2024 College Football: CFP Semifinal Takeaways
In our 3rd round of the CFP, seeds 5-8 battled for the right to compete for the big trophy. Notre Dame squeaked by Penn State at the Orange Bowl, while Ohio State took on Texas and won soundly at the Cotton Bowl. We had no blowouts though, which was refreshing. The winners play in the National Championship Game on January 20th, which is later than in past years because of the expanded format. I’ll stop talking now and let you go straight to my CFP semifinal takeaways! For the last time, I will remind you that these games, while technically bowls, aren’t really regular bowl games; you can find the takeaways for those right here.
Semifinal #1 at the Capital One Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame 27, (6) Penn State 24
Our first semifinal was wildly entertaining, but I wouldn’t accuse it of giving us good QB play. We’re lucky we had good anything since Notre Dame had the flu ravaging their team and Penn State had a food poisoning outbreak. Going into the game, the matchup was clear: the winner at the line of scrimmage would win the game. The Nittany Lions and their #1 rushing defense, aided by the return of DE Abdul Carter, had the better start. Notre Dame averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground, though RB Jeremiyah Love had a knee injury and thus only had 11 carries (for 45 yards and a TD). That led to a problem on drive #2.
Notre Dame’s running struggles put them in a 3rd and 12 situation. The Irish are the worst team in the Power 4 at converting on 3rd and 7 or longer, and true to form, QB Riley Leonard (15/23, 223 yards, TD, 2 INTs; 18/35/1 rushing) threw an INT on an overthrow. That led to a Penn State field goal for our first points. Neither team really had much offense in the first half, but the PSU running back duo of Nick Singleton (15/84/3; 2/33 receiving) and Kaytron Allen (19/82) starred once again, as did TE Tyler Warren (6/75; 2/21 rushing). I thought Penn State looked their best when Warren was running some wildcat plays.
As I said at the very start, the QBs didn’t have the best time. Penn State’s Drew Allar (12/23, 135 yards, INT; 6/17 rushing) missed at least 4 open receivers on high throws and threw an INT that cost the team the game on the Nittany Lions’ last possession. Hilariously, it came mere seconds after the commentators extolled his decision-making. Allar would’ve had two more INTs if PI penalties hadn’t negated them; both fouls were debatable, with one being a particularly bad call. Leonard didn’t have as much success on the ground as usual, and he left the game before halftime for a concussion evaluation (he returned after halftime).
In his absence, backup Steve Angeli (6/7, 44 yards) led a field goal drive for ND’s only points of the half. Honestly, he played the best of all the QBs that appeared in his game. Two Irish linemen leaving injured didn’t help. Down 10-3 to start the third quarter, Leonard rebounded with a rushing TD, and Love gave the Irish the lead a bit later on a 2-yard TD run that was a Herculean effort. Every time Notre Dame did something though, Singleton responded. His scores put PSU back up 24-17, but WR Jaden Greathouse (7/105/1) tied the game again when DB Cam Miller fell down. That was the longest passing play of the season for ND.
Allar’s fateful INT came after that, and I thought Notre Dame made a really good call to throw on the subsequent third down after PSU crowded the line of scrimmage. The Irish were really good on 3rd down all game (11/17). K Mitch Jeter drilled a 41-yard game-winning field goal, sending the Irish to the championship game. Everyone kept talking about how bad the ND kicking game was this year, but Jeter is back to his excellent self now that his groin injury is healed. In converting the kick, he made the first go-ahead FG in the 4th quarter or OT of a game in CFP history (kickers were 0/4 prior to his make).
Penn State fell to 1-15 in games against top-5 opponents under HC James Franklin, and the one to blame is clear. The defense gave an admirable effort, doing a great job sacking Leonard 5 times. Carter (5 tackles, sack, 2 TFLs, PBU) played well against the run and pass despite his shoulder injury. S Zakee Wheatly (16 tackles, sack) and DE Dani Dennis-Sutton (2 sacks) were menaces. As stated above, the running game did a good job too. Only Allar failed to show up. He didn’t complete a single pass to a WR, and his inaccuracy doomed PSU in a game that was theirs to lose. I still don’t understand why he’s such a touted prospect.
