2024 NFL Power Rankings: Kickoff Week Edition
The moment we’ve been waiting for is finally here. The Ravens and Chiefs kick off the 2024 season on Thursday in a much-anticipated matchup, but first, I thought I’d look at where the various teams stand on opening week. After all, we’ve now seen these teams in the preseason. Please don’t be mad if your favorite team is lower than you think they should be. Surprises happen every year, and nobody knows exactly what will occur. That’s what makes this all so fun! With that in mind, here are my kickoff week power rankings. You can find my post-draft 2024 NFL power rankings here, but I’ll also list teams’ prior rankings below.
32. New England Patriots (Previous Ranking: 32)
Has it gotten less weird to place the Patriots dead last? No; it hasn’t. That doesn’t change the facts. While Jacoby Brissett being named the starting QB raises the team’s floor, he wasn’t exactly effective during the preseason. This remains the league’s least-talented roster, and reinforcements are nowhere in sight. If anything, they’ve gotten worse with the trade of OLB Matt Judon. The coaching debut of Jerod Mayo will be a trying experience, but we’ll learn about him based on how his team operates. Their results will almost certainly be poor, but any growth and development will be viewed as positives.
31. New York Giants (Previous Ranking: 28)
QB Daniel Jones returned from injury, and…well…it wasn’t pretty. While we can attribute some of his performance to rust, it’s looking more likely that his one good season with HC Brian Daboll was an outlier. He finally got a weapon in rookie WR Malik Nabers, but RB Saquon Barkley is gone. I think Barkley can be replaced easily enough, yet I’m still not a believer in this attack. Defensively, the secondary is littered with holes, while only trade acquisition Brian Burns can be considered a true blue-chip talent. The 2024 season may sting, but the G-Men can wash their hands of Jones once it ends.
30. Carolina Panthers (Previous Ranking: 29)
Sorry Panthers fans, but until further notice, this team is still in the bottom tier. I saw some promising signs in game 3 of the preseason (the only contest featuring starters), but that came against Buffalo backups. I’m still concerned about the development and protection of QB Bryce Young, and rookie RB Jonathon Brooks is coming off an ACL tear. He will start the season on the PUP list. The defense could continue to overperform, while the offense simply needs to be adequate to qualify as a success. Alas, the NFC South got much tougher this offseason with Atlanta’s rise, making another last-place finish likely.
29. Los Angeles Chargers (Previous Ranking: 24)
I recognize that this ranking may feel surprising. Other analysts have been bold enough to suggest a playoff berth for LA’s other team. I am much more clear-eyed with regard to their outlook. The Bolts have two things going for them: QB Justin Herbert and new HC Jim Harbaugh. However, Herbert will be playing much of the season with an injured foot, while Harbaugh did not succeed at Michigan in his very first year. This is a rebuild whether people want to admit it or not, and it’s going to take some time. Residing in a division with the Chiefs probably won’t help matters either.
28. Arizona Cardinals (Previous Ranking: 27)
Continuing to remain one of the least-talented teams in the NFL isn’t going to raise your power ranking. Arizona went quantity over quality during free agency to address their offensive and defensive lines. I’d argue that they’re only marginally better in those areas. You can trust QB Kyler Murray if you want, but I won’t: not in terms of his health or his play on the field. It’s a shame because rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr is going to be fantastic. A brutal division featuring 3 other playoff contenders also dooms the Cardinals, who need some sort of reset before they’ll be competitive again.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (Previous Ranking: 22)
This is the part of our rankings where we take a big jump. Starting here, none of the teams moving forward are outright “bad”. Most of them are just slightly below average. Some even have major strengths; for LV, that’s the defensive line, which features DE Maxx Crosby and DT Christian Wilkins. That duo will terrorize QBs, but don’t sleep on Malcolm Koonce at the other DE spot, as he quietly had 8 sacks of his own last year. The secondary can’t defend much of anything though, and a Gardner Minshew-led offense will have limitations. A major RB downgrade from Josh Jacobs to Zamir White seals the Raiders’ fate.
26. Tennessee Titans (Previous Ranking: 25)
The Titans made a big splash this offseason with their free agency moves, but how much better are they? Sure, CBs Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed, WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard, and first-round LT JC Latham all help, but none of that matters if Will Levis isn’t the answer under center. New HC Brian Callahan is tasked with getting the most out of his young pupil, but shaky accuracy and decision-making aren’t easy to fix. Keep an eye on Brian’s dad, OL coach Bill Callahan. The man seems to drastically improve offensive lines wherever he goes, and I suspect it will be no different in Tennessee.
