2024 College Football: Week 10 Takeaways
The wait is almost over: the CFP releases their initial playoff rankings this Tuesday. This is a week later last year’s first rankings, but the committee has more to evaluate with 12 teams now making the field. For this week, I’m going to be focusing on the games that will impact the playoff picture. That means a lot of ranked teams and some major upsets. Two teams each in the Big XII and ACC went down, and a top-10 in the SEC suffered the same fate. Another barely scraped by. Finally, we had another huge Big Ten showdown that went approximately as expected. Let’s go through all the action in my week 10 takeaways!
(4) Ohio State Beats (3) Penn State Again, Exposing Nittany Lions
Every time these two teams play, the game is billed as a heavyweight matchup. Yet every time I watch, I witness the same result: Penn State coming up short. OSU beat the Nittany Lions for the 8th straight time, and don’t be fooled by the rankings. The Buckeyes are only lower because they had to face (1) Oregon already, whereas Penn State has not faced any of the elites. While OSU did not blow Penn State out, many teams would have won if gifted the mistakes that the Buckeyes made. PSU is not one of those teams, and they have not been one during the tenure of HC James Franklin.
At first, things went Penn State’s way. They scored a field goal on their opening drive and then added a pick six to take a 10-0 lead. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions added just one field goal the rest of the game. QB Drew Allar (12/20, 146 yards, INT) played terribly, as he tends to do in big games, and the rushing attack didn’t help much. Backup Beau Pribula threw one pass for 4 yards, and I thought (and hoped) that we might see more of him given his performance last week. We did not. The only truly effective offensive player was TE Tyler Warren (4/47 receiving; 3/47 rushing), which should not surprise readers of this site.
Buckeyes QB Will Howard (16/24, 182 yards, 2 TDs) didn’t have his best day. Along with the pick six, he lost a fumble in the end zone for a touchback. However, he bounced back and put up 20 points, and the defense took care of the rest. CB Davison Igbinosun picked Allar off in the end zone, and the unit only allowed 6 offensive points. That made it an easy 20-13 win for OSU and keeps the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title hunt. Now that the playoff has 12 teams, Penn State should be in it if they win out. I just don’t see them advancing very far in a competition that only has good teams.
Florida QB Injury Spares (2) Georgia from Pathetic Loss
While fans flock to Jacksonville every year for the annual showdown between Florida and Georgia, nobody expected much of a contest this time around. Instead, we learned one important thing: the Bulldogs have a Carson Beck problem. The Georgia QB has been absolutely awful this year; he had 6 INTs all of last season, but he’s up to 12 now in 2024. That’s because he tossed 3 more in this game. Under different circumstances, that might’ve led to an upset loss. On this day, however, the Bulldogs got lucky. Already down QB Graham Mertz for the season, freshman DJ Lagway (2/6, 47 yards, TD) injured his hamstring and left on a cart.
In came another freshman, Aidan Warner, who was frankly dreadful. While Lagway wasn’t completing many passes, he at least moved the offense and led to 13 points. Warner went 7/22 for 66 yards and an INT, mustering 7 points in his 2 quarters of action (those points came on a run-heavy drive). Florida had a 13-6 halftime lead because of Beck, but they couldn’t hold Georgia off forever. The one time the Gators threatened to score, a bad snap ruined a 51-yard FG attempt and sent the ball all the way back to the Florida 36. Georgia scored 3 plays later. Once the Bulldogs went ahead, Florida had no chance of catching them.
Beck’s stats (25/40, 309 yards, 2 TDs) don’t look awful, but a couple of dump-off TDs boosted his final numbers. The final score, 34-20, looks solid as well. You have to remember though that two of Georgia’s TDs came on short fields due to Gator mistakes, and RB Nate Frazier (19/82/1) was excellent. Throwing 3 picks would not have worked if Lagway remained in the game, as he was taking care of the football. Georgia’s pedigree and resume look good, but they aren’t playing like a #2 team. One final aside: I’m sorry for Florida HC Billy Napier. This rivalry win was likely his once chance to save his job, and an injury ruined it.
(11) Iowa State, (17) Kansas State Upset by Unranked Big XII Teams
Two of the top 3 teams in the Big XII race suffered unexpected losses this week, including an undefeated squad. Iowa State, who had a couple of close escapes but has won every game this season nonetheless, hosted Texas Tech. At 5-3, the Red Raiders have been respectable, but they became more dangerous with the return of QB Behren Morton. Morton (21/40, 237 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had a few plays where he looked rusty, but he brought an explosive element to the offense. WR Josh Kelly (8/127/2) benefitted greatly, as did RB Tahj Brooks (25/122/1), who saw less defenders stacked in the box throughout the game.
This game was more about the uncharacteristic mistakes made by the Cyclones though. Iowa State entered as the nation’s least-penalized team, but they had 8 poorly timed fouls for 59 yards against TTU. On a 3rd and 10 play at the TTU 32, they ran a QB run with Rocco Becht (23/39, 299 yards, 2 TDs, INT), who lost a yard. The odd call set up a 51-yard FG attempt, which K Kyle Konrardy shanked. Those little errors mattered in a 22-17 game, where the missed opportunities allowed Texas Tech to take a 23-22 lead with a TD and win by that score. The drive was great, but at 25-17, it could only have tied the game at best.
