2024 College Football: Week 14 Takeaways
Welcome to rivalry week, where familiarity and contempt can breed unusual results. Two coaches are already out, with UNC firing Mack Brown and UCF’s Gus Malzahn leaving to take the FSU OC job. Poor Kent State became the only FBS team to finish 0-2. At the high end, (3) Texas, (9) SMU and (16) Arizona State took care of business, while three top-12 teams fell in upsets. As this was the last week of the regular season, many teams played their final games of 2024. Others are just getting started, with playoff positioning on the ling. Below are my week 14 takeaways; conference championship games are up next!
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate Sees Its Longest-Ever Iteration
Leave it to rivalry week to offer us one more contender for game of the year. (7) Georgia knew to be wary of Georgia Tech, as the Yellow Jackets upset Miami a few weeks ago. Still, the Bulldogs were the more talented team and had a 30-game home winning streak. Maybe that motivated Ga. Tech, as they looked sharp from the beginning. Despite a failed 4th-down attempt at the UGA 25 and a missed 25-yard FG, the Yellow Jackets took a 17-0 halftime lead with great defense and a heroic effort from QB Haynes King (26/36, 303 yards, 2TDs; 24/110/3 rushing). Georgia only had one good first-half drive, and it ended on downs.
King was a true warrior. Nursing various injuries, he nonetheless put his body on the line repeatedly. He accounted for 5 total TDs and fought through contact on every play, even earning the respect of Georgia HC Kirby Smart after the game. Unless you can keep up your momentum though, great teams can come back from the dead. That’s exactly what the Bulldogs did. UGA allowed 10 second-half points and scored 27 of their own. QB Carson Beck, who began the game terribly, finished with 297 yards and 5 TDs. RB Nate Frazier (11/50/1) was a physical machine and started to wear down the Georgia Tech defense.
Ga. Tech RB Jamal Haynes (13/91, rec. TD) and WR Eric Singleton Jr (8/86/1) gave King just enough support to withstand Georgia’s assault and reach OT. Both teams scored TDs during the first overtime period, and they did so again in the second frame, but neither made their 2-point conversion. The game remained tied at 40 as the teams alternated two-point attempts, with neither making any in 2OT, 3OT, or 4OT. In 5OT, both teams converted, but UGA WR Arian Smith dropped a game-winner in 6OT. Following 3 more misses, Frazier walked it off on a running play in 8OT, giving the home team a 44-42 win.
This game meant a lot more to Georgia. The Bulldogs are now basically assured a CFP spot regardless of their performance in the SEC title game. Taking that pressure off could aid UGA in their conference title quest, while having been tested (yet still extending that home streak to 31) may serve them well in the long run. I do want to give the Yellow Jackets their due though. They played some seriously inspired football and might be the best 7-5 team in the nation. Had King not missed a few games, who knows what they could’ve accomplished? Regardless, coach Brent Key is building this program the right way, and it shows.
Rivalry Games Bring Out the Best in Michigan and South Carolina
Every year, at least a few games end with highly touted teams falling to lesser foes. Our major stunner of the week was (2) Ohio State falling to Michigan, last year’s national championship winner that lost a ton of talent (including their coach) to the NFL. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day heard all year about losing 3 games in a row to their archrivals, so I can only imagine the heat he’s feeling after their 4th straight loss to the Wolverines. The disturbing part to me is that OSU never really seemed to have the upper hand. They played a defensive struggle against a defensive football team and came up short.
The OSU defense was really good. Michigan QB Davis Warren, who has struggled all year, completed 9 of 16 passes for just 62 yards and 2 INTs. RB Kalel Mullings ran for 116 yards and a TD, but he needed 36 carries to do so. Michigan’s defense just played even better despite facing a more talented opponent. Buckeyes QB Will Howard (19/33, 175 yards, TD, INT) had a game to forget, and his first INT set up Michigan’s only TD. In a 13-10 game, the Buckeyes’ two missed FGs didn’t help, but the game should never have been close enough for that to matter. OSU’s meltdown means they won’t even be playing in the Big Ten title game.
In the “Palmetto Bowl”, (12) Clemson welcomed (15) South Carolina in an attempt to prove themselves worthy of a playoff spot. We actually expected this contest to be competitive, and it was. These teams, both of which are known for their defenses, knew that scoring would be at a premium. When SC fumbled on their first position, it felt like a bad omen. Their defense stepped up though and forced a punt. The teams combined for 11 punts, 3 lost fumbles, 2 INTs, and 0 passing TDs. Both QBs, LaNorris Sellers (16/166/2) of the Gamecocks and Cade Klubnik (10/62/2) of the Tigers, excelled on the ground and scored every TD in this game.