25. Washington Commanders (Previous Ranking: 31)
I shifted the Commanders considerably after the positive showing by rookie QB Jayden Daniels during the preseason. That was always going to determine this team’s outcome, and if he can be merely competent, Washington won’t be an easy victory for opponents. I love what the Commanders did in free agency, bringing in players like C Tyler Biadasz, LB Frankie Luvu, and G Nick Allegretti. Unfortunately, the secondary remains a train wreck, the pass rush is mediocre, and I don’t know who will catch passes aside from Terry McLaurin. New HC Dan Quinn is turning this team around though, one step at a time.
24. Minnesota Vikings (Previous Ranking: 26)
I promised to move the Vikings up if Sam Darnold was named the starter. This isn’t much of a move, but promise kept! There’s real talent on this roster, with WR Justin Jefferson being the main attraction. RB Aaron Jones was a great free-agent pickup, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The secondary will be bad as usual, and the pass rush won’t be as great without Danielle Hunter, even if rookie Dallas Turner pans out. A last-place finish in the NFC North is the expectation due to Chicago’s ascent, but the pieces are here to overachieve if everything goes right.
23. Denver Broncos (Previous Ranking: 30)
Similar to Washington, Denver is receiving a substantial ranking change due to developments in the QB room. HC Sean Payton made the smart decision, starting rookie Bo Nix over journeyman Jarrett Stidham. With 61 career starts in college, Nix might be the most experienced CFB signal caller ever. He looked great in preseason action, and his floor is very high. Unfortunately, there are holes all over the rest of the roster due to the cap stranglehold induced by the Russell Wilson trade. Aside from the Chiefs, the rest of the AFC West isn’t very good. That gives Denver an opening to win more during a rebuilding year.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Previous Ranking: 19)
Ranking the three-time defending NFC South champions this low feels a bit wrong. I just can’t help but feel like they only did well last year because their division was so bad, and their playoff win came against a collapsing Eagles team. The Bucs are statistically just an average team, and that won’t cut it this time. New Orleans has enough talent to pass them, and Atlanta is the clear class of the division. I still haven’t seen evidence that Tampa can run the ball, but the passing game is in surprisingly decent shape. This team is way too good to bottom out but not good enough to truly threaten the elites.
21. Indianapolis Colts (Previous Ranking: 20)
Another team I seem to be lower on than the media is, the Colts have a pretty high floor. This team was just a few plays away from being AFC South champions last year with Gardner Minshew at QB. However, the division is tougher this year. Jacksonville likely won’t implode, and even Tennessee is a tougher out. Second-year QB Anthony Richardson is the key to this operation, and I worry about him. He’s still incredibly raw, and the accuracy issues we saw at Florida are still around. Overall, this team can win 9 games or so. That might not be enough in a loaded AFC, just like last year.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (Previous Ranking: 15)
Despite throwing consecutive first-round picks at the issue, the Steelers haven’t managed to solve their offensive line woes. That led the QB “competition” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to be a dud, as neither had two seconds to throw. Wilson was named the starter, and that’s the right move for now. The defense is stellar, and it added LB Patrick Queen. If the line can run block, that part of the offense should be good. Pittsburgh just needs Wilson to run the offense and not make mistakes, i.e., be a better version of Kenny Pickett. If the plan is a disaster, Fields can always step in during the week-8 bye.
19. Seattle Seahawks (Previous Ranking: 23)
Before QB Geno Smith yells at me, let me start by saying that I’m not doubting him and the offense as many others are. While the interior of the offensive line does scare me a bit, I’m more concerned about the defense. Specifically, the front 7 looks like a glaring weakness. This is a team that already couldn’t stop the run, but can Seattle rush the passer either? DT Leonard Williams is listed as a DE in new HC Mike Macdonald’s 3-4 defense. That’s a nearly 300-lb interior player, so you see why I’m worried. The Seahawks hope that their young and talented secondary can carry the unit, but it won’t be easy.
18. Chicago Bears (Previous Ranking: 16)
The hype train in Chicago is already going strong, but I feel the need to say this: there will be growing pains. QB Caleb Williams, the #1 pick, is immensely talented, but even Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman had miserable rookie seasons. Williams certainly has the best supporting cast around him among all #1 QBs in history, but don’t expect instant domination. He could do well, but the team would be better served to rely on its ascending defense, which is anchored by DE Montez Sweat. Allowing the offense to grow organically without too much pressure feels to me like the best long-term strategy.
17. Cleveland Browns (Previous Ranking: 18)
Where to rank the Browns was one of my biggest challenges. The roster as a whole is spectacular, and they’re coming off an 11-win playoff season. Deshaun Watson though. The enigmatic, overpaid QB prevents me from fully buying into this squad. He has looked considerably worse than he did in his Houston days, and Cleveland was objectively a better team with Joe Flacco. RB Nick Chubb is coming off a brutal knee injury, so Watson can’t lean on him as much either. The rest of the team is great, so they should be at least decent as a whole. You just can’t have a $230M signal caller dragging everyone else down.
