2024 College Football: Week 13 Takeaways
Just two weeks remain in the regular season, and some teams are living dangerously. (4) Penn State, (12) Boise State, and (22) Iowa State all had close calls but survived to tell the tale. Others, who we’ll get to below, weren’t nearly as lucky. There’s a bit more room for error under a 12-team playoff format, but for anyone ranked in the teens, it feels just like the 5th- to 8th-ranked teams did in 2023. Other teams, such as Nebraska, punched their bowl tickets this week with their 6th wins. Get comfy; we’re in for a wild ride as this race heats up. Enjoy my week 13 takeaways, and have a happy Thanksgiving later this week!
And Then There Was One (Undefeated Team)
We entered week 13 with three unbeaten teams: (1) Oregon, (5) Indiana, and (19) Army. The Ducks got the week off, but the other two found out what happens when you play a blue blood. First, Indiana went to (2) Ohio State with many doubters. The Hoosiers hadn’t played many teams of note prior to this game. We wanted to know whether they’re for real. After watching this game I can say…maybe? Things started off great. The defense forced a 3 and out, and the offense went down and scored a TD. Unfortunately that would be Indiana’s only lead of the game. In a 38-15 game, these teams weren’t as far apart as you’d think though.
To me, special teams cost Indiana the game. With the score tied 7-7, the Hoosiers punted from their 30. At least, they tried to punt. P James Evans dropped the snap and had to fall on it at his own 7. The Buckeyes scored 3 plays later. At the start of the 3rd quarter, Evans punted for real, but OSU’s Caleb Downs knifed through the defense for a 79-yard return TD, and Indiana never recovered from the 21-7 deficit. QB Kurtis Rourke (8/18, 68 yards, FUM) had his worst day of the season, but this was still a 24-15 game if we take the punting game out of it. Indiana is still CFP-quality, but OSU is better.
Later in the day, Army faced (6) Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. As with Indiana, the Black Knights had a weak schedule (extremely weak in fact). That is the likely reason for their low ranking as a 9-0 team, but they too had a chance to prove themselves. They proved something alright: Army isn’t at Notre Dame’s level. For the first time all season, the Black Knights failed to earn a first down on their opening possession. The Irish then barraged them with 14 points, as QB Riley Leonard (10/13, 148 yards, 2 TDs) didn’t throw an incompletion until the end of the half, and the running game averaged 9.4 yards per carry.
Army showed grit by scoring a TD to cut the lead in half, and they even stopped the Irish on downs at the 1. However, they couldn’t convert that momentum into offensive output, as they immediately went 3 and out, and Notre Dame got back on track with another score. The Irish rattled off 35 straight points, and they allowed just one garbage-time TD in their 49-14 demolition. Army ran for over 200 yards but at just 3.6 yards per clip. Once they got behind, they had no chance as they aren’t built to play catch-up. I expect the Black Knights to be booted from the top 25, which is a shame. This has been a great season nonetheless.
(7) Alabama, (9) Ole Miss Out of Mulligans; (15) TAMU on Life Support
This Saturday was not a very good day to be a 2-loss SEC team. Early in the day, Ole Miss, fresh off a beatdown of Georgia, went to the swamp to face Florida, who also had a big win last week. Telling a team that its coach will be returning next year can be invigorating, and that seems to be the case for the Gators. They matched the Rebels exactly through 3 quarters and scored the only points in the 4th frame to score a 24-17 upset. That victory makes Florida bowl-eligible, but the real story here is the #9 team taking a 3rd loss. All 3 have come against inferior teams, so the CFP committee won’t overlook them.
One team that had a worse time was Alabama. We’ve talked at length about how disappointing Oklahoma has been this year. This should have been an easy win for the Crimson Tide. Instead, QB Jalen Milroe ruined it. In his worst outing to date, Milroe missed countless throws and was reckless with the football. Including garbage-time production, he went 11/26 for 164 yards and 3 INTs, putting up just 3 points in a 24-3 loss. For those who have him as a first-round pick: please stop. Oklahoma showed that if you spy him and mitigate his rushing threat, he’s not a very good pocket passer. Alabama now has 3 bad losses as well.
