2024 College Football: Week 12 Takeaways
The CFP committee ruffled a few more feathers this week, but a lot of this stuff will figure itself out as the top teams compete against each other. As we’re increasingly likely to see, the bulk of the action took place in the SEC. With 9 SEC teams ranked in the top 25, that’s practically a given. Next week should be more Big Ten-heavy. Like last week, I’m going to be dividing these takeaways among the playoff race, draft prospects, and other action around the FBS. You might just see a certain conference I like make an appearance. But no more spoilers; come check out my week 12 takeaways for yourself!
SEC Battles Live Up to Their Billing
While some SEC teams had their annual FCS games (hope you enjoy those paychecks Mercer and Murray State!), others are still in the meat of their conference schedules. Four games this week fit that description, and each one was competitive. (3) Texas won 20-10 in Arkansas, and although the Longhorns led throughout, the Razorbacks never fell behind by more than 2 scores. It was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. Texas QB Quinn Ewers (20/32, 176 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Jaydon Blue (14/83) were both efficient, and the defense excelled. We’ll discuss one of these defenders a little later.
(22) LSU and Florida both entered with 2-game losing streaks. However, the Gators got QB DJ Lagway (13/26, 226 yards, TD) back from injury, and he made a difference. Despite the Tigers possessing the ball for a ridiculous 41:43, Florida didn’t trail once and eventually pulled away 27-16, while the Tigers fought themselves. Florida recently announced that HC Billy Napier would return next year, much to my disbelief. Watching this game though, I can see the foundation he’s building. I think he deserves another year. As an aside, I still don’t know what ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr sees in LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier. That accuracy is not NFL-quality.
In our second-biggest battle of the day (23) Missouri went on the road to face (21) South Carolina. After an early Missouri FG, the Gamecocks dominated to take a 21-6 lead. However, the Tigers, armed with QB Brady Cook (21/31, 237 yards, TD, INT) back in the lineup, stormed all the way back to take a 30-27 lead with 1:02 to go. SCAR QB LaNorris Sellers (21/30, 353 yards, 5 TDs, INT) had his best game throwing the football and led a 47-second drive that ended in a punishing TD for RB Raheim Sanders (19/53; 3/21/1 receiving). In this 34-30 win, we learned that Mizzou is good, but SC might be the best 3-loss team out there.
Finally, in our marquee matchup, (7) Tennessee had to go to (12) Georgia to battle a reeling but angry group of Bulldogs. Against a recently stingy Volunteer defense, Georgia QB Carson Beck (25/40, 346 yards, 2 TDs; 3/32/1 rushing) had his best outing. Though he had some accuracy issues early, he rebounded well and finished with a clean game. His counterpart, Nico Iamaleava (20/33, 167 yards), did not fare as well. Though he played injured, Iamaleava has not been at his best against good opponents. Georgia’s CFP path is now much clearer, while the Volunteers probably can’t afford another loss due to the timing of this one.
(6) BYU Undefeated No More After Home Loss to Kansas
This was bound to happen at some point. It seems like BYU has cheated death at least 3 separate times, but they couldn’t pull off a 4th Houdini act. Kansas, a disappointing 3-6 team, beat the Cougars last season, but they weren’t expected to challenge them in this game. Here is my warning: beware a 6-loss team whose bowl game hopes are hanging by a thread. A team with their backs against the wall can be very dangerous. I don’t need to give you a historical analysis to prove that point though. Just look at what these very Jayhawks did against then-#17 Iowa State one week ago. With that in mind, I doubt BYU took Kansas lightly.
An immediate TD drive spearheaded by RB Devin Neal (14/52/2) put the Cougars on notice. As in the past few games though, the BYU offense sleepwalked through the first quarter. With a 10-10 halftime score, both teams knew that earning a win here wouldn’t be easy. The defenses played their hearts out. Neither Kansas’ Jalon Daniels (12/19, 169 yards, INT) nor BYU’s Jake Retzlaff (18/28, 192 yards, TD, INT) had a great day throwing the football. The Cougars had an easier time running the ball (162 yards at 4.8 YPC) but did not do so consistently throughout the contest. We did see a clean game, with just 2 penalties for 10 yards by each team.
The main difference for BYU in this particular game was that the lucky bounces and magical plays weren’t on their side. As an example, Kansas attempted a pooch punt, and the ball hit a BYU player in the head for a turnover. The Jayhawks converted the lucky play into a TD. In fact, that score made the score 17-13, which ended up as the final. On a related note, it was Kansas who came from behind in the 4th quarter. Usually, BYU does that trick. They almost did so again, but facing 4th and 6 at the Kansas 11, the Cougars committed a false start. Retzlaff threw short of the sticks with under a minute left, and BYU lost.
For Kansas, the implications here are simple: they can still reach a bowl game if they win their last two matchups! Defeating Colorado and Baylor won’t be easy, but neither was beating ISU or BYU. The Jayhawks aren’t dead yet. BYU has a much murkier future. A 12-0 regular season would’ve gotten them into the CFP regardless of what happened in the Big XII title game. Instead, they could theoretically have 2 or more late-season losses. Winning out is the clear goal here because that would secure a playoff spot. The margin for error has never been thinner for the Cougars though, and another slip-up could doom them.
Buffalo Outlasts Ball State in OT MACtion Thriller
As I alluded to in the intro, I love my MACtion. No matter how good these MAC teams are, they always seem to put on an exciting show. They also play in the middle of the week, so what’s not to love? Buffalo and Ball State started the game with 75-yard and 81-yard TD drives, respectively, and we were already rolling. During this back-and-forth affair, the 3-6 Cardinals actually had the upper hand most of the time. They won the turnover battle 3-1 and held a 7-minute time of possession edge. This was MACtion though, so not much else was normal. For instance, the teams combined for a 38-point second quarter. That’s fun! But abnormal.