16. New Orleans Saints (Previous Ranking: 21)
A spot at the very center of these rankings seems very appropriate. The Saints are the quintessential average team. Their defense is good but no longer great due to some aging stars. Offensively, WR Chris Olave, RB Alvin Kamara, and QB Derek Carr are good players, but the line is in shambles because of injuries (RT Ryan Ramczyk) and poor draft picks (LT Trevor Penning). Coach Dennis Allen probably needs a playoff appearance to keep his job, and that’s entirely possible in a weak division. For New Orleans to rank higher, I’ll need to see more rhythm out of the offense and some turning back the clock by the defense.
15. Green Bay Packers (Previous Ranking: 13)
People are REALLY bullish on the Packers this year. Many are picking them to win the division and maybe even the Super Bowl. I’d like to throw a little cold water on all that. This is a young, likely ascending team, but with all that youth comes questions that we can’t simply gloss over. For all the money and accolades that QB Jordan Love is receiving, he’s still a 1-year starter. DC Jeff Hafley was a good hire, but can he fix a perennially underperforming and inexperienced defense? Finally, will RB Josh Jacobs rebound after a tough year in Las Vegas? The answers to those questions will determine if GB returns to the postseason.
14. Buffalo Bills (Previous Ranking: 14)
I’m standing by my projection that the Bills will not only lose the AFC East but also miss the playoffs entirely. There are only so many challenges one team can overcome. Buffalo lost both starting safeties in free agency. LB Matt Milano tore his bicep and will miss most if not all of the season. Then there’s the biggest issue: who is going to catch passes this year? Rookie Keon Coleman needs to be an immediate star, and the rest of the WR room has to seriously overachieve. This team hasn’t just fallen farther behind the Chiefs; they’re probably worse than the Dolphins and Jets as well (though they often beat Miami).
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous Ranking: 17)
Seeing the excellent preseason showing from the Jaguars’ starters, I realized that I may have been a bit too harsh in my last rankings. Yes, this team stupidly lost WR Calvin Ridley by waiting too long to re-sign him. It’s also true that they went 1-5 to end the 2023 season. The Jags have just shown us a little too much to destroy our confidence in them. They won a playoff game the prior season, and even with their collapse, they finished a respectable 9-8. With better health, Jacksonville can contend for the AFC South crown once again, but a certain team stands in their way.
12. Houston Texans (Previous Ranking: 8)
This team in particular. Houston’s drop here should not be viewed as pulling back on my belief in them. It’s more of a compliment toward the teams that moved ahead. The Texans probably overachieved a bit last year, but they’re for real. A loaded WR room added Stefon Diggs via trade, and DE Danielle Hunter was brought in during free agency to pair with 2nd-year rusher Will Anderson. QB CJ Stroud is being put in the best possible position to avoid a sophomore slump, and I think he will. He has the ability to keep this franchise relevant for the next decade in ways that Deshaun Watson never could.
11. Los Angeles Rams (Previous Ranking: 7)
Whereas I didn’t lose any faith in Houston, I do have a couple more questions about LA. The same depth issues we discussed last year still apply, and I doubt WR Puka Nacua is sneaking up on anyone this time around. Former DT Aaron Donald did not change his mind about retirement, which is as big a hole to fill as any league-wide. I like 2nd-round DT Braden Fiske, but he’s not Donald. Still, when you have Sean McVay as your coach, Matthew Stafford as your QB, and Nacua and Cooper Kupp as your WRs, you can compete with anybody. This is still a playoff team, but they once again have little margin for error.
10. Atlanta Falcons (Previous Ranking: 12)
Already the most-improved team in the league by virtue of the Kirk Cousins signing, Atlanta got even better in the past month. Trading for OLB Matt Judon and signing S Justin Simmons were strokes of genius. They addressed the weaker side of the ball and arguably converted it to a strength. The Falcons have weapons offensively, including WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson to name a few. They just haven’t had a QB who could use good players effectively. Until now. These are your clear NFC South favorites, and Atlanta might be able to dream even bigger than that.
9. New York Jets (Previous Ranking: 11)
Is everything alright in Florham Park? QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be fully back, and the offense should be great if he stays healthy. I’d say the same about the defense, but OLB Haason Reddick is still AWOL. The Jets’ D is talented enough to excel even without Reddick, but having him would bring it to another level. This is a “deep playoff run or bust” type of season (if not Super Bowl or bust), so it’s really an all-hands-on-deck type of situation. On paper, this is the best team the Jets have had in decades. You don’t win anything on paper though, and we’ll find out soon if they can back up the hype.