Texas A&M played the best of these three teams, but they also had the most heartbreak. Against a 4-6 Auburn team fighting for a bowl spot, the Aggies dug a 21-0 hole with an INT, a missed field goal, and poor defense. Auburn actually scored TDs on each of their first 3 drives. TAMU roared to life though and scored 21 unanswered points of their own. They clamped down on the Tigers, allowing QB Marcel Reed (22/35, 297 yards, 3 TDs, INT; 21/66 rushing), WR Noah Thomas (5/124/2), and RB Amari Daniels (27/90/1) chip away. Eventually, the game went to OT while tied at 31. Both teams then went TD-FG in the first two periods.
In 3OT, neither team could convert a 2-point try. However, during the 4th overtime period, Auburn scored, whereas Daniels dropped a catchable pass. That handed the Tigers a 43-41 win and dropped the Aggies to 8-3. Despite being ranked lower than either Alabama or Ole Miss, Texas A&M is in the best shape because this is only their 2nd conference loss. This is all great news for (10) Georgia, who has clinched a title game berth. The Aggies play (3) Texas next week in a game that will determine the other participant. Both face win-and-in scenarios, but unlike the Longhorns, TAMU cannot reach the CFP without an SEC title anymore.
Big XII Chaos Leaves Conference with Just 1 Potential CFP Berth
When (12) Boise State jumped past (14) BYU in this week’s rankings, the fate of the Big XII was sealed. The committee made it clear that this conference did not impress them. I wonder what they’ll think on Tuesday after what transpired in week 13. One major problem for the Big XII is that formerly 2-6 Kansas is wreaking havoc. Coming off wins against both Iowa State and BYU in succession, the Jayhawks resembled the team that earned a preseason ranking. As hot as (16) Colorado has been though, I don’t think they were too worried. They very much should have feared Kansas.
KU, playing at Arrowhead Stadium while their home undergoes renovations, punched the Buffaloes in the mouth to start the game. They scored the contest’s first 17 points, riding star RB Devin Neal (37/207/3; 4/80/1 receiving). To their credit, Colorado responded with a 14-3 run to cut the deficit to 20-14, but Kansas bounced back and refused to relent, running away with a comfortable 37-21 win. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders (23/29, 266 yards, 3 TDs; 4/26 rushing) played great, but the running game and defense were horrible (he led the team in rushing). He also probably should’ve been ejected for shoving an official.
Kansas winning their third-straight game against a ranked conference opponent wasn’t the craziest aspect of the Big XII slate this week. Coming off their first loss, BYU had to go on the road to face a sizzling (21) Arizona State team. The Sun Devils had a fantastic start, scoring the game’s first 21 points and leading 21-3 at the half. BYU looked flat, as if their plummet in the CFP rankings had deflated them. As with Colorado, the Cougars made a late charge and got within 5 points of ASU (28-23). On one of their potentially magical final drives, QB Jake Retzlaff (22/38, 297 yards, TD, 2 INTs) threw an INT that was returned to the BYU 7.
The Cougars retained two timeouts, so the Sun Devils could not kneel on the ball. I might’ve tried to score, but after a 4-yard run, they had QB Sam Leavitt (16/25, 247 yards, TD, INT) run 26 yards backward to waste time. Following another -10-yard run and two delays of game, ASU faced 4th and goal from the 49 with 7 seconds left. Leavitt heaved the ball out of bounds, and the clock hit 0:00. Fans stormed the field, but a review showed that 1 second remained. After a 20-minute delay to clear the fans, Retzlaff fired a Hail Mary, but it came up short because his offensive line somehow gave up pressure to a 3-man rush. Thus, ASU prevailed.
These results combined to give us a 4-way tie at the top of the conference standings. Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, and Arizona State are now all 6-2 in conference play. Coincidentally, none of these teams play each other next week, so they could theoretically all tie again. The Big XII avoided the doomsday scenario with Army’s loss (we could have seen the AAC and MW champions be among the top 5 conference champs, leaving the Big XII out entirely), but even still, only one team is getting into the CFP from this league. Thus, the playoffs start now in the Big XII, as the team that wins the next two games will be the one to advance.