Down 14-10 late, South Carolina forced a clutch 3-and-out from Clemson, and Sellers put his team on his back. He scored a 20-yard rushing TD to give the Gamecocks their first lead of the game. Klubnik proved unable to respond, but he almost did. He quickly got the Tigers down to the SC 18 with 16 seconds left, but instead of setting up a tying FG, Clemson went for the win. I respect that, but Klubnik threw a game-sealing pick. Miami’s loss later in the day saved their bacon, as the Tigers can still make the CFP with an ACC title, which they can now play for. Conversely, I’ve seen enough to give SC an at-large bid. They’ve earned it.
How Did Conferences’ New Teams Fare This Year?
Much like last season, we saw numerous teams switch their loyalties among the 10 FBS conferences (9 if you don’t count the Pac-2 until it rebuilds). One school made the jump from the FCS to Conference USA. Six different conferences added new members, so now that the regular season is over, I wanted to take a look at how these teams fared. Did they step in and dominate their new leagues, or was the jump in competition too much to handle? The conferences below are listed in alphabetical order.
AAC: This conference lost one team (SMU) but gained Army, who left the ranks of the independents. Maybe all the Black Knights needed was some structure. Army finished 10-1 and a perfect 8-0 in conference play. The team will play for the AAC title next week. Aside from an ugly loss to (5) Notre Dame, which was honestly expected, the Black Knights have exceeded all expectations.
ACC: The ACC added an eclectic trio of schools. SMU was the big fish here. The Mustangs took a terrible media rights deal to move to a Power 5 conference, but they definitely belong. They are 10-1 and undefeated in ACC games; SMU plays in the ACC championship next week. Two former Pac-12 teams, California and Stanford, joined the conference because of academic alignment; geography definitely played no role. Cal went 2-6 within the conference but 6-6 overall. Stanford fared much worse, finishing with a 3-9 record and often looking even worse than that record suggests.
Big Ten: No other conference saw the same influx of talent as that enjoyed by the Big Ten. Washington, the second-place finisher in the national title game last season, finished 6-6. I’d argue that their regression was due to a loss of talent to the NFL and their coach to Alabama, not their conference shift. USC, who also went 6-6, definitely struggled against their harder opponents. The same goes for 5-7 UCLA. They aren’t perennial powerhouses by default here. Oregon was ready for their move, and they have dominated. The Ducks are 11-0, ranked #1, and the favorites to win it all. This team is a problem for the rest of the Big Ten.
Big XII: After losing Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, the Big XII added 4 teams from the Pac-12. Arizona and Utah, at 4-8 and 5-7, respectively, are two of the biggest disappointments in college football. Utah can use yet another injury to QB Cam Rising as an excuse, but what about the Wildcats? They merely underperformed. Colorado did very well, but we expected improvement from Coach Prime’s team this year. Arizona State was the biggest surprise. The Sun Devils, picked to finish near the bottom of the standings, will instead play for the conference title as the Big XII’s top-ranked team. They would claim a CFP spot with a win.
Conference USA: Only one new team joined C-USA, and that’s Kennesaw State. Given that I dedicated an entire takeaway to their upset victory as a previously winless team, you can guess how their season went. Jackson State and James Madison have recently shown us that FCS teams can compete right away at the FBS level, but the Owls could not do so. At 2-10, they were one of the worst teams in the country, but they did notch their pair of wins against conference foes. Better times are ahead, but growing pains are clearly a part of this transition.
SEC: Several years of waiting later, the SEC finally added ballyhooed arrivals Oklahoma and Texas from the Big XII. Both teams were known for poor defenses, so we all wanted to see how they’d adapt to a rugged conference. Surprisingly, both schools formed formidable stop units. In Oklahoma’s case though, the offense failed to come with the rest of the team. QB and coaching issues led to a 6-6 record, but a resounding win over Alabama was nice. Texas is one of the country’s most talented teams. They are CFP locks at 11-1 and will play Georgia for the league title next week.
As we saw last year, predicting which teams would excel in their new conferences was a fool’s errand. While we accurately forecasted Oklahoma and USC as teams that were likely to struggle, nobody saw the success of Arizona State coming. Similarly, Arizona was not expected to decline. Impressively, 5 of the 15 teams that moved are playing for conference titles. Five of the six conferences possess such a team. Despite the chaotic nature of realignment, we really are enjoying a lot of great football as a result. The landscape will continue to change, so please don’t take what we have now for granted.