This was a big blow for the Cyclones, but fortunately for them, their Big XII title game hopes didn’t completely go up in flames because Kansas State had a meltdown of their own. On the road against a struggling Houston team, the Wildcats looked sluggish out of the gate. Aside from a 13-point second quarter, they never got out of their funk. QB Avery Johnson (23/39, 238 yards, TD) threw 2 INTs and still isn’t great as a passer. They’ll never admit it, but the Wildcats must miss Will Howard right now. KSU fumbled 3 times as well; none of those were lost, but they still went down as wasted plays the team couldn’t afford.
KSU’s defense didn’t help matters by allowing Houston QB Zeon Chriss, in just his second start for the Cougars, to go a perfect 11/11 passing for 103 yards and a TD while running 22 times for 75 yards and another score. Conversely, the Houston defense focused on stopping the run (2.6 YPC) and making Johnson throw, which paid off. Still, the talent disparity had the Wildcats up 19-10 in the 4th quarter. Two TD drives that came off off KSU mistakes carried the Cougars to a 24-19 win and might have knocked the Wildcats out of the top 25. Who’s the big winner here? BYU, the only undefeated team left in the Big XII.
(20) SMU Obliterates (18) Pittsburgh, (11) Clemson Falls to Louisville
Don’t think that the upset bug spared the ACC. One was only technically an upset, as the lower-ranked Mustangs actually played Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite. The oddsmakers knew what they were doing with this one, as SMU started fast and never looked back. Don’t even examine the 48-25 final score; most of the second half was garbage time as SMU led 31-3 after two quarters. Perhaps surviving a 6-turnover fiasco last week made the Mustangs feel like they were playing with house money because they looked great and played freely. That started with a 3-0 score in the turnover battle.
QB Kevin Jennings (17/25, 306 yards, 2 TDs) had quite a bounce-back game, and RB Brashard Smith (23/161/2) feasted on the ground. Defensively, the Mustangs held Pitt QB Eli Holstein to 248 passing yards and an INT, with most of the yardage coming in garbage time. The 7-0 Panthers couldn’t run the ball or stop SMU in either phase, and you might argue that their undefeated record was a mirage. None of those wins look particularly impressive in hindsight. SMU, who remains unbeaten in conference play, is now the favorite to face (5) Miami in the ACC title game because of the other unexpected ACC result from week 10.
Clemson, who came in ranked 11th (they and Iowa State tied in AP ranking points, so we had two #11 teams and no #12), had also been 5-0 in conference play. Oddly enough, none of Miami, SMU, and Clemson play each other, so if the Mustangs and Tigers won out, it would likely have been Clemson facing Miami. Instead, they laid a big egg at home against Louisville. While the Cardinals struggled somewhat through the air (QB Tyler Shough had just 156 passing yards and no TDs), they did major damage on the ground. RB Isaac Brown had 20 carries for 151 yards and a TD, while the team finished with 210 yards and 3 rushing TDs overall.
It looked like Clemson’s defense just broke after too many poor offensive possessions. QB Cade Klubnik threw 56 passes for just 228 yards and a TD. The bulk of his production came late with the game out of reach. RB Phil Mafah (30/171/2) gave his team a chance, but nobody else did much. Clemson didn’t even commit a turnover; they simply did nothing productive until 2 late TDs made the final score a less-appalling 33-21. Shockingly, this was Louisville’s first ever win over Clemson, so congratulations to them! The Tigers were once again doomed by their offense and might be on the outside of the playoff bracket looking in.
South Carolina Dominates (10) Texas A&M Despite QB Change
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: South Carolina jumped in front of an SEC opponent. They did this against Alabama but came up short. The Gamecocks did so again versus Oklahoma and blew them out. This was another lopsided score, but the game was close for three quarters. SCAR laid down an early gauntlet with an 11-play, 75-yard TD drive. TAMU compounded the problem by going on 4th and 1 at their own 34, where they got stuffed. South Carolina scored again two plays later. Things weren’t smooth sailing from there. A fumble and some unproductive possessions let the Aggies tie the score at 20.
A few factors would end up being the difference. First, the Gamecocks committed 0 first-half penalties and just 3 overall (one was an intentional delay of game). Second, the defense, particularly LB Debo Williams, caused chaos in short-yardage situations. Two 4th-and-1 attempts by TAMU ended with turnovers on downs, while several more came on earlier downs but were equally fruitless. Finally, South Carolina dominated with their rushing attack. QB LaNorris Sellers (13/27, 244 yards, 2 TDs; 15/106/1 rushing) had his first 100-yard rushing game, and RB Raheim Sanders (20/144/2; 5/92 receiving; FUM) was exceptional.
The Aggies, led by a defensive coach in Mike Elko, surrendered 244 rushing yards and allowed an average passing attack to produce a 100-yard WR (Joshua Simon, 4/132/2). As we expected from last week, Elko made the switch to Marcel Reed at QB, and that went decently enough. The freshman completed 18/28 passes for 206 yards, a TD, and an INT, and he ran for 46 yards. He wasn’t amazing, but I wouldn’t pin this 44-20 loss on him either. His teammates let him down, and most QBs would’ve struggled to emerge victorious here. Alas, this loss really dampens TAMU’s playoff hopes, which might now require an SEC championship.