Our focus should be on Notre Dame though. Coach Marcus Freeman has instilled unbelievable resilience in his team. Whenever their backs were against the wall, someone stepped up. Love pushed through his injury to provide balance to the offense. LB Jack Kiser, with 69 starts under his belt, led the team with 10 tackles and seemed to always make the key stops. Finally, CB Christian Gray snagged the INT that ended Penn State’s potential game-winning drive and set up one for his own team. Clearly, the Irish will be underdogs against Ohio State, but the team is special. Far be it from me to declare that they have no chance.
Semifinal #2 at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl: (8) Ohio State 28, (5) Texas 14
If we’re being honest, this game was probably the real national championship. Both of these teams are better than the Orange Bowl participants. One of them happens to be a good bit better than the other. Texas got the ball first and drove to the OSU 36. On 4th and 3, they passed on a 54-yard FG attempt because they don’t trust K Bert Auburn after last week. In fact, they switched kickers, but as Will Stone has never attempted an FG, the Longhorns went on 4th. The pass by Quinn Ewers went incomplete due to heavy pressure on the play. That would become a theme, as injured tackles Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams struggled.
As they’ve done each of the past two weeks, Ohio State scored on their opening drive. The fact that they did so against an elite 1st-quarter defense in Texas was notable, but how they scored also provided some insights. Texas made a concerted effort to stop WR Jeremiah Smith (1/3). They kept two deep safeties and always had one over the top of Smith, and their plan succeeded. However, it also left WR Emeka Egbuka (5/51) open over the middle, so the Buckeyes went with him. RB Quinshon Judkins (9/36/2; 3/22 receiving) finished the drive. Thereafter though, the Longhorns flexed their defensive might. With some help.
The 3 subsequent OSU drives were killed by penalties; how did RB TreVeyon Henderson not get ejected for his punch on the first one? Ohio State’s 5th drive ended in a sack of QB Will Howard. Texas took him down twice, whereas Oregon and Tennessee both failed to sack him even once. The defensive front of Texas balled out despite the result. Alas, the Buckeyes came to play on defense as well. DE JT Tuimoloau had 2.5 TFLs and killed one Texas drive by himself with 1.5 sacks. OSU’s front took Ewers down 4 times and allowed a mere two yards per rush. The pass defense also excelled aside from two major lapses.
On one drive before the half, Texas followed an Arch Manning 4th-down conversion with an 18-yard TD on a wheel route by RB Jayden Blue. That tied the game, but one scrimmage play later, with just 29 seconds in the half, Henderson (6/42) earned redemption by taking a screen pass 75 yards to the house. It was the longest play allowed this year by Texas, who had been the best in the FBS at not allowing explosives. Still, the defense rebounded by pressuring Howard into an INT to start the third quarter. The Buckeyes then had their second lapse, allowing ANOTHER wheel route TD to blue, which tied the game at 14.
Blue (4/16; 5/59/2) was actually the Longhorns’ leading receiver. The only other player to top 50 yards was WR Matthew Golden (2/51), who played sparingly after leaving injured in the first quarter. Ewers (23/39, 283 yards, 2 TDs, INT, FUM) actually played well though, and his improvisational play during the drive allowed Texas to score their first 3rd-quarter TD in 6 games. At that point though, Howard (24/33, 289 yards, TD, INT) was better. With Texas now blanketing both Smith and Egbuka, Carnell Tate (7/87) became the go-to receiver. He’d actually be the #1 option on many teams. Just not this loaded squad.
Howard made a key 4th-down run to extend a drive, leading to Judkins’ second TD. Up 7, it was time for the heart and soul of OSU’s defense to take over. That would be DE Jack Sawyer, who finished Texas off almost by himself. After batting 3 passes last week, he had two more here, none bigger than his 3nd-and-goal deflection with 2:29 remaining. On the next play, Sawyer strip-sacked Ewers and took it back for an 83-yard TD, the longest fumble return in CFP history. Actually, as ESPN’s graphic put it, “PLAYER A TEAM” made that play. Kidding aside, Sawyer has boosted his draft stock immensely during the CFP.
Ohio State’s elite goal-line defense staved off the tying drive, and Ewers threw a desperation INT to S Caleb Downs (the nation’s best safety), to officially finish things off. Texas really had a great year; losing to nobody but Georgia and Ohio State means they can hang their heads high. I think we learned a lot about OSU though. Howard, who had been 0-3 versus Texas at Kansas State, can throw a team to victory even without Smith. That leads me to my second point: how adaptable the Buckeyes are. Despite having to adapt on the fly, they have not yet trailed in the CFP. One more game like this, and they’ll be national champions.