8. Miami Dolphins (Previous Ranking: 10)
The injury front seems to be improving for Miami, with OLB Jaelan Phillips returning early from an Achilles tear. Fellow rusher Bradley Chubb should also be back after a 4-week PUP stint caused by his rehab from an ACL tear. New DC Anthony Weaver is untested, but he inherits a good deal of talent. I have no concern over the offense. The Miami track team is at full capacity, and they can outrun basically every other team in the league. Could 2024 finally be the year the Dolphins win a playoff game? Winning the AFC East would be a good springboard, and the ‘Fins are explosive enough to do so.
7. Baltimore Ravens (Previous Ranking: 5)
After watching a total of zero preseason snaps by Baltimore’s starters, we can’t really make any new judgments about them. We do, however, know that RB Derrick Henry is in, and LB Patrick Queen, S Geno Stone, and three (former) starting offensive linemen are out. That is a LOT of turnover at spots where you really want stability. I’ve gone over my doubts about QB Lamar Jackson in the playoffs already, but I’ll just say that this may be the best regular-season team in the league if they play to their ability. Once the postseason hits, the real test begins. I expect the Ravens to have a chance to answer the doubters.
6. Dallas Cowboys (Previous Ranking: 6)
It’s amazing what a difference a week makes. The sky was falling in Dallas, but now that WR CeeDee Lamb has signed an extension and is back in the fold, optimism abounds. Maybe it’s a bit of bravado, as QB Dak Prescott and HC Mike McCarthy are both entering the final year of their deals and might not be back if this season isn’t a roaring success. With so much riding on this campaign, there’s a ton of pressure on Dallas to win multiple playoff games. Given how inactive they were in free agency, they aren’t as talented as they were last year. They’re still very good, but a deep postseason run is a tall order.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (Previous Ranking: 9)
What happened to make me leap the Eagles four spots and above Dallas? It has nothing to do with QB Jalen Hurts better meshing with new OC Kellen Moore. I’m not more bullish on RB Saquon Barkley than I was before. This isn’t even related to my newfound confidence in the defense, where rookie DB Cooper Dejean has looked great and the front 4 are elite. Their rise is axiomatic: no team has won the NFC East in back-to-back years since 2004. Dallas won it last year, while the Giants and Commanders have no shot. Thus, Philly is guaranteed to win it, so they must be above Dallas. Easy right?
4. Cincinnati Bengals (Previous Ranking: 4)
Another offseason, another injury return for QB Joe Burrow. His health will determine how far the Bengals go, as is the case with most teams. At least he should start the season healthy for once. One other issue is front and center though: WR Ja’Marr Chase and his hold-in situation. I nearly bumped the Bengals up a slot, but Chase missing time and being out of sync with the offense would be a terrible outcome. I love what Cincy did on defense, bringing back S Vonn Bell and signing S Geno Stone away from the rival Ravens. If this secondary is back in 2022 form, no other team is better equipped to challenge the Chiefs.
3. San Francisco 49ers (Previous Ranking: 3)
San Francisco finally got WR Brandon Aiyuk under contract and in attendance. I nearly dropped the Niners a spot (see the Bengals above) due to the holdout of LT Trent Williams, but we just learned that the two sides have struck a deal! The league’s very best tackle would have been sorely missed. We’ve discussed how SF struggled on the right side of the line; they may still, but the team couldn’t have afforded to also have questions on the left side. For at least one more season, the gang is back together, and with a slowly closing window, it may be now or never for the 49ers to go win a ring.
2. Detroit Lions (Previous Ranking: 2)
No top-tier contender fortified themselves as much as the Lions did. With a major weakness in the secondary, the Lions drafted two DBs in the first two rounds of the draft. Then, needing another WR, Detroit signed two notable names to the practice squad: Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson. Patrick will be promoted when he becomes more familiar with the team, and it’s worth kicking the tires on Robinson. Assuming that their moves work out, the Lions have no notable holes on their roster. I can’t find a more complete, battle-tested team in the entire NFL. Well, except for maybe one other…
1. Kansas City Chiefs (Previous Ranking: 1)
They’re the champions until they’re not. This is my refrain every time I write up the #1 team in my early-season rankings. I’m sticking to it, but do we really have a reason to boot QB Patrick Mahomes and co. anyway? KC has won the past two Super Bowls because their core is so outstanding. Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, DT Chris Jones, and HC Andy Reid are the most fearsome foursome in football. Losing CB L’Jarius Sneed hurts, but the Chiefs have depth. They also addressed their two weaknesses: WR (Hollywood Brown/Xavier Worthy) and OT (2nd-round rookie Kingsley Suamataia). Watch out.