With all this scoring, you might think that the defenses didn’t bother showing up. On the contrary, a few players on that side of the ball stood out! Bulls LB Red Murdock racked up 19 tackles (1.5 TFLs), while Cardinals DB DD Snyder earned 2 INTs and returned them a combined 61 yards. After those two INTs, which came on back-to-back Buffalo possessions and directly led to 10 Ball State points, it seemed like the Cardinals had this game locked up with a 45-31 lead and 7:08 on the clock. Bulls QB CJ Ogbonna had other plans, and he scored a 26-yard TD to cut the deficit to 45-37 (my hated 2-point attempt failed).
Buffalo scored again and this time made their 2-point conversion, sending us to OT! After Ball State scored an FG, Ogbonna (19/37, 264 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; 7/55/2 rushing) found RB Lamar Sperling for a 14-yard TD catch on his only reception of the game to win 51-48. Ogbonna and RB Al-Jay Henderson (27/126/2, FUM) led a potent rushing attack, but WRs JJ Jenkins (8/131/1) and Victor Snow (6/74/1) provided much-needed balance. On the other side, QB Kadin Semonza (25/37, 327 yards, 4 TDs, INT; 4/53 rushing) did everything, leading his team in both passing and rushing. It’s too bad that he couldn’t also play defense.
When you give up 45 points in regulation, it’s hard to win. As both teams managed to that, somebody had to come out on top. In this case, it was the team that got hot in the second half. Truthfully, we can also say that the better team emerged victorious. The Bulls are now a 6-4 squad with a 4-2 conference record and bowl eligibility. Unfortunately, this loss means that Ball State will not be going to a bowl game, but they’ve been highly competitive in their last 6 games. Things are not all dire in Muncie. Buffalo will now try to reach the MAC title game, but they’ll need help. Three teams have 5-1 conference records at this time.
Weekly CFP Update and Analysis
Let’s start with what I hated the most: how did (13) Boise State and (14) SMU each drop a spot without playing? The lesson here is that late bye weeks are detrimental to a team’s chances, which is absurd. The committee is supposed to look at a full body of work. Instead, they continue to overprioritize late-season events. I understand that you want the best teams NOW, but not playing does not mean you got worse. Both the Broncos and Mustangs were tested this week, though both ended up winning by multiple scores. Somehow I feel like the committee is going to drop them again for no apparent reason.
I had no issues with the top 3, though (1) Oregon had a really close call against Wisconsin. (4) Penn State remains overrated; who have they actually beaten? It’s good to see (5) Indiana and (6) BYU getting some respect as (previously) unbeaten Power 4 teams. Alas, the Cougars now have a loss and might plummet in the rankings. (9) Miami only dropped 5 spots after finally losing one of their close games, which demonstrates the respect the committee has for QB Cam Ward. Conversely, (12) Georgia fell 9 spots, which seemed too harsh. The Bulldogs eating up on (7) Tennessee this week (see above) probably proved that point very clearly.
Three different teams that moved up 3 spots this week went on to eliminate themselves days later. (16) Kansas State, (18) Washington State, and (19) Louisville all lost, bringing the Wildcats and Cardinals to 3 and 4 losses, respectively. The Cougars only have two losses, but their lack of an actual conference (the two-team Pac-12 does not count) means they can only make the CFP field as an at-large team. A second loss this late in the season probably prevents them from cracking the top 12 in a few weeks. (22) LSU is definitely out with 4 losses, as is (23) Missouri with 3 defeats.
Boise State remains the favorite for the Group of 5 slot. With Louisiana losing this week, only (24) Army and (25) Tulane really have a shot at wrestling it away from the Broncos. However, it seems as though the committee doesn’t want Boise State making it into the playoff as anything but the default 12-seed earmarked for the 5th-best conference champion. Among the teams on the outside looking in, SMU, (15) Texas A&M, and (17) Colorado have real shots. They all have paths to winning their conference championships, but the Aggies have a tougher road as SEC members. Regardless, expect a lot more shuffling on Tuesday!
Texas DT Alfred Collins on the Rise in NFL Draft Circles
The Texas Longhorns have boasted a formidable defense this year, but one player who has caught my eye is DT Alfred Collins. I started watching him more closely last week when he batted a couple of passes at the line of scrimmage, showcasing both athleticism and high football IQ. This week against Arkansas, he earned 7 tackles (2 TFLs) and one ridiculous sack. Collins used his strength to break through a double-team block, but he didn’t merely flush QB Taylen Green out of the pocket. He used his explosiveness to convert the play into a takedown of Green before the passer even knew what hit him
As always, when a player pops off the screen like that, I look around to see what people are saying about him. The consensus has been that Collins is a 3rd-round pick at best with strong developmental traits. He said before returning to the Longhorns for his senior season that he came back because he wanted to finish his degree and boost his draft stock. The former is noble, but latter turned out to be very smart. Collins was stuck behind great players like Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat the last few years. The 2024 season has given him the chance to become a star, and he’s taking full advantage of his opportunity.
At 6’5″ and 320 LBs, he probably profiles as a nose tackle at the next level. That position has been devalued lately, but NFL teams are learning how important NTs are. Based on that defensive alignment though, Collins has not had many opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. The above-described sack was actually his first of 2024. His tackles (35) and PBUs (4) are already career-highs though. NFL GMs are looking for upside in the draft, and I believe Collins has plenty of that. If he can stack a few more performances like these past two, he can possibly make it into the second round this April.