Weekly CFP Update and Analysis
Once again, we had stability in the top 5. I still really dislike Penn State at 4, but so much craziness happened below them that I can’t really moan about it. The big error made by the committee this week was their decision to jump (7) Alabama over (8) Miami. Alabama crushed Mercer, a mediocre FCS school, while the Hurricanes had a bye week. Are you telling me that win was worth leapfrogging a 1-loss Power-4 team? I certainly don’t think so. Below Miami, 3 straight SEC teams are jockeying for position. The fact that (11) Tennessee dropped just 4 spots is good news for the conference. This week’s games, however, are not.
Our shocker came in the form of (12) Boise State jumping into a bye. I wondered how far (14) BYU would fall after suffering their first loss and evading some other close shaves. Miami only dropped 4 spots, probably due to the presence of Heisman candidate Cam Ward. Cougars QB Jake Retzlaff clearly doesn’t get the same treatment, as BYU fell 8 spots. That puts both ACC contenders, Miami and (13) SMU, above the Big XII’s highest-ranked team. As discussed above, the conference’s situation is looking dire. (17) Clemson and (18) South Carolina are still lurking, but they probably won’t be playing in title games, which limits their upside.
At the bottom of the top 25, I found it odd that (23) Missouri didn’t drop even 1 spot after losing to the Gamecocks. On a more positive note, I was excited to see 4 Group-of-6 teams in the rankings. Along with Boise State and (19) Army, (20) Tulane moved up 5 spots, while (24) UNLV joined the party. Tulane is an interesting one; with Army’s loss, a Green Wave team with an AAC title could be within striking distance if the Big XII implodes further. The Broncos seem to be on solid footing as long as they do indeed win the Mountain West. Many of these teams have just 1 game left; time for making moves is running out.
Evaluating the Top of the 2025 Edge Rusher Class
Among football’s most premium positions, you obviously have QBs at the top, but after them, you’re probably looking at tackles or edge rushers (QB protectors and QB hunters, respectively). I’ve heard plenty of times that this is a “loaded” class of pass rushers, so I wanted to dive into it and see what prospects we should be keeping an eye on. For the first time in a while, we had no edge rushers taken in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Based on my own evaluations and what team sources have said, we might be facing the same situation this time around. Premium offensive prospects are part of this, but I also see no slam-dunk DE or OLB.
I want to emphasize that there are some very good ones available. If you’re looking for a prospect like the Bosa brothers or Myles Garrett though, I don’t have anyone in this class graded at that level. Another thing I noticed is that nobody seems to agree on the order in which this year’s prospects should be ranked. I’m going to take my swing at it here, but note that this list will be fluid and will likely change over the coming months. When I rate edge rushers, I’m looking for both production and potential. I want to see a player who has taken QBs down in college, but I also want the athleticism required to succeed in the NFL.
The guy with the most prototypical build is Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton. He is a power player who had 10 sacks in 2023 but has just 5 so far this year. Inconsistency is the biggest knock on him, but his developmental potential is the highest in the class. A slightly undersized rusher with lightning quickness is Penn State’s Abdul Carter. Often compared to Micah Parsons due to their builds and the fact that Parsons also went to PSU, Carter is a speed rusher who has earned 8 sacks this season by simply being too fast for opposing tackles. Some have him as the first edge player off the board, but he isn’t a guarantee.
A player with little production but plenty of potential is Mykel Williams of Georgia. He has just 3 sacks this year and has never topped 4.5, which scares me. On the other hand, he has plenty of speed and power, so teams that like “traits” will drool over him. If you want production along with your traits, check out Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. He has 17 sacks over the past two seasons, but he needs to add weight to play the run better. His explosion is excellent, and I think of Brian Burns when I watch him play. Burns is a great player who generates tons of pressure, and I think Pearce could have that impact.
One player with almost no buzz that I really like is Kyle Kennard of South Carolina. A bit of an older prospect as a 5th-year senior, Kennard flashes on tape whenever I watch the Gamecocks. I like a couple of things about him. First, he’s on an upward trajectory, steadily improving each year. He has 11.5 sacks this season, which is a career high but not in a fluky way. The other aspect of his game is that he blows up players in the run game. Kennard clearly learned that from former SCAR player Jadeveon Clowney. I doubt Kennard goes in the first round, but that just means some team is going to get quite the steal.