Weekly CFP Update and Analysis
Buckle in, because two straight weeks of complete chaos have upended the rankings. Once again, the top 4 did not change. However, (2) Ohio State’s loss means that this group will shuffle on Tuesday. Given their high ranking coming into the week, I still think OSU makes the CFP easily despite not even making the Big Ten title game. All of the top 5 teams should be in the CFP regardless of what happens next week. (6) Miami, whose defense imploded again to fall out of ACC title contention, is now worried. They should be in pretty good shape, but it would help if (9) SMU (who is in regardless) wins the ACC.
A conference championship is Clemson’s only CFP path due to a loss of their own. Georgia’s comeback win and Tennessee’s normal win should have both schools in the playoff. You wonder what would happen to a 3-loss Georgia team in the event of an SEC title game defeat, but I don’t believe a team should be penalized for reaching one of these championship games. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin expressed this fear several weeks ago, and I really hope that they’re unfounded. Speaking of the 14th-ranked Rebels, I don’t believe they can make the CFP. Their win this week wasn’t good enough, and they’d have to jump too many teams.
(10) Indiana dropped after losing to OSU, but I can’t fathom a 1-loss Big Ten team missing the cut, so the Hoosiers should be in. (11) Boise State is in the same situation as usual: win the Mountain West or be left out. (13) Alabama is a complete wild card. They have two awful losses (3 total), but the committee always seems to give them the benefit of the doubt. Still, they need a lot of help to jump to 11 or higher (i.e., above the automatic qualifier that will be seeded 12th). (15) South Carolina seems too far down, but they a great this week by taking out #12 Clemson, and they’re red hot. I’d include them.
The only teams below #15 that even have a prayer are (16) Arizona State, (18) Iowa State, and (22) UNLV. (17) Tulane ruined their hopes with a loss to Memphis, and the AAC’s dreams die with them. (20) Texas A&M looked awful in a loss to Texas, and an SEC title was their only chance regardless. ASU, ISU, and UNLV all won to advance to their conference title games, which are their only routes to the CFP. The Sun Devils and Cyclones are competing for one spot, while the Rebels and Broncos are competing for another. Based on their current rankings, no other conference can jump ahead of the Big XII and Mountain West.
Top QBs Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward vs. the 2024 Prospects
Most analysts agree that Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are the top QB prospects in the 2025 draft class. That order, with Sanders ahead of Ward, is mostly agreed upon but not set in stone. These players are both Heisman candidates, though they have fallen behind Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty. Rather than focusing on that, I wanted to get a sense of how Sanders and Ward compare to the 2024 QB class. Last year, we saw an unprecedented 6 passers taken within the first 12 picks. I’m not expecting that this year, even with the way in which QBs are overvalued. Only two are projected to be taken in the top 10.
Yahoo Sports and Fox Sports personality Jason Fitz has asked a multitude of people about the class. The universal conclusion as that the best players in the 2025 class are behind all 6 of the first-rounders from 2024. Is that fair though? I’m not so sure. I personally put both Sanders and Ward behind Caleb Williams, who was the clear top QB last year. As prospects, I’d consider Sanders less risky than either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. He brings elite football IQ, supreme accuracy, and great leadership. Ward is quite similar to Daniels and arguably better than Maye. All of them have mobility, but Ward is superior from the pocket.
I would rank both Sanders and Ward ahead of the other 3 QBs taken last year: Michael Penix Jr, JJ McCarthy, and Bo Nix. Penix had accuracy concerns, which Sanders does not. Ward isn’t the most accurate guy in the world, but he’s not bad. McCarthy never impressed me as a prospect, so my statement here is less about the 2025 players and more about him. Nix is actually a pretty good comp for Sanders in that both are point producers who excel based on accuracy and rhythm. Each is more athletic than expected, but I think Sanders has more upside. Potential is Ward’s draw, as his skill set gives him a sky-high ceiling.
While I fully agree with the notion that the 2025 QB class is a weak one, I don’t think you can say that the entire group is below every highly-rated prospect from 2024. Players like Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck have seen their stock drop while Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe weren’t very impressive to begin with. The two names to watch, at least for now, are Sanders and Ward. They have separated themselves from the pack, and NFL teams will fall in love with them even if it’s only because of scarcity. When all is said and done, at least one of them is likely to exceed their 2024 counterparts at the NFL level.