2024 College Football: Final CFP Picks

We’ve finally made it! All the games (except bowls) have been played, we know the conference champions, and we’re about ready to find out who made the CFP. Before the committee releases the official results, I wanted to share who I thought should be in and the order in which they should be ranked. I am most certainly not going to align with the CFP committee, and I’ll point out those cases where they arise. Unfortunately, my selections mean nothing in the real world of college football. It’s just fun to discuss, because everyone has their own opinion. Before we lay out my final CFP picks, let me lay out some ground rules.

First, these are seedings, not rankings. For example, Boise State is not my #4 overall team, but they’re seeded 4th because they’re the 4th-ranked conference champion. Additionally, the top 5 conference champions must be in the top 12 (that’s a CFP rule). Next, nobody can fall out of the top 12 for losing an extra game that their competition didn’t play (otherwise Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin was correct). Similarly, I won’t drop a team that lost this weekend below a team that didn’t play a 13th game. If I didn’t think a team belonged where the committee had them in the first place, then that supersedes the above rule. Got all that? Then let’s go!

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0, Big Ten Champions)

I doubt anyone will argue about this ranking. The only undefeated team in the country, Oregon won the Big Ten over the committee’s third-ranked team in Penn State. The Ducks have a Heisman candidate in QB Dillon Gabriel, weapons all over the field, and strong cornerback play. I’m growing very concerned about their run defense, but it hasn’t cost them yet even against top-10 teams. HC Dan Lanning is arguably the best young coach in the nation, and these Ducks should be favored as we move forward. Oregon thrived in a very deep confidence, and they’re the clear #1 seed. Even the committee can’t mess this up.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2, SEC Champions)

This one is a change from last week. Georgia showed serious grit by surviving an injury to starting QB Carson Beck and winning the SEC title. An 11-2 SEC champion looks a lot better than a 3-loss at-large team and cements the improvement Georgia has shown. In the middle of the year, they looked somewhat terrible. Recently though, they’ve mostly turned things around. I still haven’t seen both the offense and the defense shine at once, but the potential is there to produce a special team. This seeding isn’t about potential though; it’s simply the spot where the second-best conference champion goes.

3. Boise State Broncos (12-1, Mountain West Champions)

I’m hearing talk of possibly jumping Arizona State over Boise State in the rankings. With Clemson beating SMU, both now get byes, so the effect of that leap wouldn’t be as great. However, it would still be asinine. This is a one-loss conference champion that just dominated the #20 team in the country (UNLV). They have a 3-point loss to Oregon, who hasn’t lost to ANYONE yet, and 12 other wins. Is their schedule that impressive? No, but they’ve been plenty good against whoever they’ve played. I don’t have the Group of 6 bias that the committee clearly does. Let’s give these Broncos, especially star RB Ashton Jeanty, their due.

4. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2, Big XII Champions)

Clemson did the Sun Devils a solid, bumping them up to the 4th conference champion’s spot by knocking off SMU. Arizona State earned much of this on their own though. Winners of 6 straight, they thoroughly dominated Iowa State to win the Big XII title. Their defense has improved down the stretch, while the offense runs well through RB Cam Skattebo. No team other than Oregon and Notre Dame are entering the CFP as a hotter group. Hopefully the bye won’t have them rusty. The committee might consider Clemson here (or in place of BSU), but I’m not putting a 3-loss team ahead of either of these other champions.

5. Texas Longhorns (11-2, SEC At-Large Bid)

Texas’ loss in the SEC title game hurt, as they will no longer receive a first-round bye. I don’t know how far the committee plans to drop them, but my rule is that they can’t follow below a team that didn’t play this weekend. That leaves #5 as their floor in these rankings. Truth be told, the Longhorns have only lost to one team this year. It just happened to be Georgia, and they did it twice. I still consider them one of the top 5 teams in the nation…so long as they don’t face the Bulldogs again. They’ve done really well in their first year as SEC members, and I would pick them over most other teams.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1, Independent At-Large Bid)

Not being a member of a conference prevents you from having any chance at a first-round bye. However, it protects you from the pitfalls of possibly losing in a 13th game (pitfalls that I don’t think should exist). I paused for a moment to consider that week-2 loss to Northern Illinois, but the Irish have won 10 straight since then and have been a really good team in their 11 non-MACtion contests. That includes wins over a really good Army team and Texas A&M. It’s not just that Notre Dame has been winning; they’ve been blowing teams out with regularity. We’ll see how they do against other elite teams, but I think they belong.

7. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2, Big Ten At-Large Bid)

Ohio State had two losses this year, and I view them very differently. Their 1-point defeat against Oregon was completely respectable and showed the Buckeyes’ strength if anything. Losing to a struggling Michigan team though…that hurts. How much can I really punish OSU though given that I had them in the top 3 before? This is still an extremely skilled team that can compete with absolutely anyone. A little more consistency would be nice, but if the goal is to pick the best teams, Ohio State is definitely one of them. I’m assuming their Michigan issue is more of a mental block, so the Buckeyes should bounce back.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2, Big Ten At-Large Bid)

Please note that I did not drop Penn State from their CFP ranking of #3. I’ve been on the record as a nonbeliever in the Nittany Lions, so I never had them quite as high. However, their effort against Oregon in the Big Ten title game showed me a lot, and so I actually moved them up over Indiana (both were 11-1 prior to this weekend). Do I trust QB Drew Allar or that defense when it matters most? Definitely not. I can’t deny that the Nittany Lions have a ton of talent though, and if they’re firing on all cylinders, they can give opponents major headaches. A Power 4 team with just one regular-season loss is in comfortably.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1, Big Ten At-Large Bid)

Here’s why I always say that these are my personal rankings and not projections. I am not jumping Indiana over Tennessee here; I simply had the 1-loss Hoosiers ahead in the first place. Their loss against Ohio State wasn’t pretty, but as I explained in my takeaways for that week, it wasn’t quite as bad as it looked. HC Curt Cignetti has done a better job than anyone in the country, and his team only has one shortcoming on their resume: their strength of schedule. However, they played a Big Ten schedule and won 11 games. I can’t ask for anything more, and neither should the committee. Indiana is good; Google it.

10. SMU (11-2, ACC At-Large Bid)

Aside from Penn State, this is probably going to be my biggest disagreement with the committee. After SMU’s last-second loss in the ACC title game, the Mustangs are in real jeopardy of falling out of the top 12 in favor of Alabama. That would be an incredibly dangerous precedent, as you’d be actively encouraging teams to opt out of conference title games in the future. Even ignoring that, SMU clearly didn’t play their best game but nearly won anyway. They are most definitely good enough to be in the CFP, and I’ll be furious if they’re left out. I’m not even dropping them 1 spot from where I had them ranked previously.

11. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, SEC At-Large Bid)

With all the action going on in the SEC, it feels like Tennessee is the forgotten team. Losing against Georgia doesn’t seem so bad anymore (if it ever did), and this team beat Alabama, who the committee loves more than reason suggests they should. But I digress. The Volunteer offense has been maddeningly erratic. I want to draw attention to the defense though. That unit allowed 20 or more points just twice all year: once to Georgia, and once to Vanderbilt (who also beat Alabama; sorry). QB Nico Iamaleava likely limits the damage Tennessee can do, but that doesn’t mean they don’t deserve to be here. They very much do.

12. Clemson Tigers (10-3, ACC Champions)

I had planned to slot either Miami or Ole Miss here instead of Alabama. The committee made a mistake in their selection of the Crimson Tide, but that’s a moot point for our purposes. Because I kept SMU in, the team I had 12th before (without a conference championship) had to be kicked out no matter what. Part of me wanted to rank Clemson over SMU due to their head-to-head win, but that would’ve involved either jumping the only 3-loss team in my field up to 8th or dropping SMU below teams that didn’t play. Either option would’ve violated my rules, so I’m fine putting the team with the most losses in 12th.