintessentially “Georgia”, while the young secondary is growing by the game. Of all the teams on this list, UGA might be the one nobody wants to face. They’re incredibly balanced, the program is battle-tested, and they possess both talent and elite coaching. Only the very best can hang with these Dawgs.

3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1, Big XII Champions)

You won’t hear me talk about defense with any other team as much as I do with Texas Tech. They have a legitimate claim as the best in the country. It’s a top-3 defense for sure. In any case, the Red Raiders only lost one game this year. That came when starting QB Behren Morton was injured, so even their one blemish has an asterisk. With their starting signal caller, TTU is unbeaten this year, even if the offense isn’t the primary reason why. The team’s high-priced stop unit will determine how far this team can go. So far, they’ve won their first ever Big XII title. This bye guarantees their advance to at least the CFP quarterfinals.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, Big Ten At-Large Bid)

I really struggled with this one. OSU was guaranteed to not drop below the bye line based on my rules, but I actually wasn’t sure whether to drop them more than 1 spot. Slotting them below Indiana was a clear choice, but moving the best team in the country through 12 games 3 positions felt harsh. In the end, my choice came down to a desire to reward conference championships. While the committee seems to be dangerously close to devaluing those games, they’re still meaningful. If the real rankings have Ohio State higher than I do here, I won’t be upset by that. I was really splitting hairs with the 2nd- through 4th-ranked teams.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1, SEC At-Large Bid)

You might be surprised to see Ole Miss here and not Oregon. The departure of HC Lane Kiffin (and subsequent promotion of Pete Golding) could add to the shock of my ranking. However, I don’t demote a deserving team for a loss of a player or coach: their resume stands on its own. Furthermore, I’m not as high on the Ducks as the committee is. A decent defense combines with a high-powered offense to produce a very dangerous team. I think the Rebels can outscore anyone if they need to, and I expect their players to rally around their new coach. A feeling of betrayal can be a powerful motivator, and it might just propel Ole Miss.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1, SEC At-Large Bid)

As with the Ole Miss ranking, I also simply viewed Texas A&M more favorably than Oregon. I didn’t like them falling to the bottom rungs of the 1-loss ladder just because their lone loss came so late. That said, I also didn’t agree with the people who thought they should’ve been ranked first back when they were unbeaten. The Aggies are a very good team, with QB Marcel Reed looking improved this year and the defense being an opportunistic bunch. Without question, they deserve to be in the upper half of the bracket. I probably wouldn’t pick them in a neutral-site game against the teams ranked above them though.

7. Oregon Ducks (11-1, Big Ten At-Large Bid)

The Ducks’ “slide” ends here, with that word in quotes because I didn’t actually drop them even one slot from my previous personal ranking. For some reason, the committee LOVES this team. They only lost to the Indiana this year (the new #1 team). However, their OT win against Penn State looks much worse now, as does a squeaker against Iowa (who the committee also overrated at one point). Talentwise, the Ducks are near the top of the pack. Injuries and regression from QB Dante Moore have really neutered their offense though, and they might not have the defense to fully compensate for those shortcomings.

8. BYU Cougars (11-2, Big XII At-Large Bid)

I can explain this. A couple of key factors went into this ranking. First, I never had a one-loss Power 4 team like this below any of the two-loss teams that the committee put above them. For me, BYU was completely disrespected with their #11 official CFP ranking. Second and perhaps most critically, my longstanding rule that a team cannot be punished for losing an extra game ensured that the Cougars didn’t drop. If you recall, I made this exact argument for SMU last year. BYU is almost certainly not making the CFP, but they only lost to one team (twice). I’m going to agree to disagree with the committee on this one.

9. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, SEC At-Large Bid)

Putting the ugly nature of their week 14 win over LSU aside, the Sooners didn’t do anything that merited a drop below other two-loss teams in my opinion. Their defense is legit, and wins over Alabama, Michigan, and Tennessee have aged quite well. A hand injury suffered by QB John Mateer, however, really hampered their offense during the second half of the season. The unit showed signs of life against Tennessee and Alabama before crashing in the final two weeks. My task is to determine the best teams. If Oklahoma plays to their potential (which we’ve seen this year) or simply gets hot, they’ll be a tough out.

10. Miami Hurricanes (10-2, ACC At-Large Bid)

Yeah, I’m stuck dealing with the Miami vs. Notre Dame debate. Alabama’s loss in the SEC Championship game ensured that they couldn’t rise into the bracket (I had them 12th in case you were wondering, not 9th like the committee did). That left me with two teams for one spot. While I love what Notre Dame did in their final 10 games, they didn’t play many quality opponents, and they lost to the two good teams they faced. One of those happened to be Miami. Head-to-head results have to matter, so regardless of the Hurricanes’ midseason blip, they get the final at-large bid. They’re actually playing much better of late anyway.

11. Tulane Green Wave (11-2, AAC Champions)

Aside from #1, this was the easiest team to slot. We knew that Tulane and North Texas were fighting for an automatic bid, and Virginia’s loss ensured that it was the 11th seed. If you watched all of the Group of 6 conference title games, Tulane was clearly the most complete team of the bunch. They have the requisite size to compete against Power 4 opponents, and their running game is a legitimate strength. If any team from outside the Power 4 is going to win a CFP game this year, it’s the Green Wave. They probably hope my bracket comes to fruition though: their likely real opponent is Ole Miss, who crushed them earlier this year.

12. James Madison Dukes (12-1, Sun Belt Champions)

Duke’s victory in the ACC Championship game made the 12th and final spot come down to them, James Madison, and Boise State. The Blue Devils have 5 losses, and the Broncos have 4. I think it’s a clear-cut decision to put the Dukes in the bracket over Duke (singular). If there’s one knock on JMU, it’s that their schedule is pretty darn weak. However, their strength of victory is solid because they haven’t struggled to put inferior teams away. They’ve mostly dominated them. I like the Dukes’ defense and rushing attack, but I struggle to see them competing with a #5 team. It’s just nice to be able to slot two Group of 6 teams here.